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Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

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Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#131

Post by btilly »

throwaway613834 wrote: post #36
sololipsist wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sending a troubled kid to a great private school probably will cause the kid to do better ... However selection bias already does this Funny thing, though. We've done a bunch of studies on this and it doesn't actually help. The people who care about their kids more getting them into better schools, yes - but placing the kids of parents who don't care into better schools, no. This has been shown time and time again.…

> Funny thing, though. We've done a bunch of studies on this and it doesn't actually help. > This has been shown time and time again. One would think a link to at least one study would be appropriate here?

Here you go: http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/CullenJacobLev...

The upshot, attempting to get into a better school is correlated with doing better. Actually getting to go to the school of your choice is not.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#132

Post by dalbasal »

In education this is particularly bad. Students and parents also steer into selection bias under the assumption that peer groups are important.

But, to generalize the point into public discourse broadly: "Statistics are a problem."

A lot of public discourse revolve around quantitative arguments like this. Police shootings, women's 83 cents on the dollar, British Muslims' on Sharia, unemployment rates...

Even in the more intellectual branches of public discourse, bad arguments with a similar flavour can be the dominant ones.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#133

Post by frubar »

vostok wrote: post #122
alejohausner wrote: post #111

A while ago I read a review of a book called "The trouble with diversity" by Walter Benn Michaels. I was struck by his claim that universities serve to "launder privilege into qualifications". To me, this helps to emphasize the importance of class in America. Rich kids go to Harvard, after graduating from wonderful high schools, helped by private tutors, and, most importantly , knowing that their wealth and their par…

> I succeeded because I'm smart, not because I'm rich. This is a fair point, but in many cases you need to be rich, hard working, and smart. This is a major improvement over the old system where you just need to be rich. This is not a uniquely American phenomenon. Top universities in the UK and top grandes ecoles in France are also dominated by the middle class. I'm sure other countries are like that too if not worse…

>This is a fair point, but in many cases you need to be rich, hard working, and smart.

Like Paris Hilton, Kim Kardasian, etc.? No, rich is still the only requirement. Those other things just give you more options.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#135

Post by nichtich »

I've read the research about Stuyvesant, and several other articles with similar theme. The data and reasoning seems quite convincing. It's just I can't reconcile it with my personal experience.

All these studies seems to suggest it doesn't matter much where you go to school, everything is already decided. But I know I've learned things in school, things that I can't expect to learn quite systematically should I just teach myself. And I also know there are schools that don't teach much, where teachers are exhausted for just maintaining order and keep violence to an acceptable level. It seems pretty obvious that I wouldn't learn much in this kind of environment. Maybe I can still get to a similar level as I am today but it be would much much harder.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#136

Post by alexpetralia »

frubar wrote: post #133
vostok wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I succeeded because I'm smart, not because I'm rich. This is a fair point, but in many cases you need to be rich, hard working, and smart. This is a major improvement over the old system where you just need to be rich. This is not a uniquely American phenomenon. Top universities in the UK and top grandes ecoles in France are also dominated by the middle class. I'm sure other countries are like that too if not worse…

>This is a fair point, but in many cases you need to be rich, hard working, and smart. Like Paris Hilton, Kim Kardasian, etc.? No, rich is still the only requirement. Those other things just give you more options.

How rich?

The only requirement for what? Financial success? Celebrity?

Seems your example only applies to a very narrow demographic: wealthy socialites. Does it apply to doctors, lawyers and software engineers? How often does it apply and how often does it not?

I think these nuances are important to answer before generalizing.

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#137

Post by stared »

calebl wrote: post #103

Loved this article. It presents a compelling case that most colleges are providing near-equivalent education , and that the variance is mostly in selection bias. My only objection: at the end, the author takes issue with the fact that it's nearly impossible to get people to take selection bias into account when choosing where to send their kids. However, there's another possible factor that I think parents might be c…

I think that the main added value of prestigious universities is networking - with peers and professors alike (almost in its naked form for many business jobs).

If Mark Zuckerberg had attended some university in Slovakia (being as smart and skilled) there is no way he would have started Facebook (and it goes for every networking effect - from co-workers, through financing to reputation of place that allowed this network to grow).

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#138

Post by dsfyu404ed »

frubar wrote: post #133
vostok wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I succeeded because I'm smart, not because I'm rich. This is a fair point, but in many cases you need to be rich, hard working, and smart. This is a major improvement over the old system where you just need to be rich. This is not a uniquely American phenomenon. Top universities in the UK and top grandes ecoles in France are also dominated by the middle class. I'm sure other countries are like that too if not worse…

>This is a fair point, but in many cases you need to be rich, hard working, and smart. Like Paris Hilton, Kim Kardasian, etc.? No, rich is still the only requirement. Those other things just give you more options.

I'd lump beautiful women and gifted athletes into the "smart" category. While not necessarily the same in practice the effect of being either is basically the same as being incredibly smart except there's more luck involved. Neither are common enough to get their own category IMO

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#139

Post by AstralStorm »

spunker540 wrote: post #49
richdougherty wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying that people should judge schools based on the inputs that go into the schools rather than on any effects the schools produce in their students?

The article points out the high degree of selection bias with schools and how that can make it very difficult to make apples-to-apples comparisons between schools. I was just trying to mention ways to compare schools that won't be affected by the selection bias described in the article.

Since I cannot edit it anymore, also the self selection bias can be measured (less adequately because questionnaires bring their own problems but still).

Re: Selection bias is the most powerful force in education

#140

Post by DomreiRoam »

Nelkins wrote: post #39

A professor at the University of Rochester (my alma mater) has begun a project to better evaluate the value of a liberal arts education, and to try and quantify what impact it truly has on the career trajectories and future earnings of graduates[1]. [1] https://www.rochester.edu/pr/Review/V79N6/0304_lennie.html

I would like to read a study that evaluate the value of education for the full society. I think we need an educated public because Democracy needs it.
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