Gates Makes Largest Donation Since 2000 with $4.6B Pledge
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Re: Gates Makes Largest Donation Since 2000 with $4.6B Pledge
#2Hypothesis: From an analytical perspective, he must believe that the upside of Microsoft is limited enough, at least over the time horizon he's concerned about, to start cashing in Microsoft stock. He's a smart guy. He'd be trying to convert his holdings at the top of a value curve, right?
Re: Gates Makes Largest Donation Since 2000 with $4.6B Pledge
#3Hypothesis: From an analytical perspective, he must believe that the upside of Microsoft is limited enough, at least over the time horizon he's concerned about, to start cashing in Microsoft stock. He's a smart guy. He'd be trying to convert his holdings at the top of a value curve, right?
> He'd be trying to convert his holdings at the top of a value curve, right?
Not necessarily. He just has to believe that the return on his investment will be greater (financially, in good will, in results) than the same money would be in Microsoft.
Re: Gates Makes Largest Donation Since 2000 with $4.6B Pledge
#4Hypothesis: From an analytical perspective, he must believe that the upside of Microsoft is limited enough, at least over the time horizon he's concerned about, to start cashing in Microsoft stock. He's a smart guy. He'd be trying to convert his holdings at the top of a value curve, right?
According to the headline, he doesn’t own a large percentage of Microsoft:
“World’s richest person reduces Microsoft stake to 1.3 percent”
I believe he has diversified:
Re: Gates Makes Largest Donation Since 2000 with $4.6B Pledge
#5Hypothesis: From an analytical perspective, he must believe that the upside of Microsoft is limited enough, at least over the time horizon he's concerned about, to start cashing in Microsoft stock. He's a smart guy. He'd be trying to convert his holdings at the top of a value curve, right?
> He'd be trying to convert his holdings at the top of a value curve, right? Not necessarily. He just has to believe that the return on his investment will be greater (financially, in good will, in results) than the same money would be in Microsoft.
> he must believe that the upside of Microsoft is limited enough, at least over the time horizon he's concerned about, to start cashing in Microsoft stock.
How is that different?
If he expects to get a greater return elsewhere, that's because the upside of Microsoft is limited enough, over the time horizon he's concerned about.
Re: Gates Makes Largest Donation Since 2000 with $4.6B Pledge
#6Hypothesis: From an analytical perspective, he must believe that the upside of Microsoft is limited enough, at least over the time horizon he's concerned about, to start cashing in Microsoft stock. He's a smart guy. He'd be trying to convert his holdings at the top of a value curve, right?
The MSFT stock was transferred to the Gates Foundation, but the Foundation still decides independently when to actually sell it. It may take years. So I wouldn't read too much into the timing.
Re: Gates Makes Largest Donation Since 2000 with $4.6B Pledge
#7Earlier quoted context omitted.
> He'd be trying to convert his holdings at the top of a value curve, right? Not necessarily. He just has to believe that the return on his investment will be greater (financially, in good will, in results) than the same money would be in Microsoft.
> he must believe that the upside of Microsoft is limited enough, at least over the time horizon he's concerned about, to start cashing in Microsoft stock. How is that different? If he expects to get a greater return elsewhere, that's because the upside of Microsoft is limited enough, over the time horizon he's concerned about.
"at the top of a value curve" indicates to me that OP is expressing that he is imagining Gates seeing Microsoft's value as a line that will curve downward after this, or at least flatten out. I could be completely wrong.
So what I was trying to express to OP is that while Microsoft's value may not sink (that is, now is not at the top of any curve), the value of the investment may be rising faster in various measures than the same money in Microsoft would be.
Re: Gates Makes Largest Donation Since 2000 with $4.6B Pledge
#8Hypothesis: From an analytical perspective, he must believe that the upside of Microsoft is limited enough, at least over the time horizon he's concerned about, to start cashing in Microsoft stock. He's a smart guy. He'd be trying to convert his holdings at the top of a value curve, right?
Being a smart guy != Being a good money manager. He likely has a lot of people overseeing his funds. Moving around billions of dollars takes a long time.
Re: Gates Makes Largest Donation Since 2000 with $4.6B Pledge
#9I am not sure if I recall correctly but wasn’t there a reason where gates wouldn’t donate all of his wealth at once and needed to do it in stages ?
Also, maybe they can’t utilize all that cash at once. Therefore it would be best to be illiquid until you need the liquidity.
Re: Gates Makes Largest Donation Since 2000 with $4.6B Pledge
#10I am not sure if I recall correctly but wasn’t there a reason where gates wouldn’t donate all of his wealth at once and needed to do it in stages ? Also, maybe they can’t utilize all that cash at once. Therefore it would be best to be illiquid until you need the liquidity.
Probably because 1) he donates shares (instead of cash) due to tax reasons, and 2) the receiving party needs to sell the MSFT shares to end up with cash.
If he donated his entire stake at once, and everyone started selling, that wouldn't be good for the share price.