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Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

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Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#11

Post by AndrewKemendo »

dennybritz wrote: post #8
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #6

We did not make sudden progress in AI because our algorithms are so smart – it worked because our researchers are smart about setting up the problem in just the right way to work around the limitations of current techniques. This statement is like putting wheels and a motor at the base of the goalposts. Everyone who practices ML knows the reality that while we're not going to see AGI for a while, and these systems ar…

I agree. The point I was trying to make is not whether it is impressive or not (it is impressive!), but that the general press hype about "AI breakthroughs that will soon kill us all and need regulation" is over the top and misleading. The probably massive engineering effort that went into this is, to me, more impressive than the algorithmic innovation, if any. Progress is made with small incremental improvements, in…

I somewhat agree with that but I think the biggest (underappreciated) algorithmic improvement recently was MaskRCNN. The ability to do Segmentation and Detection in the same net is huge.

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#12

Post by derimagia »

Funnnny wrote: post #9

It worths noting that, shortly after they offer SF arcana (extremely rare item), 50 people did go and beat the bot on the spot.

Well, almost all of them did the same strategy - I'm curious once the first few "strategies" how many people will be able to beat it.

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#13

Post by taneq »

colordrops wrote: post #2

Big assumptions were made by the author of this post, the biggest being that they used an API to get access to game data rather than pixels. If the AI were limited to pixels then the achievement is much greater.

Didn't they say (or at least strongly imply) that it uses the standard DOTA bot interface?

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#14

Post by AndrewKemendo »

flamedoge wrote: post #10
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #6

We did not make sudden progress in AI because our algorithms are so smart – it worked because our researchers are smart about setting up the problem in just the right way to work around the limitations of current techniques. This statement is like putting wheels and a motor at the base of the goalposts. Everyone who practices ML knows the reality that while we're not going to see AGI for a while, and these systems ar…

> AGI has clearly taken everyone's job in 2100 and we're all just providing training data for it. This got me spooked. What will we do afterwards?

Your guess is as good as mine. Best case, is that we accept our fate as a species (that our purpose was to build AGI) and then the last 10 Billion of us are comforted in a species wide hospice type scenario until we die off.

Worst case we kill each other with weaponized AGI's for a few years until it gets smarter and abandons earth leaving us basically where we started.

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#15

Post by darod »

While the author is probably right and this is no huge breakthrough in AI/ML, it is yet another example of AI/ML being able to do an activity that surpasses a human's ability. I am still waiting for an example of how AI/ML will complement a human's life as opposed to demonstrating an area where a human can be replaced.

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#16

Post by candiodari »

> Nobody likes being regulated, but everything (cars, planes, food, drugs, etc) that's a danger to the public is regulated. AI should be too.

I hate that people actually see things this way. Regulation to prevent AIs from taking over the world will never happen, because nation states won't cooperate on such rules [1]. Additionally you can't catch people using AIs to determine their actions.

BUT what regulation can do is prevent people from competing with a few of Larry Page's and Elon Musk's businesses.

[1] https://www.rt.com/news/395375-kalashnikov-automated-neural-...

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#17

Post by thinkfurther »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #6

We did not make sudden progress in AI because our algorithms are so smart – it worked because our researchers are smart about setting up the problem in just the right way to work around the limitations of current techniques. This statement is like putting wheels and a motor at the base of the goalposts. Everyone who practices ML knows the reality that while we're not going to see AGI for a while, and these systems ar…

> AGI has clearly taken everyone's job in 2100

What would be impressive about that? How's that something to get hyped for? The ways people try to shed their humanity are already well described, and all that's left is to outsource the double think to machines that won't mind and that can't be asked uncomfortable questions about their childhood and such things. It's a straight line, moving decision making from the public to sphere to private corporations and from there to black boxes. The cause is still that some people haven't been acknowledged as babies or whatever trauma caused it; the more fanciful the cathedral the more banal the lie it covers up.

All the interesting things about that have been written decades ago, these days it's back to dwarves cheerleading naked emperors. So the people who accumulate capital because of their stunted development will win out and buy it all, removing any persons worth a damn, and any chance for any to ever get born, for good; and being at each other's throats for the rest of eternity. It's the failure of humanity, not its apex.

Just so you know.

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#18

Post by AndrewKemendo »

thinkfurther wrote: post #17
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #6

We did not make sudden progress in AI because our algorithms are so smart – it worked because our researchers are smart about setting up the problem in just the right way to work around the limitations of current techniques. This statement is like putting wheels and a motor at the base of the goalposts. Everyone who practices ML knows the reality that while we're not going to see AGI for a while, and these systems ar…

> AGI has clearly taken everyone's job in 2100 What would be impressive about that? How's that something to get hyped for? The ways people try to shed their humanity are already well described, and all that's left is to outsource the double think to machines that won't mind and that can't be asked uncomfortable questions about their childhood and such things. It's a straight line, moving decision making from the publ…

What would be impressive about that? How's that something to get hyped for?

I was being somewhat fatuous, as that is a common scare scenario. However, I do believe that it should be our goal as a human species, to create AGI as our intellectual successor. In the same way someone's child replaces them and they die, I think AGI should be our offspring and we as a species go peacefully into oblivion. It's my life's work to help see that happen.

It's certainly an "out there" philosophy, but so far I haven't had anyone really challenge the logic when I spell it all out.

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#19

Post by thinkfurther »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #14
flamedoge wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AGI has clearly taken everyone's job in 2100 and we're all just providing training data for it. This got me spooked. What will we do afterwards?

Your guess is as good as mine. Best case, is that we accept our fate as a species (that our purpose was to build AGI) and then the last 10 Billion of us are comforted in a species wide hospice type scenario until we die off. Worst case we kill each other with weaponized AGI's for a few years until it gets smarter and abandons earth leaving us basically where we started.

I'm not worried about actual AGI; infinitely powerful, not bound to the whims of any person or conglomerate. I see human atrocities born out of weakness, so I'm not worried about something that would have gain nothing from torturing or destroying us. That's assuming it can do and think everything we can, and doesn't need us as slaves. E.g. I like sparrows lots. I don't understand them, I wouldn't want them in my room, but I like seeing them do stuff on the periphery of my life. I can imagine AGI looking at us with an similarly friendly eye.

But that won't happen, whatever grows, it will grow out of the diseased now. Today Trump says "I'm a very instinctual person, but my instinct turns out to be right. Hey, look, in the meantime, I guess I can't be doing so badly, because I'm President, and you're not,", tomorrow's Trump will have infinite power over anyone at the press of a button and no uncomfortable questions to even give non-answers to. They'll hand their power over to others who really want it, people who by definition will also be dysfunctional.

As black and white as it may be, I think Erich Fromm's stuff about biophilia and necrophilia applies here, and necrophilia will win out, things staying the same and people staying as obedient as they are. No fate about it, just cowardice.

Re: Hype or Not? Some Perspective on OpenAI’s DotA 2 Bot

#20

Post by [deleted] »

candiodari wrote: post #16

> Nobody likes being regulated, but everything (cars, planes, food, drugs, etc) that's a danger to the public is regulated. AI should be too. I hate that people actually see things this way. Regulation to prevent AIs from taking over the world will never happen, because nation states won't cooperate on such rules [1]. Additionally you can't catch people using AIs to determine their actions. BUT what regulation can do…

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