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Is LIBOR, Benchmark for Trillions of Dollars in Transactions, a Lie?

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11–20 of 89 posts

Re: Is LIBOR, Benchmark for Trillions of Dollars in Transactions, a Lie?

#11
post #3

For folks who feel like they knew about this story already: read the article. LIBOR fixing is one thing. But the realization that there is no market that LIBOR measures is truly astonishing! 2021 will be an interesting year...

> there is no market that LIBOR measures Except that's not true. Interbank lending is still a $70 billion market in the United States alone [1]. Small compared to banks' balance sheets and less than the $500 billion from as recently as February 2008, but material nonetheless. Good rule of thumb in finance is to ignore Matt Taibbi. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBM027NBOG

I agree, his reporting is terribly one-sided.

Re: Is LIBOR, Benchmark for Trillions of Dollars in Transactions, a Lie?

#12

Pretty much everything that has derivatives tied to it is manipulated. Option expiries, FX fixes as well. Or it was when I was looking at it. The thing is there are derivatives that are sometimes non-linear, things with triggers and barriers. When some large enough fish has one of these (eg by taking the other side vs a customer) they have an incentive to move the rate in whatever way they can. Whether it's getting s…

> This would happen even in exchange traded options. If you knew the specifics of the settlement window, you would know when the price would go wonky.

Exchange-traded options settle on a predictable window; there's no "if you knew" to it [1]. Also, the price goes wonky near expiries because that's when delta approaches one. Market makers switch from hedging with derivatives to hedging with spot; that means jitters.

Not saying there's no fraud. But pricing going wonky around a settlement event makes sense as everyone prepares for it.

[1] http://www.dtcc.com/~/media/Files/Downloads/legal/service-gu...

Re: Is LIBOR, Benchmark for Trillions of Dollars in Transactions, a Lie?

#13
post #9

It later came out that banks had not only lied about their numbers during the crisis to make the financial system look safer, but had been doing it generally just to rip people off, pushing the number to and fro to help their other bets pay off. Written exchanges between bank employees revealed hilariously monstrous activity, with traders promising champagne and sushi and even sex to LIBOR submitters if they fudged n…

Some have been jailed. Jay Merchant, Tom Hayes, etc.

Re: Is LIBOR, Benchmark for Trillions of Dollars in Transactions, a Lie?

#14
post #8

On the one hand, LIBOR is a completely made-up number. On the other hand, so are central bank rates. If you're going to peg transactions to a made-up number, is LIBOR really any worse than anything else?

Central banks actually will lend (or take deposits) at their rate. So in that sense it's not made-up.

Re: Is LIBOR, Benchmark for Trillions of Dollars in Transactions, a Lie?

#15

Pretty much everything that has derivatives tied to it is manipulated. Option expiries, FX fixes as well. Or it was when I was looking at it. The thing is there are derivatives that are sometimes non-linear, things with triggers and barriers. When some large enough fish has one of these (eg by taking the other side vs a customer) they have an incentive to move the rate in whatever way they can. Whether it's getting s…

Retail and transactional banking have built-in incentives for honesty, at least with other banks. Banks are repeat players in a millennia old game. The banks primarily profit by charging their clients for their services. There's little upside and tremendous downside for being dishonest.

But when investment and retail banking merged, the stable system of incentives disintegrated. Before the merger, retail banking was more expensive, but it was incredibly stable; that premium was more than worth the cost. I don't see why investment banking needs to merge with retailing banking anymore than VC firms need to merge with retail banking. It just results in a chaotic system.

In an increasingly electronic age where the technical transactional costs are quickly eroding to nothing, you don't gain much efficiency by merging these roles. The remaining transactional costs are functional and specifically serve to ensure that incentives are well-aligned internally and externally. Removing those barriers merely permits people to extract all that value, diminishing the overall value of the systems and the economy in general.

Likewise, the global value of assets is so tremendous that investment firms don't need direct access to the capital within the retail banking sector. We're quickly approaching something like $100 trillion in highly liquid investments globally.

Re: Is LIBOR, Benchmark for Trillions of Dollars in Transactions, a Lie?

#16
post #3

For folks who feel like they knew about this story already: read the article. LIBOR fixing is one thing. But the realization that there is no market that LIBOR measures is truly astonishing! 2021 will be an interesting year...

> there is no market that LIBOR measures Except that's not true. Interbank lending is still a $70 billion market in the United States alone [1]. Small compared to banks' balance sheets and less than the $500 billion from as recently as February 2008, but material nonetheless. Good rule of thumb in finance is to ignore Matt Taibbi. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBM027NBOG

And Matt Levine, who said the exact same thing in an article posted in this comment thread?

But a second problem is that the banks might not even know. Libor surveys asked banks each day what they would have to pay to borrow money unsecured from other big banks, but over time the banks sort of stopped doing that, particularly in some of the more obscure combinations of tenors and currencies that nonetheless reported Libor rates. So the banks' Libor submitters would guesstimate their submissions based on deposit rates and commercial-paper rates and secured-borrowing rates and other tenors and what brokers and their buddies were telling them.

Last I'd checked Mr. Levine was pretty well regarded.

Not that it matters... We're well into ad hominem and argument from authority territory here.

Re: Is LIBOR, Benchmark for Trillions of Dollars in Transactions, a Lie?

#17

This is old news for large portions of the interest rate derivatives market, which is quickly moving towards OIS[1] rates instead, based on widely traded liquid instruments. Also, the implication that LIBOR is purposefully a scam is basically untrue. When LIBOR was first developed, it was an improvement on other interest rate benchmarks, and it also reflected current market conditions at the time, as banks actually d…

That's what the article stated - that at one point it made sense but banks found cheaper ways to get capital and slowly stopped lending to each other as much.

Re: Is LIBOR, Benchmark for Trillions of Dollars in Transactions, a Lie?

#18
post #3

For folks who feel like they knew about this story already: read the article. LIBOR fixing is one thing. But the realization that there is no market that LIBOR measures is truly astonishing! 2021 will be an interesting year...

> there is no market that LIBOR measures Except that's not true. Interbank lending is still a $70 billion market in the United States alone [1]. Small compared to banks' balance sheets and less than the $500 billion from as recently as February 2008, but material nonetheless. Good rule of thumb in finance is to ignore Matt Taibbi. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBM027NBOG

Yeah, the article flips between somewhat sensationalist black-and-white statements that imply to the less savvy reader that LIBOR is an arbitrary number decided by a secret cabal of bankers to more reasonable statements like interbank lending is falling and LIBOR is an increasingly poor choice to measure interest rates.

Re: Is LIBOR, Benchmark for Trillions of Dollars in Transactions, a Lie?

#19
post #3

For folks who feel like they knew about this story already: read the article. LIBOR fixing is one thing. But the realization that there is no market that LIBOR measures is truly astonishing! 2021 will be an interesting year...

> there is no market that LIBOR measures Except that's not true. Interbank lending is still a $70 billion market in the United States alone [1]. Small compared to banks' balance sheets and less than the $500 billion from as recently as February 2008, but material nonetheless. Good rule of thumb in finance is to ignore Matt Taibbi. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBM027NBOG

On the contrary Matt Taibbi has done some incredible work exposing the out of control culture of fraud and greed in the financial markets and the litany of fixing scandals.

Please read his work and make up your own mind.

The Libor fixing is real as is the FX rate fixing. Apologists for the banking system and governments often demand the the smoking gun in fraud and conspiracy even when its not always possible, unless at great personal cost like in Snowden, but here the smoking gun and entire armory is out in the open. Attempting now to discredit the messenger is disingenuous.

Re: Is LIBOR, Benchmark for Trillions of Dollars in Transactions, a Lie?

#20

Pretty much everything that has derivatives tied to it is manipulated. Option expiries, FX fixes as well. Or it was when I was looking at it. The thing is there are derivatives that are sometimes non-linear, things with triggers and barriers. When some large enough fish has one of these (eg by taking the other side vs a customer) they have an incentive to move the rate in whatever way they can. Whether it's getting s…

Doesn't this work as an argument against cash-settling options and futures? Owning a giant pile of call options and driving the price up during the settlement window doesn't help you any if you have to unload a massive quantity of the underlying stock.
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