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Confession of a so-called AI expert

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Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert

#51

Post by gaius »

ansible wrote: post #36
gaius wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it will. Level off - maybe. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter

Eh, we've reached a crossover point already. Various products and services have shown that DL and other ML techniques are useful and profitable to implement. And corporations can see the benefits of incremental improvements. That alone will continue the momentum, even without amazing breakthroughs.

Various products and services have shown that DL and other ML techniques are useful and profitable to implement.

Very few organisations are seeing ROI on these projects. I've seen figures showing average for every million spent the return is less than half, for the quarter of them that actually get into production...

Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert

#52

Post by HillaryBriss »

... a rigged system can’t be sustainable ...

is this even true?

aren't legacy admissions to Ivy League schools, the government protected status of Wall Street banks, generations of nepotism in Hollywood, Ticketmaster, the red-blue lock on politics, prosecution-protected city police officers, and Time Warner cable all dandy examples of sustainable rigged systems?

Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert

#53

Post by specialist »

rubatuga wrote: post #21

One of my friends is in finance, and the other in biology, and judging by the way that they talk about it, they believe that AI is about to take over the world, and they believe there is a huge monolithic black box that can solve all the world's problems. So yes, there is a huge bubble. The question is how exactly will the bubble pop? Or will it pop?

I've started paying attention to AI (again). This ML hype cycle feels like when I did optimization stuff 15 years ago. Huge interest, lots of monkey motion, then it just fell off everyone's radar.

Not equating ML to OR, directly. With today's horsepower and data sets, it is a brave new world. But we're in the elevated expectation phase of the hype cycle.

Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert

#54

Post by ericjang »

23o3o9d wrote: post #14
frgtpsswrdlame wrote: post #2

The article is an interesting mix of imposter syndrome and bubble speculation. I guess a good question is: if you know you're in a bubble and you feel like an imposter, are you right?

I sincerely feel for the author of this post, and am not really sure how to explain my reaction while still being supportive, but... Based on what the author is saying, part of me thinks imposter syndrome and bubble are both justifiable ways of thinking about what he's describing, but to me as an outsider the bigger problem it reveals is the way hiring and career development happens. Without exaggerating anything abo…

she's

Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert

#55

Post by semi-extrinsic »

wfunction wrote: post #50
burritofanatic wrote: post #46

> It’s a phenomenon that Richard Socher, the dishevelled 30-something (or 20-something?) lecturer who just sold his company for several hundred millions yet still biked to campus, mentioned in his class: “Companies keep asking my students to drop out to work for them.” Why would anyone not continually bike for commuting purposes once they are wealthy? Biking is such a joy whether you're 7 or 70, rich, or poor.

Safety concerns?

Several studies have shown that the net health benefit of bicycling to/from work is large even when you account for accidents. Not hard to believe when you hear it halves the risk of cardiovascular disease, which is the most common cause of death in the US.

E.g. these authors find the health improvement statistically increases your life expectancy by up to 14 months, while traffic accidents statistically reduce it by up to 9 days. That's a ratio of 47 to 1.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2920084/

Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert

#57

Post by wfunction »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #55
wfunction wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Safety concerns?

Several studies have shown that the net health benefit of bicycling to/from work is large even when you account for accidents. Not hard to believe when you hear it halves the risk of cardiovascular disease, which is the most common cause of death in the US. E.g. these authors find the health improvement statistically increases your life expectancy by up to 14 months, while traffic accidents statistically reduce it by…

I don't think people think in terms of life expectancy. Do you? Is a 1% chance of dying on your next ride and otherwise living 100 years equivalent to not riding your bike and living 99 years to you?

Edit regarding your comment: Oh, I see why you're confused. I didn't need to do the math because I was talking about a 1-time bike ride as an example to just get the point across -- it's already scary for 1 ride. But if you want the actual math for a lifetime, there's a ~1/5000 lifetime odds of dying in 1 year of biking. That's still pretty damn high. I don't know about you but I'd rather just give up on the 78th expected year of my life and lose the 0.1% chance of dying in the next 5 years.

Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert

#58

Post by dsfjksdf »

deft wrote: post #44

No offense to the author. But serious question: why whenever articles like this come does everyone say "oh you're not a fraud at all!!". You know what, maybe she is a fraud. If she's being honest in this post she sounds a bit like one. She's crafted the perfect resume to attract attention about AI and it works. But she doesn't really know all that much. Possible that she has severe imposter syndrome and she sounds ab…

Unless she lied on her resume, it is hardly her fault if recruiting agencies rank her resume so highly. Maybe they should fix their algorithms.

Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert

#59

Post by nnfy »

bllguo wrote: post #9

Well, I can understand why the author would come to this conclusion. A 3rd-year undergrad being called by companies and VCs for insight? I'm impressed by the author but disdainful of these solicitors. It reflects poorly on them. To me they seem like people who don't understand what's happening but are anxious not to miss out on a new wave of get-rich-quick schemes. Like other commenters have mentioned, largely due to…

>but disdainful of these solicitors. It reflects poorly on them. To me they seem like people who don't understand what's happening but are anxious not to miss out on a new wave of get-rich-quick schemes.

This is an odd point of view to have. While op may see this as pressure because of imposter syndrome, I would have DREAMED of an opportunity like this in college.

These entrepreneur may not quite understand what they're getting into, but make no mistake, they are very good at recognizing experts, both established and rising [although they do cast a wide net] and this kind of behavior drives life changing opportunities and make it substantially easier, in a difficult world, for the cream of the crop to be unlocked to exceptional success at an early age. And the rising tide helps all of us.

The smartest people in college are usually the ones who ate able to learn what they need to know outside of college on their own, once they have an income, and entrepreneurs unlock that potential.

Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert

#60

Post by bllguo »

nnfy wrote: post #59
bllguo wrote: post #9

Well, I can understand why the author would come to this conclusion. A 3rd-year undergrad being called by companies and VCs for insight? I'm impressed by the author but disdainful of these solicitors. It reflects poorly on them. To me they seem like people who don't understand what's happening but are anxious not to miss out on a new wave of get-rich-quick schemes. Like other commenters have mentioned, largely due to…

>but disdainful of these solicitors. It reflects poorly on them. To me they seem like people who don't understand what's happening but are anxious not to miss out on a new wave of get-rich-quick schemes. This is an odd point of view to have. While op may see this as pressure because of imposter syndrome, I would have DREAMED of an opportunity like this in college. These entrepreneur may not quite understand what they…

I can see your point of view as well... I would've been pretty excited to have this opportunity also.

However call me idealistic, naive, whatever - I don't like the motivations of these solicitors, even though in a pragmatic sense their actions will have positive side-effects for us (the "rising tide" you mention).

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