One of my friends is in finance, and the other in biology, and judging by the way that they talk about it, they believe that AI is about to take over the world, and they believe there is a huge monolithic black box that can solve all the world's problems. So yes, there is a huge bubble. The question is how exactly will the bubble pop? Or will it pop?
Confession of a so-called AI expert
21–30 of 102 posts
Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
> not at human level yet Not even at insect level yet. There's no doubt things will improve, and there's already great value, but I hate calling ML "AI". It's been over 70 years of ML research (specifically neural networks) and I don't know how long it's going to take to reach insect-level behavior (which is still far from basic intelligence) let alone so-called AGI (which, BTW, people in the '50s were certain is jus…
What do you mean by insect level here?
We can't make things as smart as bees.
Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert
#23One of my friends is in finance, and the other in biology, and judging by the way that they talk about it, they believe that AI is about to take over the world, and they believe there is a huge monolithic black box that can solve all the world's problems. So yes, there is a huge bubble. The question is how exactly will the bubble pop? Or will it pop?
Or how can I make money from it popping??
Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert
#24I get similar impression from other side.
I have met stanford phd having very poor math background. Yes it is true but unbelivable.
I think the problem is with higher education system not the hype.
Standford/cmu should make their degree more rigorous.
I am sure if cs231n include fisher vector in their course and some maths derivation in their assigment,the number of student would drop logarithmically :)
Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert
#25What I don't understand is how you get a gig teaching a course at Stanford while being an undergraduate student at Stanford. Is this some sort of special seminar course or something?
Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert
#26> Even though I’m one of the beneficiary of this AI craze, I can’t help but thinking this will burst. I don't think it will. Level off - maybe. I've started my work in Computer Vision with classical algorithms (SIFT features, geometry, correlation filters and things alike people were researching for decades). These really worked like garbage, it was a nightmare. Then we jumped on DL bandwagon - and CV just clicked fo…
> not at human level yet Not even at insect level yet. There's no doubt things will improve, and there's already great value, but I hate calling ML "AI". It's been over 70 years of ML research (specifically neural networks) and I don't know how long it's going to take to reach insect-level behavior (which is still far from basic intelligence) let alone so-called AGI (which, BTW, people in the '50s were certain is jus…
Actually Andrej Karpathy showed human level error on imagenet is around 5% while the winning model from 2017 had an error rate of just 2.25%.
Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert
#27One of my friends is in finance, and the other in biology, and judging by the way that they talk about it, they believe that AI is about to take over the world, and they believe there is a huge monolithic black box that can solve all the world's problems. So yes, there is a huge bubble. The question is how exactly will the bubble pop? Or will it pop?
We have seen many a bubbles in the past. The AI bubble will also burst eventually. I have a first hand experience of it in the ML/NLP world, and I can safely say it is about 30% works plus 70% hype.
Large amount of data has helped, so AI systems are better than before (with lots of training data), but that's pretty much it. It is not going to replace programming jobs, leave aside solving world problems.
Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not really a bubble from the financial risk perspective if there isn't a way to "correct" or collapse it. Machine Learning is a feature set inside an application inside a market. It's not an industry of it's own where massive swaths of an industry place their money or livelihoods, like e-commerce or derivatives. So in that sense there isn't any bubble to burst. The majority of ML applications are happening INSID…
Investing billions of dollars in companies and paying employees crazy salaries simply because their title contains the word "data", how is there no way to collapse that? One day the time comes to reap the reward and when the rewards are a lot smaller than expected funding will be withdrawn or at the very least scaled back.
Honestly? Data works. It makes companies billions of dollars. Machine learning and AI are getting increasingly good at parsing the data that already exists. It makes sense that companies, who have always made money on data, would invest in something that promises to make them even more money, and has demonstrated the ability to do just that.
Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert
#29If anyone feels like this, I highly recommend reading the book Learned Optimism.
Re: Confession of a so-called AI expert
#30The article is an interesting mix of imposter syndrome and bubble speculation. I guess a good question is: if you know you're in a bubble and you feel like an imposter, are you right?
I sincerely feel for the author of this post, and am not really sure how to explain my reaction while still being supportive, but... Based on what the author is saying, part of me thinks imposter syndrome and bubble are both justifiable ways of thinking about what he's describing, but to me as an outsider the bigger problem it reveals is the way hiring and career development happens. Without exaggerating anything abo…
s/thinking about what he's describing/thinking about what she's describing