How big oil will die • Hacker News Board

Re: How big oil will die

#161

Post by nnfy » Thu, Aug 10, 2017, 7:05 PM UTC

PeterisP wrote: post #42

nnfy wrote: post #15

OP does not understand that he is far more enthusiastic about his Prius than the rest of the world. Too much of this article is based on unsubstantiated, overly optimistic predictions, and the reasoning is regularly fallacious. Two examples: 1. OP lists expensive repairs for combustion vehicles, then suggests that because said parts do not exist in EVs, that EVs are cheaper to maintain. This is nonsense, first of all…

It's funny that you claim that "most of the parts listed almost never require repairs" when the list explicitly is the top 10 most frequent actual repairs that were performed in 2015. Also "they may require specialized equipment to maintain" is a guess that's not true, while everything requires particular tools, repairing and maintaining electric drivetrains requires less specialized equipment than ICEs.

From that same article, the average repair cost is $387/year for a typical vehicle. Nowhere near the scary list with >$1000. You feel right into OP's literary trap, which is my problem with the whole article. Overly optimistic sensationalism. 8 years to rebuild our entire infrastructure!

I'd like to see a source for the second, I think you're making the mistake OP lead you to, in the assumption that simply because of fewer moving parts, the vehicle is necessarily easier to work on.

Re: How big oil will die

#162

Post by nnfy » Thu, Aug 10, 2017, 7:14 PM UTC

pm24601 wrote: post #41

nnfy wrote: post #15

OP does not understand that he is far more enthusiastic about his Prius than the rest of the world. Too much of this article is based on unsubstantiated, overly optimistic predictions, and the reasoning is regularly fallacious. Two examples: 1. OP lists expensive repairs for combustion vehicles, then suggests that because said parts do not exist in EVs, that EVs are cheaper to maintain. This is nonsense, first of all…

1. Electric motors are cheaper to maintain. Railroads worldwide know this. ( random article: http://www.american-rails.com/support-files/locomotive_opera... ) 2. Not correct - OP is pointing to current Priuses that have exceptionally long lived batteries "Current estimates for the lifetime today’s electric vehicles are over 500,000 miles." and "But today there are anecdotal stories of Prius’s logging over 600,000 mil…

1. Electric motors are easier to repair than bus sized diesel engines in trains- not the best comparison to motors and engines that have to be shrunk down and crammed into the family sedan. I'll bet the maintnence savings margin is smaller if not gone.

2. The point is it is too early to estimate batter life with such certainty based on current battery output. Would you buy a Prius with 300,000 miles on it today? I think its a little too early to make that bet before we have regular examples of EVs lasting that long.

3. Even your example shows that there will still be demand for fossil fuelled vehicles.

Point again: are ICVs going to go extinct? Most likely. Are we going to stop using oil to fuel vehicles in EIGHT YEARS? only if you're a smug Prius driver ;).

Re: How big oil will die

#163

Post by sverige » Thu, Aug 10, 2017, 10:10 PM UTC

Pinga wrote: post #146

sverige wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You skipped the part about massive government subsidies.

here you go: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X16...

It's hard to take the article seriously since global warming accounts for 22% of the subsidies. Where did that number come from? How could it even be known?

Meanwhile, Elon Musk's subsidies are well-documented and specific.

Re: How big oil will die

#164

Post by pm24601 » Mon, Aug 14, 2017, 12:08 AM UTC

nnfy wrote: post #162

pm24601 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Electric motors are cheaper to maintain. Railroads worldwide know this. ( random article: http://www.american-rails.com/support-files/locomotive_opera... ) 2. Not correct - OP is pointing to current Priuses that have exceptionally long lived batteries "Current estimates for the lifetime today’s electric vehicles are over 500,000 miles." and "But today there are anecdotal stories of Prius’s logging over 600,000 mil…

1. Electric motors are easier to repair than bus sized diesel engines in trains- not the best comparison to motors and engines that have to be shrunk down and crammed into the family sedan. I'll bet the maintnence savings margin is smaller if not gone. 2. The point is it is too early to estimate batter life with such certainty based on current battery output. Would you buy a Prius with 300,000 miles on it today? I th…

1. If anything, smaller electric motors have an even larger advantage. Smallest ICE v. smallest electrical motor? Small ICEs have a problem with being too cold.

2. "Would you buy a Prius with 300,000 miles on it today?" - sure if its body/frame is good shape. There is no inherit life span to a machine when its parts can be replaced.

3. "still be demand for fossil fuelled vehicles" - The doubt is about "big oil" to survive with the current cost structure. Yes I bet "little oil" will have a role as a specialized fuel. In Manhattan and San Francisco, it is harder and harder to find a gas station - the land is too valuable to waste on a toxic/dangerous land use. Electric charging stations don't have the same problem that gas stations have.

I can easily see a situation where owning a ICS vehicle in major cities means having to get personal fuel deliveries (if you are rich) or having to drive outside of the town to refuel (time consuming)