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Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

economist.com

81–90 of 158 posts

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#81

Anytime you make something cheaper, easier to use, more useful and/or more efficient you get an increase in usage. Autonomous electric cars are all 4, and will lead to a dramatic increase in the number of miles driven. Some of those miles we can imagine (for instance sending your car on a dead-head journey somewhere for somebody else to use it), but most of the increase will probably be from new usage models that we…

I worry that self-driving cars are going to be used as an excuse not to expand public transit, especially in the Bay Area. The problem is scale -- once the population reaches a certain size, the roads are going to be gridlocked even if every car is self driving. I'm not sure if the Bay Area is at that point yet, but NYC certainly is, as are most of the major cities of the world.

I worry that self-driving cars are going to be used as an excuse not to expand public transit, especially in the Bay Area.

By reducing people's sunk cost in cars, it may well free up the public mind to alternative forms of transportation. A lot of political inertia comes in the form of personal sunk costs. Also, self driving vehicles could themselves be used to expand public transit. IIRC, In Portland in the 90's, there was this thing called the "Custom Bus" where an late-night adapted bus route could be formed by people phoning in a request for a pickup within 2 miles of a normal bus route. Automated vehicles and networked computers could let us do an even better job of adaptive transportation.

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.engadget.com/2017/08/09/bmw-i3-range-extender/

With a range extension of 115 miles, that's not quite the distance I'd like to see. It's fine as a proof of concept, and maybe even for a daily driver with a bit of emergency range, but not for my aforementioned trips.

> With a range extension of 115 miles, that's not quite the distance I'd like to see.

It sounds like you want a Volt. 53-ish miles of zero-emission electrical driving. If your battery dies, the gas generator clicks on, and a single tank of gas gets you an extra 315+ miles at freeway speeds.

It's not perfect. But (IMHO) it's pretty close to the best of both worlds, since the i3 isn't allowed to have a real range extender.

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#83
post #32
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think they’re cheaper yet. I’m not sure but I believe the batteries are still too expensive. Also, we might need solid state batteries before we have acceptable range and charging speed for many people. https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/253065-toyota-wants-leap... Finally, the US federal subsidy, Norway’s subsidy, etc have helped the recent models. However, the US subsidy will disappear for Tesla, for examp…

Definitely not yet. You can buy a new Nissan Versa for under $13,000. $22,000 under the Tesla Model 3 buys a lot of gasoline. Of course the Tesla is a nicer car in many ways, and a "fair" comparison would look at more similar cars, but the relative cheapness of the ICE drivetrain lets traditional cars go much more downmarket than EVs can for now. Battery costs are dropping steadily and it seems like it won't be too m…

New Nissan Leafs were selling for the same price here in Kansas City: $7,500 federal tax credit and $10,000 KCP&L rebate off a $31,000 car.

http://metroenergy.org/2017/03/10000-off-nissan-leaf-june-30...

I bought a lightly used one for $8,500.

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#84

As if ICEs are going to be replaced for emergency power generation any time soon. And with new tech coming out where regular gasoline engines can be as efficient as diesels (in fact using the Diesel cycle to a degree) if not more, you're going to find a resurgence of them in hybrid-electric vehicles. I doubt you're going to be rolling around with a solar-powered weed-eater to do your yardwork. I can guarantee you are…

> I doubt you're going to be rolling around with a solar-powered weed-eater to do your yardwork.

I wouldn't doubt that. I have a carbon-neutral wireless electric weed-eater. Throw some spinning blades on it, and it will cut down small trees too. I also have a carbon-neutral wireless electric lawnmower. And a carbon-neutral wireless electric snowblower.

You can buy all three yourself, today, in the US at almost any Home Depot store nationwide.

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#85
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hopefully Uber/Lyft start a van/bulk transit service. This would help reduce traffic by combining trips while being more efficient than buses because the server can dynamically route the driver to optimize pickups and departures. Perhaps even adding discounts for riders willing to trek the last mile on foot.

Then why isn't that being done today? As you increase the number of passengers, the cost of the driver becomes relatively trivial. It seems as if this were a service people were willing to pay for these money-losing companies are missing a significant market opportunity. I know there's UberPool but as far as I can tell it isn't a wildly popular option.

Routing. Turning an efficient set of start > points to a combined path is a complex traveling salesman problem. But this is worse as you need to find multiple such sets from raw data. It's not hard to get some overlap but if you go past 2-3 passengers everyone gets a longer trip.

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#86
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you in principle, but any city has to have the ability for delivery services and emergency vehicles to move around.

I think there are ways to deal with those things. You could have underground tunnels that allow limited motorized transit.

Boston

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#87

The Economist article fails to mention that electrical vehicles are massively subsidized by governments. The production and adoption of electrical vehicles would not exist, but for these http://dailycaller.com/2015/08/10/tesla-is-hemorrhaging-mone... subsidies. As an honest observer, the natural market forces that would influence a rational decision to adopt electrical vehicles, do not exist. The true cost of electri…

They also fail to mention how much the federal government subsidizes oil. One benefit of driving an EV is not funding the Middle East.

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#88
post #7

For most of the time, I'd be totally cool with an electric vehicle (this has changed in recent years as ranges and cold-weather performance has improved dramatically). However, that time when I'm traveling off the "grid" would be an absolute nightmare. For example - taking a vacation up in the mountains. No power, limited direct sunlight for solar, and your car is your lifeline. Or cross-country travel that isn't on…

I could manage easily without a car at home, I live in a city with good public transport and plenty of shops nearby.

For vacations though I tend to travel between two countries that have announced that all cars will be electric relatively soon. Maybe a solution for the future is a standardized small shipping container that goes with you by train to fairly near a destination then gets put on the back of something like a small electric pickup truck that you rent while there.

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worry that self-driving cars are going to be used as an excuse not to expand public transit, especially in the Bay Area. The problem is scale -- once the population reaches a certain size, the roads are going to be gridlocked even if every car is self driving. I'm not sure if the Bay Area is at that point yet, but NYC certainly is, as are most of the major cities of the world.

I worry that self-driving cars are going to be used as an excuse not to expand public transit, especially in the Bay Area. By reducing people's sunk cost in cars, it may well free up the public mind to alternative forms of transportation. A lot of political inertia comes in the form of personal sunk costs. Also, self driving vehicles could themselves be used to expand public transit. IIRC, In Portland in the 90's, th…

> By reducing people's sunk cost in cars

I love this conversation. The US new auto sales run rate is ~17 million vehicles/year, with an average price right around $35k. That's $595,000,000,000 per year in capital being allocated to automotive mobility alone. Think what better things we could do with that capital (or everyone could work far less!) if we only spent a fraction of that on automotive capital costs.

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#90

Electric car will be new smart phone. Without adding new features, electric car price can be reduce dramatically. A electric motor drive and tons of investment in battery tech can reduce entry level car price to four digit. But that is not at all wanted by industry. So automotive industry will keep adding automation and smart configurable suspension and other such nonsense to keep the price high. Good news for softwa…

Does the new car market need to offer EVs for less than $10,000 if the used market already is? I purchased my 2013 Nissan Leaf SV for $11k in 2015.

New Nissan Leafs were selling for ~$13k here in Kansas City: $7,500 federal tax credit and $10k KCP&L rebate off a $31k car.

http://metroenergy.org/2017/03/10000-off-nissan-leaf-june-30...

I bought a lightly used 2015 for $8,500 in 2017.

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