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Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

economist.com

31–40 of 158 posts

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#31
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dont' think it'll be so bad. Sure, you might not be able to do that at first as we won't have the infrastructure and accessories built for it. But we will. Folks enjoy such things. I can imagine being told: Now, as part of your trailer, you have extra energy storage, perhaps some solar capacity to refill the trailer batteries, possibly using the movement of the vehicle itself too. Trailer too much? You also have th…

A wind turbine that works as you drive? Nonsense on stilts...

Probably won't stop someone from trying to sell it to people :/.

(For those who didn't have their morning coffee today: the power that this wind turbine would capture would be (fraction of) the one coming from your car's battery. I.e. this would do nothing but increase the drag.)

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#32
post #23

Anytime you make something cheaper, easier to use, more useful and/or more efficient you get an increase in usage. Autonomous electric cars are all 4, and will lead to a dramatic increase in the number of miles driven. Some of those miles we can imagine (for instance sending your car on a dead-head journey somewhere for somebody else to use it), but most of the increase will probably be from new usage models that we…

I don’t think they’re cheaper yet. I’m not sure but I believe the batteries are still too expensive. Also, we might need solid state batteries before we have acceptable range and charging speed for many people. https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/253065-toyota-wants-leap... Finally, the US federal subsidy, Norway’s subsidy, etc have helped the recent models. However, the US subsidy will disappear for Tesla, for examp…

Definitely not yet. You can buy a new Nissan Versa for under $13,000. $22,000 under the Tesla Model 3 buys a lot of gasoline. Of course the Tesla is a nicer car in many ways, and a "fair" comparison would look at more similar cars, but the relative cheapness of the ICE drivetrain lets traditional cars go much more downmarket than EVs can for now.

Battery costs are dropping steadily and it seems like it won't be too much longer before TCO for an EV is lower than even a cheap gas car, but we're not there yet.

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#33

If I had to choose between a world where 1) everyone owned electric cars 2) no one owned cars but just hitched rides on autonomous ones and 3) no one used cars at all, I would take the third option. I think it's possible if we start building new cities designed for walking, instead of just expanding our current cities, with all the problems that presents. I think the trick would be to strictly limit their footprint t…

>I think it's possible if we start building new cities designed for walking, instead of just expanding our current cities, with all the problems that presents. I think the trick would be to strictly limit their footprint to something that would allow anyone to walk from one end to another in ~30 minutes. You can still have a big city, you just have to rely on the world's greatest form of public transportation (the elevator) and build up.

We can build new cities, or expand current ones, with concepts in place that eliminate the need for travel, but a more pressing problem that requires immediate attention is the population currently in cities.

In the given circumstances, mass public transport systems (like the one envisaged by Musk) are the best way forward, IMO.

Electric cars are the next best option, considering the overall eco-friendly nature of coal to miles drive efficiency of electrical systems, plus their suitability to go off grid.

To me one major focus point seems to be investment in technologies, concepts and constructs of nano-grids, at the level of individual communities and homes, drastically reducing fossil fuel usage. This could be a major push point for governments, and yes, problems of this scale require massive push from governments, to pull people kicking and screaming into a greener future, before it's too late. For that the world need strong leaders and forward thinkers.

To quote an example, in India, where I am from, the govt. is pushing very hard for solar power generation, to the detriment of existing thermal power plant manufacturing infrastructure. There is a lot of resentment in affected companies, vendors, operators, etc, for this move. But what has to be done has to be done. Left to their own, or to market forces, we will boil ourselves dead.

Remember, climate change has a lot of lag. It's effects are not immediate, nor apparent until it is too late. We are already seeing that now.

> Aside from the serenity of not having cars wiz around, dividing up the city and running people over, there are a bunch of other benefits. Not having to provide services to every residence makes the government's job much easier (so less government); the city would become more of a community if everyone is always walking everywhere and running into each other; you'd have more public green space since the city would be surrounded by a large green loop; and it could fit into some really amazing locations, like a lush valley, or between a lake and a mountain. You can connect a bunch of them with a hyperloop (or something as simple as a bus service).

This seems too fantastical to be made true in reality. Maybe I'm wrong, but IMO it's better we plan and do things keeping in mind the nature of the average human. After all, we still have huge swaths of population still thinking climate change is not caused or accelerated by human activities.

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if we could start charging tolls proportional to the spot congestion at any given time.

A lot of toll roads/HOV lanes already do that. They increase the price based on demand so traffic in the lane is always moving.

Didn't realize that, thanks!

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#35

As if ICEs are going to be replaced for emergency power generation any time soon. And with new tech coming out where regular gasoline engines can be as efficient as diesels (in fact using the Diesel cycle to a degree) if not more, you're going to find a resurgence of them in hybrid-electric vehicles. I doubt you're going to be rolling around with a solar-powered weed-eater to do your yardwork. I can guarantee you are…

Weed-whackers are probably not the best example. Apparently the current battery-powered ones are pretty good for typical personal home use. But absolutely for anything bigger or with a higher duty cycle (e.g. that lawn services would use).

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#36
US drivers drive 3.1 Trillions miles per year [0]. Every month, the 12 Month moving average has been going up at 5 billion miles [0]. So every month we need to install enough charging stations to charge 5 billion miles/year. Lets use a Level 2 charger that adds ~25 miles of charge per hour. So 5B miles / 25 miles of charge per hour / 24 hours per day / 365 days per year = about 23,000 Level 2 chargers need to be added every month.

There are currently about 44,000 Charging outlets in the US [1]. So just to keep up with the increase miles we drive each month, and not increase the percentage of electric vehicle miles, we need to install more than 50% as many charging outlets as have ever been installed EVERY MONTH forever. Time for that exponential curve to help us out some more.

[0]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M12MTVUSM227NFWA [1]: https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#37

If I had to choose between a world where 1) everyone owned electric cars 2) no one owned cars but just hitched rides on autonomous ones and 3) no one used cars at all, I would take the third option. I think it's possible if we start building new cities designed for walking, instead of just expanding our current cities, with all the problems that presents. I think the trick would be to strictly limit their footprint t…

I can see a city with the third option, but the whole world? What if you want to go someplace that isn't in a city? Public transportation can't cover every rural destination.

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#38
post #7

For most of the time, I'd be totally cool with an electric vehicle (this has changed in recent years as ranges and cold-weather performance has improved dramatically). However, that time when I'm traveling off the "grid" would be an absolute nightmare. For example - taking a vacation up in the mountains. No power, limited direct sunlight for solar, and your car is your lifeline. Or cross-country travel that isn't on…

https://www.engadget.com/2017/08/09/bmw-i3-range-extender/

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#39
post #7

For most of the time, I'd be totally cool with an electric vehicle (this has changed in recent years as ranges and cold-weather performance has improved dramatically). However, that time when I'm traveling off the "grid" would be an absolute nightmare. For example - taking a vacation up in the mountains. No power, limited direct sunlight for solar, and your car is your lifeline. Or cross-country travel that isn't on…

You don't even need a gas turbine. A simple ICE generator will suffice. I'd personally go for a DC generator (domestic power supply is AC), that plugs directly into the battery charging system of the car.

A few gallons of fuel can certainly add more than a 100 miles.

Re: Electric cars: The death of the internal combustion engine

#40
The Economist article fails to mention that electrical vehicles are massively subsidized by governments. The production and adoption of electrical vehicles would not exist, but for these http://dailycaller.com/2015/08/10/tesla-is-hemorrhaging-mone... subsidies. As an honest observer, the natural market forces that would influence a rational decision to adopt electrical vehicles, do not exist. The true cost of electrical vehicles for transportation far exceeds that of the internal combustion, for motive power.

I will stipulate to the fact that electrical vehicles are more efficient. But efficiency doesn't equate to "less expensive."

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