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How big oil will die

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Re: How big oil will die

#141

Post by jeffdavis »

com2kid wrote: post #97
maxsilver wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars can have ICE's strapped onto them, and it works really well. The Chevy Volt, for instance, is perfectly designed to handle the situation you described. It gives you 52ish miles of all electric range, so you can commute and grab groceries and do all of your normal driving on pure electricity. And for various road trips, it still gets 40-ish MPG for hundreds of miles without any electricity needed. It als…

> Have a regular US household power outlet anywhere in your garage or home exterior? The irony here is that people living in cities, who would most benefit from the advantages of EVs, are also more likely to live in Condos or Apartments, many of which do not have outlets in their garage. I had to rule out an EV purchase for just that reason.

That will change quickly, I think. The cost/benefit of doing so is quite good.

Even for small-time landlords, their tenants will ask "where do I charge my EV" before they sign the lease.

Re: How big oil will die

#142

Post by notyourday »

drewmol wrote: post #127
notyourday wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should ask your wife/girlfriend/daughter if she is planning on getting into a self-driving car with no ability to control it.

Or, to that point, if she's ever been in a commercial airplane. /s

With an autopilot and no one else in on an entire plane. Yup. Ask her that.

Re: How big oil will die

#143

Post by chrissnell »

vvanders wrote: post #53
chrissnell wrote: post #25

This article makes a number of flawed assumptions: - It neglects the environmental impact of battery production. - Diesel motors can be significantly less expensive to maintain and operate, even more so as the reliability of emissions-reducing technology is improved. - Battery charging is nowhere near as fast or convenient as a gas station. - Electricity must come from somewhere. Few places have steady wind and none…

> Diesel motors can be significantly less expensive to maintain and operate, even more so as the reliability of emissions-reducing technology is improved. Source? As someone who owns two diesels(1.1L 2cyl and 3.0L 6cyl) and an EV the oil changes alone make your argument invalid. You know what my highest per-mile operating cost is(including electricity)? Tires. Look, I love the simplicity of the diesel as much as anyo…

When were your diesels built? The new (last five years or so) engines are amazing--they've really come a long way with the emissions systems.

I own two diesels: a 1987 Land Rover Defender 110 with a 300Tdi (no emissions controls, ridiculously smokey) and a 2017 Ram 2500 with the 6.7L Cummins turbo diesel (cleaner than I'd ever imagined).

Re: How big oil will die

#144

Post by Dylan16807 »

oisino wrote: post #16

Talking to people behind self driving car companies the issue is not the self driving technology or laws it's more infrastructure around extremely low latency internet to make self driving cars work in the general wild. This article assumes mass adoption really quickly but who knows how quickly our general infrastructure will be updated to enable this especially in third world countries that are ramping up in traditi…

Why would the internet be involved in anything a self-driving car computes with a sub-five-second deadline?

Re: How big oil will die

#145

Post by badminton1 »

gnaritas wrote: post #138
badminton1 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is more complicated than that. There's the relative value among different currencies (exchange rates).

You're on HN, please don't assume only you understand the complexities of the world. Everything is more complicated than one simple thing, but you don't get to level that critique after claiming the value comes from oil. We're obviously talking about primary driver of value and for every fiat currency its primary value is in its tax base, not in any commodity backing. The values between currencies fluctuate short ter…

You are downplaying the role of energy as just a mere commodity.

Every single economic activity requires energy. Motorized vehicles in their majority use fossil fuels.

By restricting oil trade to a specific currency, the US has a share of every productive activity involving motorized vehicles.

Re: How big oil will die

#146

Post by Pinga »

sverige wrote: post #54
DaiPlusPlus wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Battery production, like any production, has an environmental impact - but the motivation for battery-electric vehicles is to eliminate local environmental impact (e.g. urban centres). If all of the pollution happens at a single source then it's easier to contain, reduce, and eventually eliminate. 2. Diesel fuels are still very dirty - and the reliability of petrol engines is not a big-enough problem to justify sw…

You skipped the part about massive government subsidies.

here you go: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X16...

Re: How big oil will die

#147

Post by prawn »

mikestew wrote: post #135
prawn wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The $30k will have already been spent though, right? When the ride-calling service is extremely economical, it will be a sub-$10 decision. You'll be thinking "I can take this Uber for $4, or I have to drive my car and pay for parking/valet, get gas on the way." Where I live, registration and insurance for each car is $1,500+/year. First, people won't need their second or third car. We use ours 2-3 days a week at most…

I don’t know that Uber will take down the to grocery store for $4, let alone get me anywhere useful like work. Probably someday, but not today, not in the eight years the author predicts, and probably not within my lifetime (middle-aged oldster here). I think the author’s mistake was applying iPhone timelines to cars. What the article says will happen, of that I am confident. But I think the author is off by an order…

You don't think that Uber will do local rides to the supermarket for $4 within eight years?

It would be under $10 for me now. Take out the driver and fuel and two significant costs are eliminated.

I think people will eventually have monthly passes that get the average ride down a fair way.

Re: How big oil will die

#148

Post by contingencies »

pilom wrote: post #28

Every time I see someone make the argument that "all cars will be electric by 20XX" I feel like they are incredibly sheltered from rural life. The US is HUGE! Sure the majority of commuting could be replaced by electric cars but I've seen no evidence of them being able to replace ICEs for the "I want to go skiing/kayaking/hiking (pick an activity where your car sits on the side of the road all day) 2 hours away and r…

Every time I see someone make the argument that "all cars will be electric by 20XX" I feel like they are incredibly sheltered from rural life.

Most people live in high density Asian cities. Farmers in China farm smaller plots and already use electric cars, drones and tractors.

Re: How big oil will die

#149

Post by qbrass »

maxerickson wrote: post #34
pm24601 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are ignoring history. The US is the one (of 2) major countries to: * NOT have been invaded/conquered * NOT had major currency hyperinflation/devaluation * long lasting (centuries at this point) * currency reissue/replacement The other arguable is the UK and the pound.

There have been significant foreign incursions. Not a real occupation I guess. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burning_of_Washington

Even when Canada invades, they just end up saving you from a tornado.

Re: How big oil will die

#150

Post by monodeldiablo »

com2kid wrote: post #97
maxsilver wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars can have ICE's strapped onto them, and it works really well. The Chevy Volt, for instance, is perfectly designed to handle the situation you described. It gives you 52ish miles of all electric range, so you can commute and grab groceries and do all of your normal driving on pure electricity. And for various road trips, it still gets 40-ish MPG for hundreds of miles without any electricity needed. It als…

> Have a regular US household power outlet anywhere in your garage or home exterior? The irony here is that people living in cities, who would most benefit from the advantages of EVs, are also more likely to live in Condos or Apartments, many of which do not have outlets in their garage. I had to rule out an EV purchase for just that reason.

The people who live in cities -- as the article points out -- will not need to own a vehicle. Living in a city will become even more attractive as it will be far cheaper to simply hail a fleet vehicle than to own your own car. When this shift happens, watch the urbanization rate across the developed world shoot up, as the price of suburban/rural living will finally begin to reflect its true societal cost.

Suburban and rural dwellers will still need their own car, but even then it makes more sense to have a PHEV than an ICE. And pure EVs with range extenders (parallel diesel/gas generators) make yet more sense, if the aesthetics and modularity problems can be solved. Yes, these solutions are more costly, but them's the brakes. Nobody has a right to live -- cheaply -- far from shared infrastructure.

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