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How big oil will die

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Re: How big oil will die

#131

Post by function_seven »

leereeves wrote: post #69
function_seven wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument that counters this is that hailed rides will be cheaper than driving what you already have. You don't need to make a new purchase to switch. Even if you have a recent model sitting in the driveway, you may choose to save money by hailing a car rather than driving your own. I don't know if it'll play out like that, but the article is pretty convincing.

Why would a car owned by someone else be cheaper than the same car owned by you? The obvious answer - dividing the cost of the car over more miles - doesn't seem right to me. Driving more miles doesn't generally increase the useful mileage lifespan of cars, it just wears them out more quickly.

The author is comparing electric cars to gasoline powered cars. The idea is that the cost of paying to use someone else’s electric car—even with a markup added—would be less than your current gas car’s cost per mile.

The per-mile cost also includes the capital outlay for the car itself. In other words, it might not make sense for you to pay $40,000 for a new electric car, but it could make sense for three people to split that, and drive each persons per-mile cost down.

All of this is in reference to how fast the switch over could happen, and is why it might be much faster than any of us anticipate.

Re: How big oil will die

#132

Post by kjksf »

leereeves wrote: post #69
function_seven wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument that counters this is that hailed rides will be cheaper than driving what you already have. You don't need to make a new purchase to switch. Even if you have a recent model sitting in the driveway, you may choose to save money by hailing a car rather than driving your own. I don't know if it'll play out like that, but the article is pretty convincing.

Why would a car owned by someone else be cheaper than the same car owned by you? The obvious answer - dividing the cost of the car over more miles - doesn't seem right to me. Driving more miles doesn't generally increase the useful mileage lifespan of cars, it just wears them out more quickly.

Even in the short term, an owner of a large (say 10k+) fleet of cars has a lot of opportunities to drive down cost per car that is not available to an average costumer:

- a guaranteed purchase of 10k cars will get a significant discount over retail price

- not paying dealer overhead

- buying gas (or electricity) in bulk will be cheaper than retail price

- in-house repairs and maintenance will be cheaper

- a lot of people buy on credit, which is expensive. A fleet operator will be able to get cheaper funding (e.g. free by doing an IPO) and eventually fund purchases fully from profit

- an average customer is influenced by marketing and therefore over-pays for non-essential items. A fleet buyer will be ruthless about maintaining best-bang-for-the-buck ratio.

In the longer term fleet operator will transition fully to electric, build its own electricity generation capacity (especially in sunny states like texas or ca, where solar is really cheap), use data from past repairs to drive up reliability and durability of the cars etc.

Re: How big oil will die

#133

Post by prawn »

mikestew wrote: post #113
saagarjha wrote: post #4

I can see this playing out, but not as quickly as the author suggests. Cameras and cellphones last a couple years at the most, and are much easier to replace, than a car is. Sure, everyone wants a self driving car, but not everyone can switch just like that.

Here’s the thing about the camera argument: if the new-fangled camera doesn’t work out, you’re out a few hundred bucks. How risk averse are you going to be when $30K is on the line?

The $30k will have already been spent though, right? When the ride-calling service is extremely economical, it will be a sub-$10 decision. You'll be thinking "I can take this Uber for $4, or I have to drive my car and pay for parking/valet, get gas on the way."

Where I live, registration and insurance for each car is $1,500+/year.

First, people won't need their second or third car. We use ours 2-3 days a week at most. It's barely worth the registration and insurance now.

People growing up purely with on-call cars may never buy their own - that's an entire generation coming through thinking like that. Once we're out of the commuting workforce, we might ditch our primary cars and instead get everything delivered and use on-call cars for social engagements.

I think those first stages of dropping the second car will start to happen in the next few years.

Re: How big oil will die

#134

Post by [deleted] »

sverige wrote: post #54
DaiPlusPlus wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Battery production, like any production, has an environmental impact - but the motivation for battery-electric vehicles is to eliminate local environmental impact (e.g. urban centres). If all of the pollution happens at a single source then it's easier to contain, reduce, and eventually eliminate. 2. Diesel fuels are still very dirty - and the reliability of petrol engines is not a big-enough problem to justify sw…

You skipped the part about massive government subsidies.

[deleted]

Re: How big oil will die

#135

Post by mikestew »

prawn wrote: post #133
mikestew wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here’s the thing about the camera argument: if the new-fangled camera doesn’t work out, you’re out a few hundred bucks. How risk averse are you going to be when $30K is on the line?

The $30k will have already been spent though, right? When the ride-calling service is extremely economical, it will be a sub-$10 decision. You'll be thinking "I can take this Uber for $4, or I have to drive my car and pay for parking/valet, get gas on the way." Where I live, registration and insurance for each car is $1,500+/year. First, people won't need their second or third car. We use ours 2-3 days a week at most…

I don’t know that Uber will take down the to grocery store for $4, let alone get me anywhere useful like work. Probably someday, but not today, not in the eight years the author predicts, and probably not within my lifetime (middle-aged oldster here). I think the author’s mistake was applying iPhone timelines to cars. What the article says will happen, of that I am confident. But I think the author is off by an order of magnitude in many cases (like oil companies going out of business).

Re: How big oil will die

#137

Post by litany »

billrobertson42 wrote: post #112
leereeves wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people will never call a self driving car to the trailhead of a 14'er. As a long distance backpacker I'd love to be able to get a ride to and from the trail at a reasonable price. Of course, we'd also need better cell coverage.

If you had a self-driving car, you could let it take you to the beginning of the hike, and then let it drive itself to the end of the hike where you could take it home.

As an outdoorsman this is exactly what I am excited about with self driving cars. It has the possibility of making going even deeper into the wilderness more practical. A self driving car can take you to the trail head, go charge, and then go wait for you. With 300 miles of range you can go most anywhere.

Re: How big oil will die

#138

Post by gnaritas »

badminton1 wrote: post #49
gnaritas wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dollar doesn't get its value from oil, it gets its value from being the sole currency accepted for your tax bill, i.e. its value derives from its tax base. That is why fiat works, it's what "by fiat" means, and why commodity backing is not necessary. The dollar has been a far better currency since gold backing was removed. Gold was and is a terrible currency.

It is more complicated than that. There's the relative value among different currencies (exchange rates).

You're on HN, please don't assume only you understand the complexities of the world. Everything is more complicated than one simple thing, but you don't get to level that critique after claiming the value comes from oil. We're obviously talking about primary driver of value and for every fiat currency its primary value is in its tax base, not in any commodity backing.

The values between currencies fluctuate short term because capital moves around, but that doesn't drive the value of a currency, it merely alters it a very tiny amount. Fundamental forces, i.e. government policies, control exchange rates long term as any currency trader will tell you however this isn't relevant to the topic as bringing up exchange rates is simply a deflection to avoid admitting or accepting that oil isn't why the dollar has value which was the point you made that is being refuted.

Re: How big oil will die

#139

Post by jonahrd »

chrissnell wrote: post #25

This article makes a number of flawed assumptions: - It neglects the environmental impact of battery production. - Diesel motors can be significantly less expensive to maintain and operate, even more so as the reliability of emissions-reducing technology is improved. - Battery charging is nowhere near as fast or convenient as a gas station. - Electricity must come from somewhere. Few places have steady wind and none…

1 This article isn't talking about the environmental impact of electric cars, its talking about the collapse of the oil industry. 4 Yet again, electricity is never made from oil. The fact that it takes effort to generate electricity doesn't take away from the articles main point that the oil industry will collapse.

Re: How big oil will die

#140

Post by jholman »

adenadel wrote: post #109
xexers wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vast majority of people are living and travelling within cities. You're talking about a small problem that's getting smaller every year. See this chart: http://www.writework.com/uploads/12/122436/english-chart-ill...

I wouldn't call the lifestyle of 20% of the planet a "small problem". Also, just because someone lives in a city (which can be as small as 2500 people and isolated[0]) doesn't mean that they never leave it. 0. https://www.citylab.com/equity/2012/03/us-urban-population-w...

20% of the planet? How do you figure?
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