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How big oil will die

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Re: How big oil will die

#101

Post by schiffern »

leereeves wrote: post #69
function_seven wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument that counters this is that hailed rides will be cheaper than driving what you already have. You don't need to make a new purchase to switch. Even if you have a recent model sitting in the driveway, you may choose to save money by hailing a car rather than driving your own. I don't know if it'll play out like that, but the article is pretty convincing.

Why would a car owned by someone else be cheaper than the same car owned by you? The obvious answer - dividing the cost of the car over more miles - doesn't seem right to me. Driving more miles doesn't generally increase the useful mileage lifespan of cars, it just wears them out more quickly.

The first half of the article addresses this specifically. BEVs last longer.

There's plenty of other things to break of course, but when the business model includes selling mobility the incentives are aligned toward durability and reliability (versus selling cars, which incentivizes planned obsolescence). It's worth putting in that extra 5% to make the car last twice as long.

Re: How big oil will die

#102

Post by gregable »

leereeves wrote: post #59
pilom wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree wholeheartedly with you and my next vehicle will be a plug in hybrid. That said, that isn't what the author is saying. He's saying that all private cars will go away because it will be so much cheaper to just call a self driving electric and I don't see it happening because people will never call a self driving car to the trailhead of a 14'er. It is just so much more convenient to have your own (PHEV).

> people will never call a self driving car to the trailhead of a 14'er. As a long distance backpacker I'd love to be able to get a ride to and from the trail at a reasonable price. Of course, we'd also need better cell coverage.

The cell coverage isn't even required. If there is no driver waiting for me, I could affordably schedule the car in advance to wait at the trailhead until I arrive: all day if need be. It'd be no more expensive than having rented the car for the day.

Re: How big oil will die

#103

Post by notyourday »

Lightbody wrote: post #56
pilom wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That the whole "no one will own a car because self driving ones will be so much more cheaper" is hogwash.

Replace "no one" with "most people". Do you still say hogwash? He laid out a really solid article. You said "hogwash". If you want to change minds you gotta expand a bit more :)

You should ask your wife/girlfriend/daughter if she is planning on getting into a self-driving car with no ability to control it.

Re: How big oil will die

#104

Post by danans »

pilom wrote: post #28

Every time I see someone make the argument that "all cars will be electric by 20XX" I feel like they are incredibly sheltered from rural life. The US is HUGE! Sure the majority of commuting could be replaced by electric cars but I've seen no evidence of them being able to replace ICEs for the "I want to go skiing/kayaking/hiking (pick an activity where your car sits on the side of the road all day) 2 hours away and r…

> Sure ski resorts and malls and park and rides might put in 1000s of chargers in their parking lots eventually, but it certainly won't happen by 2023

We drove a plugin hybrid to go skiing last winter.

Once we got to the hotel we were surprised to find a level 2 charger. We plugged in and 30 percent of our miles while up there were pure electric.

If anything, given that ski resorts tend to serve higher income clientele, they are likely to be ahead of the curve with charging stations, especially if they can charge $ for it.

Re: How big oil will die

#105

Post by sooheon »

briantakita wrote: post #63
maxsilver wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars can have ICE's strapped onto them, and it works really well. The Chevy Volt, for instance, is perfectly designed to handle the situation you described. It gives you 52ish miles of all electric range, so you can commute and grab groceries and do all of your normal driving on pure electricity. And for various road trips, it still gets 40-ish MPG for hundreds of miles without any electricity needed. It als…

> It also needs zero fancy charging infrastructure. Have a regular US household power outlet anywhere in your garage or home exterior? Then you have everything you need to charge it up every night. There will be significant additional load on the Electric grid. This will require the electric grid to be overhauled around the country. Couple this with "smart grid" mandates & you have yet another channel for government…

> The big advantage of Gas is you can transport/store the product without the product losing energy.

So gas tankers and carriers run on unicorn farts now? ;)

> Living in Tennessee, it's difficult to ignore the power lines everywhere in otherwise abundant greenery. Electric cars will only add more power lines & infrastructure.

Continue at the current rate of emissions and pollution, and the only greenery left in Tennessee or anywhere else will be brownish algae.

Re: How big oil will die

#107

Post by mobilefriendly »

all_usernames wrote: post #86
pilom wrote: post #28

Every time I see someone make the argument that "all cars will be electric by 20XX" I feel like they are incredibly sheltered from rural life. The US is HUGE! Sure the majority of commuting could be replaced by electric cars but I've seen no evidence of them being able to replace ICEs for the "I want to go skiing/kayaking/hiking (pick an activity where your car sits on the side of the road all day) 2 hours away and r…

> The US is HUGE! India and China beg to differ -- and they will have an even more HUGE impact on big oil in terms of uptake of EVs.

I don't disagree about the future, but today the US has more cars and consumes more oil than China and India combined.

Re: How big oil will die

#108

Post by CodeWriter23 »

saagarjha wrote: post #4

I can see this playing out, but not as quickly as the author suggests. Cameras and cellphones last a couple years at the most, and are much easier to replace, than a car is. Sure, everyone wants a self driving car, but not everyone can switch just like that.

Here's a benchmark for you to consider. In Los Angeles, if your commute is 10 miles or less, the monthly cost of using Lyft for commuting is less expensive than TCO of an inexpensive compact car. That's with current tech.

Re: How big oil will die

#109

Post by adenadel »

xexers wrote: post #66
pilom wrote: post #28

Every time I see someone make the argument that "all cars will be electric by 20XX" I feel like they are incredibly sheltered from rural life. The US is HUGE! Sure the majority of commuting could be replaced by electric cars but I've seen no evidence of them being able to replace ICEs for the "I want to go skiing/kayaking/hiking (pick an activity where your car sits on the side of the road all day) 2 hours away and r…

The vast majority of people are living and travelling within cities. You're talking about a small problem that's getting smaller every year. See this chart: http://www.writework.com/uploads/12/122436/english-chart-ill...

I wouldn't call the lifestyle of 20% of the planet a "small problem". Also, just because someone lives in a city (which can be as small as 2500 people and isolated[0]) doesn't mean that they never leave it.

0. https://www.citylab.com/equity/2012/03/us-urban-population-w...

Re: How big oil will die

#110

Post by mark-r »

khn1 wrote: post #67

There is a major blind spot that the author fails to address: All vehicles (ICE or EV) have a heavy dependence on petroleum products such as plastics, lubricants, and synthetic rubber. While I believe that EV's are the future, I do not think their success implies the fall of Big Oil.

The author acknowledges this, and says oil usage will decline but not go away. Oil is used for a lot more than gasoline. But the contraction of the market will put a lot of companies in a world of hurt.
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