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How big oil will die

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Re: How big oil will die

#51

Post by pilom »

whipoodle wrote: post #40
pilom wrote: post #28

Every time I see someone make the argument that "all cars will be electric by 20XX" I feel like they are incredibly sheltered from rural life. The US is HUGE! Sure the majority of commuting could be replaced by electric cars but I've seen no evidence of them being able to replace ICEs for the "I want to go skiing/kayaking/hiking (pick an activity where your car sits on the side of the road all day) 2 hours away and r…

What do you think of the actual points raised by the author, though?

That the whole "no one will own a car because self driving ones will be so much more cheaper" is hogwash.

Re: How big oil will die

#52

Post by hyperbovine »

alliao wrote: post #46

And this is how car manufacturers going to make up the revenue loss of the new much more reliable electric drive train. AI + Autonomous driving. Both of these requires sensors, and silicon. Both hates abuse from vibration and heat/cold cycle, in short, they will fail. So instead of paying for things that would break in the old car, why not pay for things that only exists in the new car. It's not hard...

Cars have been shipping with sensors and computers since the 80s. When was the last time you heard of somebody's ECU failing? What's that, you've never heard of an ECU before? :-)

Re: How big oil will die

#53

Post by vvanders »

chrissnell wrote: post #25

This article makes a number of flawed assumptions: - It neglects the environmental impact of battery production. - Diesel motors can be significantly less expensive to maintain and operate, even more so as the reliability of emissions-reducing technology is improved. - Battery charging is nowhere near as fast or convenient as a gas station. - Electricity must come from somewhere. Few places have steady wind and none…

> Diesel motors can be significantly less expensive to maintain and operate, even more so as the reliability of emissions-reducing technology is improved.

Source? As someone who owns two diesels(1.1L 2cyl and 3.0L 6cyl) and an EV the oil changes alone make your argument invalid.

You know what my highest per-mile operating cost is(including electricity)? Tires.

Look, I love the simplicity of the diesel as much as anyone else but EVs have a very strong position on operation costs.

Re: How big oil will die

#54

Post by sverige »

DaiPlusPlus wrote: post #44
chrissnell wrote: post #25

This article makes a number of flawed assumptions: - It neglects the environmental impact of battery production. - Diesel motors can be significantly less expensive to maintain and operate, even more so as the reliability of emissions-reducing technology is improved. - Battery charging is nowhere near as fast or convenient as a gas station. - Electricity must come from somewhere. Few places have steady wind and none…

1. Battery production, like any production, has an environmental impact - but the motivation for battery-electric vehicles is to eliminate local environmental impact (e.g. urban centres). If all of the pollution happens at a single source then it's easier to contain, reduce, and eventually eliminate. 2. Diesel fuels are still very dirty - and the reliability of petrol engines is not a big-enough problem to justify sw…

You skipped the part about massive government subsidies.

Re: How big oil will die

#55

Post by Gibbon1 »

vvanders wrote: post #37
pilom wrote: post #28

Every time I see someone make the argument that "all cars will be electric by 20XX" I feel like they are incredibly sheltered from rural life. The US is HUGE! Sure the majority of commuting could be replaced by electric cars but I've seen no evidence of them being able to replace ICEs for the "I want to go skiing/kayaking/hiking (pick an activity where your car sits on the side of the road all day) 2 hours away and r…

As someone who lives in a very rural area away from the metro with an EV I say: so what? Unless you're going 300mi+ in a day(which is 6+ hours of driving) you're fine. Even if you are large parts of electric charging infrastructure is coming online at a rapid pace. Take for instance the Olympic Peninsula. Used to be really hard to get to via EV. There's now a Supercharger in Sequim and Aberdeen with another planned f…

I have a friend who lives really in the middle of nowhere. It's 70 miles to the nearest town with a big box store. 100 miles to Reno. He said if he had an electric car with 150 miles range it would totally serve his purposes. The local gas station has an issue. They have to charge higher prices. So most residents buy their gas on their weekly shopping trip to Fernley/Reno. There is the potential if that station closes, then electric cars become vastly more attractive.

Re: How big oil will die

#56

Post by Lightbody »

pilom wrote: post #51
whipoodle wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think of the actual points raised by the author, though?

That the whole "no one will own a car because self driving ones will be so much more cheaper" is hogwash.

Replace "no one" with "most people". Do you still say hogwash?

He laid out a really solid article. You said "hogwash".

If you want to change minds you gotta expand a bit more :)

Re: How big oil will die

#58

Post by Analemma_ »

pilom wrote: post #47
maxsilver wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars can have ICE's strapped onto them, and it works really well. The Chevy Volt, for instance, is perfectly designed to handle the situation you described. It gives you 52ish miles of all electric range, so you can commute and grab groceries and do all of your normal driving on pure electricity. And for various road trips, it still gets 40-ish MPG for hundreds of miles without any electricity needed. It als…

I agree wholeheartedly with you and my next vehicle will be a plug in hybrid. That said, that isn't what the author is saying. He's saying that all private cars will go away because it will be so much cheaper to just call a self driving electric and I don't see it happening because people will never call a self driving car to the trailhead of a 14'er. It is just so much more convenient to have your own (PHEV).

> I don't see it happening because people will never call a self driving car to the trailhead of a 14'er. It is just so much more convenient to have your own (PHEV).

Self-driving cars can co-exist with short-term rentals. I live in Seattle and recently sold my car because ReachNow is good enough: it does short-term rentals by the mile, but when I go hiking I can do half/full-day rentals, and it still ends up being a lot cheaper than owning a car. And this is before self-driving and the cost savings of EV enter the equation.

Re: How big oil will die

#59

Post by leereeves »

pilom wrote: post #47
maxsilver wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars can have ICE's strapped onto them, and it works really well. The Chevy Volt, for instance, is perfectly designed to handle the situation you described. It gives you 52ish miles of all electric range, so you can commute and grab groceries and do all of your normal driving on pure electricity. And for various road trips, it still gets 40-ish MPG for hundreds of miles without any electricity needed. It als…

I agree wholeheartedly with you and my next vehicle will be a plug in hybrid. That said, that isn't what the author is saying. He's saying that all private cars will go away because it will be so much cheaper to just call a self driving electric and I don't see it happening because people will never call a self driving car to the trailhead of a 14'er. It is just so much more convenient to have your own (PHEV).

> people will never call a self driving car to the trailhead of a 14'er.

As a long distance backpacker I'd love to be able to get a ride to and from the trail at a reasonable price.

Of course, we'd also need better cell coverage.

Re: How big oil will die

#60

Post by pilom »

jaggederest wrote: post #36
pilom wrote: post #28

Every time I see someone make the argument that "all cars will be electric by 20XX" I feel like they are incredibly sheltered from rural life. The US is HUGE! Sure the majority of commuting could be replaced by electric cars but I've seen no evidence of them being able to replace ICEs for the "I want to go skiing/kayaking/hiking (pick an activity where your car sits on the side of the road all day) 2 hours away and r…

Two hours of driving is half a Tesla's capacity, so that scenario is already solved. It's not going to get any less solved over time. People will own cars individually for the same reason that people own horses now - they enable a specific kind of activity, or a native appreciation for the object in itself. Certainly motorsport is not going to die any time soon. What percentage of automobiles are used for touring and…

A Tesla model 3 has a listed range of 220 miles and it declines in winter and with hills. Therefore I doubt one could actually go from downtown Denver to Vail (~95 miles) for a day of skiing and back in a day without charging at the resort. It certainly couldn't make it from Denver to Salida, CO (~140 miles) for a day of white water rafting without charging during the day. Sure businesses could install chargers in their parking lots but we have a LONG way to go for that and that doesn't help someone going to climb the tallest mountain in Colorado (115 miles) who will park at the trailhead. There are some answers here but personal vehicle ownership isn't going away for large portions of America any time soon.
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