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How big oil will die

shift.newco.co

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Re: How big oil will die

#21

Post by badminton1 »

FLUX-YOU wrote: post #17
badminton1 wrote: post #6

Not many people know the relationship between oil and the US dollar. The golden age of the US dollar was the Bretton Woods system, where every currency was backed in dollars and dollars were backed in gold. There was however no obligation for the Federal Reserve to accept audits of any kind to validate there was enough gold. Therefore the US could print money at will (and it did), until countries such as France start…

>the US will need to find another way to sustain its currency The threat of the US economy collapsing is plenty enough reason to strike new deals to sustain its currency.

Since economies are deeply interconnected it is clear that it is in nobody's interest to allow the US economy to collapse.

The problem of bimetallism (silver/gold) or just gold, is that they are scarce and not suitable to produce enough circulating currency for everyone, so a replacement seemed fair.

But fossil fuels are an environmental liability. Maybe the future is in some crypto-like thing.

Re: How big oil will die

#22

Post by Animats »

That's from May 2017.

It costs less to make an IC engine than to make an electric drivetrain. Replacement cost for a Tesla drivetrain is about $6000 - $15000. Replacement for an volume-product automotive engine is about $2,250 to $4,000. Detroit put a lot of effort over the years into making engine manufacture cheap.

Re: How big oil will die

#23

Post by Analemma_ »

diafygi wrote: post #11
jswizzy wrote: post #5

You think in 2025 we will be talking about children mining by hand in the Congo in horrible conditions to provide all those lithium batteries for that future? There is a price for everything.

Fun fact. Afghanistan has huge lithium resources. https://nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html

Oh, well never mind then: Afghanistan has much better labor protections than the Congo /s

Re: How big oil will die

#24

Post by mhmiles »

Animats wrote: post #22

That's from May 2017. It costs less to make an IC engine than to make an electric drivetrain. Replacement cost for a Tesla drivetrain is about $6000 - $15000. Replacement for an volume-product automotive engine is about $2,250 to $4,000. Detroit put a lot of effort over the years into making engine manufacture cheap.

Pretty sure you’re not finding a new engine for a BMW 5 series for $4000 and that’s a cheaper car than Tesla S/X

Re: How big oil will die

#25

Post by chrissnell »

This article makes a number of flawed assumptions:

    - It neglects the environmental impact of battery production.
    - Diesel motors can be significantly less expensive to maintain and operate, even more so as the reliability of
      emissions-reducing technology is improved.
    - Battery charging is nowhere near as fast or convenient as a gas station.
    - Electricity must come from somewhere.  Few places have steady wind and none have 24-hour solar energy.
The world will switch to electric vehicles when they offer sufficient cost-savings, convenience, and appeal. Until we solve all of those things (and not with massive government subsidies), they will continue to play second-fiddle to gas- and diesel-powered vehicles.

Re: How big oil will die

#26

Post by gnaritas »

badminton1 wrote: post #6

Not many people know the relationship between oil and the US dollar. The golden age of the US dollar was the Bretton Woods system, where every currency was backed in dollars and dollars were backed in gold. There was however no obligation for the Federal Reserve to accept audits of any kind to validate there was enough gold. Therefore the US could print money at will (and it did), until countries such as France start…

The dollar doesn't get its value from oil, it gets its value from being the sole currency accepted for your tax bill, i.e. its value derives from its tax base. That is why fiat works, it's what "by fiat" means, and why commodity backing is not necessary. The dollar has been a far better currency since gold backing was removed. Gold was and is a terrible currency.

Re: How big oil will die

#27

Post by andrewtbham »

diafygi wrote: post #11
jswizzy wrote: post #5

You think in 2025 we will be talking about children mining by hand in the Congo in horrible conditions to provide all those lithium batteries for that future? There is a price for everything.

Fun fact. Afghanistan has huge lithium resources. https://nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html

I assume he is referring to cobalt, not lithium.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/business/batteries/c...

Re: How big oil will die

#28

Post by pilom »

Every time I see someone make the argument that "all cars will be electric by 20XX" I feel like they are incredibly sheltered from rural life. The US is HUGE! Sure the majority of commuting could be replaced by electric cars but I've seen no evidence of them being able to replace ICEs for the "I want to go skiing/kayaking/hiking (pick an activity where your car sits on the side of the road all day) 2 hours away and return on the same day" situation. There are so many changes to infrastructure that need to be made to get there. Sure ski resorts and malls and park and rides might put in 1000s of chargers in their parking lots eventually, but it certainly won't happen by 2023 or whatever this article predicts. Sure the cars might exist, but the charging infrastructure won't by then.

Re: How big oil will die

#29

Post by pm24601 »

badminton1 wrote: post #6

Not many people know the relationship between oil and the US dollar. The golden age of the US dollar was the Bretton Woods system, where every currency was backed in dollars and dollars were backed in gold. There was however no obligation for the Federal Reserve to accept audits of any kind to validate there was enough gold. Therefore the US could print money at will (and it did), until countries such as France start…

You are ignoring history. The US is the one (of 2) major countries to:

* NOT have been invaded/conquered

* NOT had major currency hyperinflation/devaluation

* long lasting (centuries at this point)

* currency reissue/replacement

The other arguable is the UK and the pound.

Re: How big oil will die

#30

Post by throwaway91111 »

function_seven wrote: post #8
saagarjha wrote: post #4

I can see this playing out, but not as quickly as the author suggests. Cameras and cellphones last a couple years at the most, and are much easier to replace, than a car is. Sure, everyone wants a self driving car, but not everyone can switch just like that.

The argument that counters this is that hailed rides will be cheaper than driving what you already have. You don't need to make a new purchase to switch. Even if you have a recent model sitting in the driveway, you may choose to save money by hailing a car rather than driving your own. I don't know if it'll play out like that, but the article is pretty convincing.

Hailed riding only works locally, and there's already public transit cheaper than ride hailing; if you leave your metro area at all i'd bet this assumption that ride hailing is cheaper quickly falls off.

Hell, many US cities don't even have uber yet.

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