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Bitcoin Makes Even Smart People Feel Dumb

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Re: Bitcoin Makes Even Smart People Feel Dumb

#61

Post by phkahler »

thephyber wrote: post #52
puranjay wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is what makes Bitcoin's democratic credentials so ridiculous. "It will free us from fiat money!" No it won't. It's just a transfer of wealth from educated elite to other educated elite. 99% of the world's population can't understand it. 99.5% can't mine it. It's so damn elitist that it's not even funny.

> 99.5% can't mine it. Not relevant. Mining is no longer profitable for any new entrants without some incredible innovation in computing power or electricity costs. Even the miners are unlikely to make money from mining only from holding their mining gains as investments. > 99% of the world's population can't understand it. That's underselling the human population. I would posit 10-20% are probably mentally incapable…

>> Even the miners are unlikely to make money from mining only from holding their mining gains as investments.

And that's why I've been calling it a Ponzi scheme lately. Once mining become unprofitable, or even impossible (asymptotically) people will stop mining, but the blockchain only works if people keep mining. At some point it's got to fail doesn't it?

Re: Bitcoin Makes Even Smart People Feel Dumb

#62

Post by UncleMeat »

biggerbistro wrote: post #47
puranjay wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is what makes Bitcoin's democratic credentials so ridiculous. "It will free us from fiat money!" No it won't. It's just a transfer of wealth from educated elite to other educated elite. 99% of the world's population can't understand it. 99.5% can't mine it. It's so damn elitist that it's not even funny.

How is this elitist? Do most people understand the current financial system in any meaningful way? Do most people understand how their computers work? How their air conditioner works? How about the pressure dynamics that make their toilets flush? Saying everyone can't mine it is inaccurate, everyone can mine it even with a smartphone. Is it profitable? No, but neither is mining iron ore with a shovel. Those with the…

Because our financial system isn't portrayed as a technology that will bring the power to the people and free us from the shackles of elite organizations. Bitcoin is presented this way.

Re: Bitcoin Makes Even Smart People Feel Dumb

#63

Post by tromp »

phkahler wrote: post #61
thephyber wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 99.5% can't mine it. Not relevant. Mining is no longer profitable for any new entrants without some incredible innovation in computing power or electricity costs. Even the miners are unlikely to make money from mining only from holding their mining gains as investments. > 99% of the world's population can't understand it. That's underselling the human population. I would posit 10-20% are probably mentally incapable…

>> Even the miners are unlikely to make money from mining only from holding their mining gains as investments. And that's why I've been calling it a Ponzi scheme lately. Once mining become unprofitable, or even impossible (asymptotically) people will stop mining, but the blockchain only works if people keep mining. At some point it's got to fail doesn't it?

> Once mining become unprofitable, or even impossible (asymptotically) people will stop mining

It's self-correcting; fewer miners means higher profitability for remaining miners...

Re: Bitcoin Makes Even Smart People Feel Dumb

#64

Post by sebringj »

I would say understanding HTML is a bit harder than being able to use a smart phone for bitcoin transactions. Not very many know how to program network protocols for the internet and not very many know how to program blockchain networks either. The blind trust in Central Banks is the real mystery.

Re: Bitcoin Makes Even Smart People Feel Dumb

#65

Post by charlesdm »

thephyber wrote: post #52
puranjay wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is what makes Bitcoin's democratic credentials so ridiculous. "It will free us from fiat money!" No it won't. It's just a transfer of wealth from educated elite to other educated elite. 99% of the world's population can't understand it. 99.5% can't mine it. It's so damn elitist that it's not even funny.

> 99.5% can't mine it. Not relevant. Mining is no longer profitable for any new entrants without some incredible innovation in computing power or electricity costs. Even the miners are unlikely to make money from mining only from holding their mining gains as investments. > 99% of the world's population can't understand it. That's underselling the human population. I would posit 10-20% are probably mentally incapable…

I understand how Bitcoin works and I understand how the technology itself is useful and valuable + has some interesting use cases.

However, with the exception of a few use cases e.g. countries with high and/or hyperinflation, what I don't understand is why the currency Bitcoin has any value at all. Frankly, if anything, it still looks more like a massive bubble to me.

Unless you already own Bitcoin, why would I ever consider paying for something through Bitcoin? Why would I ever transfer EUR or USD into Bitcoin?

Then again, maybe I'm missing something here, because gold also does not hold the value it generally trades at. I don't see how it makes sense to hold either gold or Bitcoin.

Re: Bitcoin Makes Even Smart People Feel Dumb

#66

Post by mdurbar »

puranjay wrote: post #30
tuddman wrote: post #18

Author is projecting. Replaced "me" with "people" in writing this. Considered himself smart; tried to wrap head around Bitcoin, but lacks math/cs/finance background, and or curiosity to dig below surface level hype or read blockchain-y things beyond what's written by other lazy journalists ...? (now I'm projecting). Doesn't 'get it'. Plenty of people understand Bitcoin. Go read the whitepaper.

Which is what makes Bitcoin's democratic credentials so ridiculous. "It will free us from fiat money!" No it won't. It's just a transfer of wealth from educated elite to other educated elite. 99% of the world's population can't understand it. 99.5% can't mine it. It's so damn elitist that it's not even funny.

I disagree with that statement.

I have seen the excitement for Bitcoin come about here in Pakistan, mainly from the lower class, to the middle class, I know the founders of one of the Bitcoin exchanges in Pakistan(Urdubit), and the number of people that come from the rural areas to trade or buy bitcoins, would surprise you.

Yes, most people won't read the whitepaper, and many more will read it and won't understand it, but you don't need to understand the inner workings of it fully to take advantage of it.

Yes, right now, creating a paper wallet, or storing your coins in cold storage can be a little bit difficult for most people, and till these things are simplified enough, my mum won't be using it to pay for groceries at the supermarket. But that's with any technology!

Re: Bitcoin Makes Even Smart People Feel Dumb

#67

Post by logfromblammo »

wmf wrote: post #34
conistonwater wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But isn't valuing a penny stock with no business activity really easy?

Oh BTW there are people manipulating this stock behind the scenes. Is it still easy to predict the price?

Predicting the price is only an intermediate step to answering the question "How much should I invest in this stock?" In the case of the penny stock with no business activity, you can usually just skip the valuation step and go straight to "invest nothing".

There are exceptions, of course, but all of them involve you having some information not generally available to the public.

Re: Bitcoin Makes Even Smart People Feel Dumb

#68

Post by jstanley »

charlesdm wrote: post #65
thephyber wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 99.5% can't mine it. Not relevant. Mining is no longer profitable for any new entrants without some incredible innovation in computing power or electricity costs. Even the miners are unlikely to make money from mining only from holding their mining gains as investments. > 99% of the world's population can't understand it. That's underselling the human population. I would posit 10-20% are probably mentally incapable…

I understand how Bitcoin works and I understand how the technology itself is useful and valuable + has some interesting use cases. However, with the exception of a few use cases e.g. countries with high and/or hyperinflation, what I don't understand is why the currency Bitcoin has any value at all. Frankly, if anything, it still looks more like a massive bubble to me. Unless you already own Bitcoin, why would I ever…

If you don't already own USD, why would you ever consider paying for something in USD?

Because the person you're trying to pay only wants USD. And eventually, if you start getting paid in USD, it becomes only natural to pay others in USD.

Re: Bitcoin Makes Even Smart People Feel Dumb

#69

Post by cs702 »

tuddman wrote: post #18

Author is projecting. Replaced "me" with "people" in writing this. Considered himself smart; tried to wrap head around Bitcoin, but lacks math/cs/finance background, and or curiosity to dig below surface level hype or read blockchain-y things beyond what's written by other lazy journalists ...? (now I'm projecting). Doesn't 'get it'. Plenty of people understand Bitcoin. Go read the whitepaper.

> Author is projecting. Replaced "me" with "people" in writing this. Considered himself smart; tried to wrap head around Bitcoin, but lacks math/cs/finance background, and or curiosity to dig below surface level hype... Doesn't 'get it'.

Yes, exactly my thoughts.

It's IMPOSSIBLE to understand HOW and WHY Bitcoin works without a baseline understanding of public-key cryptography, cryptographic hashing functions, key ideas of computational complexity, and algorithmic processes in distributed systems, particularly peer-to-peer networks.

In other words, to understand how and why Bitcoin works, one must first understand the key concepts underpinning Satoshi Nakamoto's groundbreaking paper: https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

The general public, lacking the necessary education and knowledge to understand these things, has no choice but to use Bitcoin based on faith and experience.

Note that the general public doesn't understand government-issued money either, but they happily use it every day based on faith and experience. The same thing is happening with Bitcoin.

Re: Bitcoin Makes Even Smart People Feel Dumb

#70

Post by pbhjpbhj »

oxide wrote: post #29
SadWebDeveloper wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Until transaction fees start to rise due those people pushing their own agenda on the network.

Cost me a couple dollars last night to send 70 dollars in btc to a friend. Last month it was 3 dollars and change. I'm thankful it was slightly more reasonable. I might use an alt coin for awhile to save on fees.

That seems very expensive, I was expecting it to be practically free as I'd heard it was transforming the money-sending space??

How much does Paypal charge to send $70 to a friend, isn't it free?

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