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Cruise is running an autonomous ride hailing service for employees in SF

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Re: Cruise is running an autonomous ride hailing service for employees in SF

#101
post #54
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Back seat behind the driver is statistically the safest. In case of a collision a driver will instinctively try to save himself and therefore crash with the passenger side. Being behind the driver therefore puts you at less risk

In an autonomous ride would this still hold true?

I can't tell if thats a joke or if you're serious :)

Re: Cruise is running an autonomous ride hailing service for employees in SF

#102
post #64
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the end of 2016 all companies testing autonomous vehicles in California filed their disengagement reports. Waymo reported 1 unplanned disengagement every 5000 miles, and GM reported 1 every 180. Nobody else was even in the running. These metrics are crude, but it's currently the only benchmarking system we've got, and we'll see in December where Cruise is really at when they report their 2017 numbers. Cruise does…

Waymo (Google) is not that far from level IV. Average U.S. driver has one accident roughly every 165,000 miles and disengagements is not 1:1 with crashing. I suspect drunk drivers would probably be safer handing over control which could make a huge difference. Most interesting is the Disengagements by location. (page 9) https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/946b3502-c959-4e3b... Interstate 0 Freeway 0 Highway 12…

Sounds like you're assuming level 4 merely means parity or better with human error. Lots of problems with that. For instance if it's Google's negligent bug that kills the family of 4 instead of a driver, Google gets sued. Google has much deeper pockets than the driver who would typically declare bankruptcy, effectively capping the damages. No real cap for Google, every time. So that explodes the cost of autonomous vehicles. And then there's the matter of potential criminal liability in the case of gross negligence. So there's going to be a much higher bar for transitioning to level 4.

Also, while there may be fewer of some types of accidents, there will be lawsuits for a potentially very large set of other types that never used to get litigated. For example today when a driver causes their own accident, nobody gets sued.

Re: Cruise is running an autonomous ride hailing service for employees in SF

#103

Hi HN, engineer at Cruise here. I just wanted to point out that most people are surprised when I tell them we're hiring a ton of backend/full stack/android engineering positions (mostly go/node/react), and you don't need prior robotics or machine learning experience to apply (although we like those too). So, if you're interested in working on AVs or the systems that support them, please take a look at our careers pag…

Do you know if Cruise will be looking for interns next Summer? It's a hugely interesting field to me and I'd love to get my feet wet prior to graduating.

Re: Cruise is running an autonomous ride hailing service for employees in SF

#104
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Couldn't they have something like a real Human remote driver. That can intervene, but also can oversee multiple cars.

Would need incredibly low latency for that to be safe, I think. FPS games use a pile of tricks to send minimal data over the network which wouldn't be available to an autonomous car: we don't have access to the game engine, after all...

You wouldn't automatically need low latency. In a situation like the above one the car could pull over and wait for the control center to tell it whether the drive on through the water or not.

Not quite the same problem but the Starship delivery vehicles work a bit like that - remote link to a control center. http://uk.businessinsider.com/doordash-delivery-robots-stars...

Re: Cruise is running an autonomous ride hailing service for employees in SF

#105

my unpopular personal opinion (strictly as a casual observer): self-driving will only be commercially viable as an augmented safety technology in single-owner vehicles (collision avoidance, lane keeping etc.) for ~20 years before we come close to reaching full-autonomy. What we have currently; maybe four or five 9s of reliability in perfect conditions is not nearly good enough for autonomous car sharing. If the car b…

Human drivers are pretty terrible. I'd imagine if it breaks down, then the same breakdown cover everyone has at the moment will kick in.

- autonomous vehicle could be transporting someone not qualified to drive.

- hard to draft paying & passive customers in to accident mitigation or resolution role.

Re: Cruise is running an autonomous ride hailing service for employees in SF

#106
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Couldn't they have something like a real Human remote driver. That can intervene, but also can oversee multiple cars.

Would need incredibly low latency for that to be safe, I think. FPS games use a pile of tricks to send minimal data over the network which wouldn't be available to an autonomous car: we don't have access to the game engine, after all...

Onlive allowed gaming over a Videostream with minimal delay. ffmpeg[1] works too.

[1] http://fomori.org/blog/?p=1213

Re: Cruise is running an autonomous ride hailing service for employees in SF

#107
post #50
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was driving home a few months ago in the rain on Division in SF. Cars were stopped, and I immediately couldn't figure out why. When I passed the stopped vehicles I got my answer: there was seemingly a wall of water coming down from the freeway overhead and an autonomous car was stopped as it apparently didn't know how to handle the situation.

Couldn't they have something like a real Human remote driver. That can intervene, but also can oversee multiple cars.

At least one company is doing exactly that with trucks, where the last mile is remotely controlled. This was on HN a number of months ago:

http://fortune.com/2017/02/28/starsky-self-driving-truck-sta...

Re: Cruise is running an autonomous ride hailing service for employees in SF

#108
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo is doing this with real, public customers (albeit hand-selected ones) in Phoenix[0]. Uber has been doing this for months with customers in Pittsburgh[1]. This is certainly a sign that Cruise is making good progress, but I wouldn't say it means they've leapfrogged the competition by any means. [0] https://waymo.com/apply/ [1] https://www.uber.com/blog/pittsburgh/pittsburgh-self-driving...

The Uber car's are absolutely everywhere in Pittsburgh. See probably an average of two one way on my daily commute.

And Pittsburgh is a far more challenging driving environment than either San Francisco or Phoenix, with far more diversity of weather and a lot messier infrastructure due to terrain and freeze-thaw cycles and reduced maintenance after population decline— think 20% grade on cobbles after a snowstorm.

e.g. https://www.google.com/maps/@40.4763879,-80.0106331,3a,75y,2...

Re: Cruise is running an autonomous ride hailing service for employees in SF

#109

This makes me so excited. I can't wait until the interiors of cars can change completely due to the safety brought by self driving cars. If all cars were self driving and communicated with each other, the risk of crash would be almost nonexistent (obviously there would still be wildlife and other issues). Given a near 0% chance of crash however, we could remove many of the annoying 'features' of a current car, like s…

A public 'bed car' sounds gross.

Not necessarily any grosser than a hotel.

Re: Cruise is running an autonomous ride hailing service for employees in SF

#110
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo (Google) is not that far from level IV. Average U.S. driver has one accident roughly every 165,000 miles and disengagements is not 1:1 with crashing. I suspect drunk drivers would probably be safer handing over control which could make a huge difference. Most interesting is the Disengagements by location. (page 9) https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/946b3502-c959-4e3b... Interstate 0 Freeway 0 Highway 12…

Sounds like you're assuming level 4 merely means parity or better with human error. Lots of problems with that. For instance if it's Google's negligent bug that kills the family of 4 instead of a driver, Google gets sued. Google has much deeper pockets than the driver who would typically declare bankruptcy, effectively capping the damages. No real cap for Google, every time. So that explodes the cost of autonomous ve…

Google however does have the ability to hand over the cost of insuring such a system to the consumer, so even at current accident rates the cost is around 100 dollars a month per car using such a system (driving 12000 miles in a year). This equates to something like a cent per mile. So let's say they want incredibly high quality insurance, charging an extra 5 cents per mile won't make a difference in the scheme of things should they be able to get the overall cost of commuting 15 miles (the average American commute in one direction), to something under 5 dollars.
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