Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

Post by Retric » Mon, Aug 07, 2017, 5:41 PM UTC

wyager wrote: post #170

PDoyle wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, really interesting read. Thanks for the link. Only trouble is that once people find patterns like this, they have a habit of disappearing. Hopefully this one is based on solid enough fundamental market forces that it persists after its publication. It was published in 2013 so we won't know for sure until after 2023.

> Hopefully this one is based on solid enough fundamental market forces that it persists after its publication. If you can find any way to predict the future price of things, you can make money by performing arbitrage across time (instead of space, which is how people usually think of arbitrage). This (nominally) describes all types of model-informed time-based investment. The thing with arbitrage is that there's a f…

Post by aphextron » Mon, Aug 07, 2017, 5:45 PM UTC

pdog wrote: post #69

If you're looking for The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns[1], here it is: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-gre... This is a long read, but it's worth it. The metric can be calculated in FRED[2], and as a predictor of future returns, it outperforms all of the most common stock market valuation metrics, including cyclically-adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio[3]. (Basic…

Post by ajmarsh » Mon, Aug 07, 2017, 5:47 PM UTC

luckydude wrote: post #84

misja111 wrote: post #78

The metric used to calculate market overvaluation is interesting but it has little value for predicting a stock market crash. Let's take he last 3 major US crashes: 1987: this crash was caused by automated trading systems which could run wild in the absence of any prevention regulations such as circuit breakers 2000: the collapse of the dotcom bubble 2008: start of the financial crisis caused mainly by opaque credit…

"occurrences that nobody was aware of and that were only understood afterwards" Umm, I'm no genius but I was managing my mother's money at the time of the 2008 crash. It was very obvious to me that there was going to be a crash, I pulled out of the market in late 2006 and didn't lose a dime in the crash. I think the better statement is "The 2008 crash was obvious but many people were in denial". Again, I'm not a fina…

Post by duderific » Mon, Aug 07, 2017, 5:48 PM UTC

notyourwork wrote: post #41

SmellTheGlove wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't worry about student loan debt being a problem. It's very likely that they're going to get a bailout before a bubble bursts. Where on earth did I come up with this, you ask? Easy - I just paid my student loans off last week. It's only natural that everyone else will now get bailed out! Seriously, though, this is a real problem and we need to do something. Even if it doesn't have a direct effect any time soo…

I completely agree, this is going to be a problem for our generation. For those of us who are lucky enough to not have any student debt, how can we take advantage of this?

Post by seanmcdirmid » Mon, Aug 07, 2017, 5:59 PM UTC

PDoyle wrote: post #119

pdog wrote: post #69

If you're looking for The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns[1], here it is: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-gre... This is a long read, but it's worth it. The metric can be calculated in FRED[2], and as a predictor of future returns, it outperforms all of the most common stock market valuation metrics, including cyclically-adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio[3]. (Basic…

Wow, really interesting read. Thanks for the link. Only trouble is that once people find patterns like this, they have a habit of disappearing. Hopefully this one is based on solid enough fundamental market forces that it persists after its publication. It was published in 2013 so we won't know for sure until after 2023.