Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ignoring correlations to market downturns and ignoring the data is delusional https://www.google.com/search?site=&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1...
Bitcoin came into existence in 2009. Nobody was buying Bitcoin in 2008 because it did not exist in 2008. We don't have data to support the claim that people would rush Bitcoin amidst stock market crashes. We do have data supporting the claim that they rush into traditionally safe assets, i.e. insured bank deposits and Treasuries. Regarding Cyprus, wealthy Cypriots--by and large--bought German and Greek government bon…
Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
181–190 of 338 posts
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#182Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#183Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#184This thread and a few offline conversations made me reexamine what I believe about the stock market and the nature of the 2000 and 2008 collapses. Of course, I'm not an econ nor do I have data to back up anything I'm saying.
All manias, from tulips to tech IPOs to housing bubbles are born when the common person joins the frenzy. On the flip side, the mania collapses when the common person walks away or never shows up the party. For the tech IPO frenzy of 2000, the common person never even showed up to use all those exotic new ideas which were getting funded and going public. During the housing bubble, the common person bought and sold houses which setup the flywheel. Eventually, the common person walked away from the asset in question bringing down the entire charade.
Today, the market is soaring. People are starting to wonder when gravity will reassert itself but in my view, this time the difference is that the common person cannot walk away. Unless adblocking and disdain for social media become extremely mainstream, the common person is so busy amusing themselves to death online that they are not going to leave the tech mania. Companies like FB and Google have made the web sticky.
Does this mean the stock market will rise indefinitely? I don't know. I do know that once there is a captive market comprising everyone online, no company is going to stop advertising or figuring out ways to reach buyers online.
We are in a new age where you just can't get away from the web. We are the product but we also have no way of exiting the dragnet.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Seriously, though, this is a real problem and we need to do something the thing we have to do is not borrow money we can't repay. capitalism is a distributed system. borrowing money you can't repay is a broken local protocol. don't try to fix that with anything but fixing it locally.
This is at least partially true, but ignores the "reality on the ground." Even many entry-level jobs require a college degree now, and forgoing a college education makes you unhirable in many markets. Until that changes, "college you can't afford" is pretty much a mandatory expense. There are ways to minimize the cost -- basically two years at a community college and two years at a state school -- but the days of bei…
Everything has a mix of intrinsic and perceived value and this changes over time. The more a thing is composed of perceived value the more volatile it is. I'd say all stocks are composed of at least 50% perceived value.
Perceived value can often drag intrinsic value upwards so investing in things with high perceived value can still be lucrative. Analysis moves from fundamentals to psychohistory. (bad psychohistory) Probabky based on some combination of time to death of cultural momentum and half life of faith isotopes.
College degrees were a thing that quickly lost perceived value because it was based on rarity. (the only rarity that doesn't drive itself to commoditization is useless rarity like expensive wines and designer bags. 100% pure perceived value things not worth commoditixation)
At an individual level the high intrinsic value degrees do well but overall they haven't as most degrees in the US were supplementary for Masters of the Universe type. Education to fill the void in your life.
The post WW2 dominance faded though and the upper levels of Maslow's pyramid were no longer the issue. Basic survival and making a living was. Globalization also created huge pressure and competition for useful jobs.
What happened in the US was essentially a dearth of sinecure positions based on a secure moat that is now deteriorating. Those who are hit hardest by this desire a return to the past, in their eyes this is being "More American". They simply can't compete with a workforce with much stronger work ethics out of having much more experience with dealing with daily survival of a more extreme kind.
This is how the education system is failing. A country for abundance needs either output or the ability to extract rent via moats or force. The US also has a strong immigration culture that can "steal" output from other countries. Though at the cost of making "doing right by americans" a very loaded and confusing idea to parse.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#186Earlier quoted context omitted.
Bitcoin came into existence in 2009. Nobody was buying Bitcoin in 2008 because it did not exist in 2008. We don't have data to support the claim that people would rush Bitcoin amidst stock market crashes. We do have data supporting the claim that they rush into traditionally safe assets, i.e. insured bank deposits and Treasuries. Regarding Cyprus, wealthy Cypriots--by and large--bought German and Greek government bon…
The crash came into existence in 2008 and Bitcoin began to rise in 2009. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2014/01/03...
Bitcoin came into existence in January of 2009. What was it supposed to do? Start stealing its owners' money and go negative?
Also, everything rose in 2009. The S&P 500 was up 23%. Bonds were up, commodities were up...that's what happens after you scrape past a global financial meltdown. Sure, Bitcoin was up like five thousand percent, but that's the difference between a tens of millions and hundreds of billion in market capitalisation, things that are very volatile and things that are not, and venture versus mature.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#187The metric used to calculate market overvaluation is interesting but it has little value for predicting a stock market crash. Let's take he last 3 major US crashes: 1987: this crash was caused by automated trading systems which could run wild in the absence of any prevention regulations such as circuit breakers 2000: the collapse of the dotcom bubble 2008: start of the financial crisis caused mainly by opaque credit…
No, the 2008 crash wasn't a black swan. It just came from the debt side, rather than the equity side. It was clear this was coming. In 2004, I wrote this, on my "downside.com": [1] The next crash looks to be housing-related. Fannie Mae is in trouble. But not because of their accounting irregularities. The problem is more fundamental. They borrow short, lend long, and paper over the resulting interest rate risk with d…
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#188Just curious what HN readers think. For the giggles...I'm going short when the tape says market sell orders exceed the rate of bid additions, and the opposite for going long. I like long-term analysis as much as the next guy, I just never, ever, ever, ever, ever make decisions based on it.
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#189American companies sell products & services outside of the United States. Comparing American GDP with the aggregate value of the US stock-market is deeply misleading, especially given a historical comparison: foreign markets such as China have gained in relative importance over timeframe under consideration. When looking at debt, one should not just observe the nominal amount, but also the interest rates, which have…
Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?
#190Earlier quoted context omitted.
> And Bitcoin Given Bitcoin's "capitalisation" failed to hit even $10bn until well after the crisis [1], it's safe to say that more capital moved, in almost any single U.S. state, from stocks to corporate bonds, than from anything to Bitcoin. Being optimistic about the future of a technology is fine. Being delusional about its history is not. [1] https://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap
Ignoring correlations to market downturns and ignoring the data is delusional https://www.google.com/search?site=&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1...