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Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

isthestockmarketgoingtocrash.com

91–100 of 338 posts

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#91
post #49

As the site makes clear, nobody really ever knows if the market is going to crash. On the market valuation side they claim the current market is overvalued. But overvalued is a relative term... As you have to value versus something, and that something is usually something historical. The way I see it though is the markets are a big voting machine.. and they're making predictions about the future and incorporating fut…

> The way I see it though is the markets are a big voting machine.. and they're making predictions about the future and incorporating future expectations

This is likely true because of "wisdom of crowds" (aka regression to mean of randomly-sampled human estimates).

> With the current US administration still pondering over tax plans and infrastructure stimulus packages that are promised, market may be underpriced???

The president doesn't control taxes or spending, and he can't do anything about infrastructure on his own. All he can do is use political capital to push Congress in a certain direction. So far, he's been totally unable to do that.

In terms of the national economy, the US is the same as it was under Obama -- House totally under Republican control, Senate mostly under Republican control, Janet Yellen running the Fed, no major shocks.

There's little unity among Republican Congresspeople, and even less when you include Democrats. Tax reform may be a bipartisan issue, but it's likely going to be limited to simplifying the tax code (lowering taxes while closing corporate loopholes). If all the trickle-down dinosaurs believe that higher corporate taxes will harm the economy (which it almost surely won't), then the stock market should -- if anything -- go down.

This could mean that it's underpriced, but not for the reasons you seem to suggest.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#92
post #69

If you're looking for The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns[1], here it is: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-gre... This is a long read, but it's worth it. The metric can be calculated in FRED[2], and as a predictor of future returns, it outperforms all of the most common stock market valuation metrics, including cyclically-adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio[3]. (Basic…

When the yield curve begins to dip, a flight to quality will begin into crypto's.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#94

The metric used to calculate market overvaluation is interesting but it has little value for predicting a stock market crash. Let's take he last 3 major US crashes: 1987: this crash was caused by automated trading systems which could run wild in the absence of any prevention regulations such as circuit breakers 2000: the collapse of the dotcom bubble 2008: start of the financial crisis caused mainly by opaque credit…

"occurrences that nobody was aware of and that were only understood afterwards" Umm, I'm no genius but I was managing my mother's money at the time of the 2008 crash. It was very obvious to me that there was going to be a crash, I pulled out of the market in late 2006 and didn't lose a dime in the crash. I think the better statement is "The 2008 crash was obvious but many people were in denial". Again, I'm not a fina…

Predicting a crash is easy but timing it with accuracy is extremely difficult. In fact you were two years too early and lost out on a lot of potential return.

There will always be a crash/correction. Easy. But when?

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#95
post #69

If you're looking for The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns[1], here it is: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-gre... This is a long read, but it's worth it. The metric can be calculated in FRED[2], and as a predictor of future returns, it outperforms all of the most common stock market valuation metrics, including cyclically-adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio[3]. (Basic…

When the yield curve begins to dip, a flight to quality will begin into crypto's.

[deleted]

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#97
post #25

The page strives solely on it's nice graphics, and sensationalist wording. There is little to no content of substance. For example the page calculates "Market Overvaluation" as the US stock market value divided by the yearly US GDP. Hilarious.

It didn't seem that serious based on the subtitle:

>No one knows for sure, but there are indicators that can help us guess. We can chart these indicators to give us the illusion of foresight.

Maybe it's a parody?

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#100
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is at least partially true, but ignores the "reality on the ground." Even many entry-level jobs require a college degree now, and forgoing a college education makes you unhirable in many markets. Until that changes, "college you can't afford" is pretty much a mandatory expense. There are ways to minimize the cost -- basically two years at a community college and two years at a state school -- but the days of bei…

I think college degree is highly overrated, and higher education is very inefficient overall. But it is like a prisoners' dilemma, where all of the to-be-students would be better off if say 70% of them didn't go to college, but no individual has the incentive to decide so. They wouldn't need to pay the enormous tuition, and as the job market would change (as far less people would have a college degree), the lack of d…

College degrees are oversaturated, but there's no real alternative outside of a few fields where education isn't as important as experience.

College degree nowadays is basically a pre-requisite for not getting your resume thrown out at first glance.

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