commonte
Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake
141–150 of 187 posts
Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake
#142I wonder how much of this is simply the Gigafactory coming online at full production + others trying to keep their factories running. If you look at Tesla's plan to be making 10,000 model 3's a week, with a nominal 90 kWh battery in each that is 900 MWh a week of capacity or 46 GWh capacity a year. But it is all tied up in cars of course[1]. The power companies have been screwing around with rate plans to keep grid-t…
>with a nominal 90 kWh battery Model 3 has a base 60kWh battery, with upgrade available to 75.
I don't believe that's correct. The Model 3 has both a smaller range and lighter weight than a Model S did at 60kWh, indicating a smaller battery.
Tesla hasn't confirmed how large the pack is at all, but they have specifically confirmed it's less than 60.
I think it's either 40 or 50.
https://electrek.co/2016/04/26/tesla-model-3-battery-pack-co...
Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake
#143Any medium-to-large commercial campus with time-of-use-billing and large electrical bills may likely benefit from building a 500 kWhr - 3MWhr li-ion battery bank, 480VAC inverter, transfer and switchgear to buy electricity off-peak to use at-peak. The costs for lightly-used inverters and LFP module packs make it compelling to evaluate. For example, Jehu Garcia (@jag35) is involved in a 1 MWhr bank for a manufacturing customer in SoCal that looks really P&L sensible.
Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
Remember, the south of the US is in the subtropics, roughly level with the north of Africa. Imagine living in Egypt and not running the AC constantly.
I spent much of last year in Southeast Asia within ten degrees of the equator and rarely had A/C. It wasn't a problem for me, though my computer was often unhappy. I went to Egypt as a teenager and remember the temperature in Sharm el Sheikh cracking 50C. We would literally sprint from the A/C in the hotel across the beach to the water because the sand was too hot to walk. Equivalent latitude doesn't mean equivalent…
According to WolframAlpha, the hottest temp on record in Cairo is 118°F, while Phoenix, AZ has hit 123°F. Even the average high is 5°F higher in Phoenix.
Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake
#145Earlier quoted context omitted.
Remember, the south of the US is in the subtropics, roughly level with the north of Africa. Imagine living in Egypt and not running the AC constantly.
There are a lot of people living in Egypt who don't have to imagine that.
Yes, but I was talking to a British fellow.
Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake
#146Earlier quoted context omitted.
God I hope so. Ford figured this shit out over 100 years ago... 3 shifts maximized factory output. Also having 5 day vs 6 day work weeks didn't significantly reduce factory output, but helped significantly reduce turnover. I swear, it's Musk's biggest weakness, not realizing the costs of mistakes people make when they're tired. I couldn't get through his recent biography because I kept seeing mistake after mistake be…
It is not uncommon for factory workers to prefer 12 hour shifts and working alternating 3 and 4 day work weeks. That staffs a 24x7 operation with four crews of workers.
Interesting. That might work assuming workers get an appropriate amount of rest. I know it works well for nursing staff to have longer shifts. There's definitely a cost to handing off tasks, though I expect this to be near zero in a factory setting.
I just know that people get really dumb when they're tired, and it's the same kind of dumb as oxygen deprevation where people actually think they're not effected.
I'd be curious if these 12 hour shifts are preferences for personal reasons, or if there are measurable benefits in the factory as well.
Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake
#147Earlier quoted context omitted.
>It's workable and scales if we are able to reuse lithium. When does that happen? (recycling is not reuse) I assume you mean reuse is not recycling ie using old batteries as lower-capacity storage is not workable indefinitely. First off the most pressing issue is that there is no practical replacement for cobalt in many li-ion applications. Chemistries without cobalt, like lithium titanate or iron phosphate, have a p…
Sulfur beats cobalt on energy density by a significant margin; its theoretical specific energy is 5x as large, although the chemistry is much more complex: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hong-Jie_Peng/publicati... There is one company in Colorado making Li-S batteries at small scale: http://www.solidpowerbattery.com/
LiS8 + silicon batteries would be a dream: immediate 8x boost in capacity for a given weight and the size is halved.
Unfortunately the damn thing tries to swell to 200% size when you charge it and lasts for six cycles. Someone may figure out how to make it work but most likely itll use nanotech (like a123 did with FePO4, or a graphene coating). The fact is its such a hard problem there are very few ways it could be done cheaply. Right now LiS is only applicable to very, very niche applications. SolarImpulse used them. They come at a very high price and limited longevity.
Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake
#148Earlier quoted context omitted.
The powerwalls and powerpacks use a different chemistry from the cars, and are still using the 18650 size going forward. It's trivially easy to change the size of cylindrical batteries. Li-ion batteries are essentially a tape, and the second to last step of production is to roll the tape up and insert it into the battery. Different cells just require different cans and widths of tape.
I'm pretty sure Powerwall 2 uses the same 2170 cells as the Model 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Powerwall#Technology and see the note on 2170 cells on this page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_battery_sizes#Lithium-...
My mistake! You are correct.
Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake
#149Earlier quoted context omitted.
That wouldn't work for much of the South where summer usage for a house can easily hit 100 kWh/day for air conditioning. The hottest part of the day usually starts at about the end of the prime solar hours. Plus you'll want massive overcapacity of your batteries as deep discharges drastically reduce their useful lifespan.
> That wouldn't work for much of the South where summer usage for a house can easily hit 100 kWh/day for air conditioning. It should be noted that peak energy expenditure for air conditioning happens more or less at exactly the moment when the influx of energy from the Sun is also at its peak. That's, like, a gigantic hint that mother nature is dropping on you, hoping you'll notice it. The disease, and its cure, are…
From the grandparent's post:
> "The hottest part of the day usually starts at about the end of the prime solar hours."
Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake
#150Earlier quoted context omitted.
God I hope so. Ford figured this shit out over 100 years ago... 3 shifts maximized factory output. Also having 5 day vs 6 day work weeks didn't significantly reduce factory output, but helped significantly reduce turnover. I swear, it's Musk's biggest weakness, not realizing the costs of mistakes people make when they're tired. I couldn't get through his recent biography because I kept seeing mistake after mistake be…
It is not uncommon for factory workers to prefer 12 hour shifts and working alternating 3 and 4 day work weeks. That staffs a 24x7 operation with four crews of workers.
There is a good chance that what people prefer does not correlate with what works best. People plan for their lives, the company plans for efficient work. This isn't uncharted territory, and I have never heard of any study claiming 12 hour shifts are more productive / safer / less error prone.