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Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

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Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#161
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with my whole heart. I think we have a moral imperative to develop electronic transportation, sooner rather than later. We think about the future much too little. Ever since we decide to concentrate farming and transport most food to mouths, we've relied on oil as a life-support system for 7.5+ billion people. There is no going back to pre-oil without a lot of those people dying, and oil will eventually be to…

> "It’s as if there’s a worldwide commitment to helping this company succeed" This statement makes me so happy, (a) because I feel I've noticed the same thing, (b) because it gives me faith that people actually care about putting money in good/important places, and (c) it implies that the economy understands that sustainable transport is actually an important cause, to the tune of $50B. This is what investment should…

The Wait Buy Why blog did an article on Neuralink and went into Elon's motivation and strategy for making a business that makes the world a better place. It's a really great model.

Model --> https://28oa9i1t08037ue3m1l0i861-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-...

Full Article --> https://waitbutwhy.com/2017/04/neuralink.html

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#162

> “He’s going to need capital,” said Ross Gerber, chief executive officer of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, which holds Tesla shares. “That’s the one part of the financials that are a little bit troubling. To underestimate the cash burn over the next six months will be a mistake.” It's not that troubling. Even massive companies (AMZN in 2014) need to raise big capital. When you have something you wan…

There is a lot of question about whether Amazon's astronomical PE is warranted as well.

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really doubt the other car companies will let that happen. Either they'll work out the battery and motor tech themselves OR they'll push for hydrogen. The automotive industry isn't going to let a company like Tesla bully them around.

Audi already had to scrap one of their EV models, because its technology was so far behind Tesla's by the time it was ready to hit the market. Traditional car makers are just extremely slow to adjust, because they have never faced any real disruption. They've effectively been selling the same product for decades with only some marginal and incremental improvements. Tesla, on the other hand, is using the SV model of d…

> Traditional car makers are just extremely slow to adjust, because they have never faced any real disruption

Is there a term for the dismissive attitude tech people have for any older company?

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#164

> “He’s going to need capital,” said Ross Gerber, chief executive officer of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, which holds Tesla shares. “That’s the one part of the financials that are a little bit troubling. To underestimate the cash burn over the next six months will be a mistake.” It's not that troubling. Even massive companies (AMZN in 2014) need to raise big capital. When you have something you wan…

Yes, I learned this fact painfully. I bailed on my IPO AMZN shares because they kept taking on massive debt. Just didn't have the stomach for it. Of course, that was 2004, about 1/20 of today's price.

I passed up a job there when they were opening up for the first time. That's life.

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#165
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think there's a huge risk for Tesla that most people don't factor in- that it's very possible that most car buyers simply don't want one. This is a legit worry, but well-designed electric cars are better than gas cars by a large margin, without question. Ultimately this is the only requirement, and it's one of the reasons Tesla is so extreme in its design aspirations. So this risk is not a risk at all in the case…

Why is it not a risk for Tesla but a risk for Chevrolet?

Because Tesla is good at design, and Chevrolet is not.

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#166
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to venture that it's not even a rounding error. In fact, in places it will likely have increased the CO2 emissions, again rounding error figures, due to the electricity generation mix and associated losses with generating that electricity (30-60% efficiency), plus transport losses (0.5 - 10%), plus charging loses, plus the efficiency of the motor itself.

If Tesla was actively working to prop up our fossil fuel based electricity grid, than I think this would be a fair argument. But they are not. Instead they are actively engaged in the solar+storage market, and they have stated multiple times that they believe the grid can be 100% renewable. In the short term, yes, folks will need to rely on existing fossil fuel technologies to build factories, transport materials, an…

I'm just pointing out that both effects are, at this point in time, just rounding errors

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#167
post #80
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whether Tesla survives or not, these billions are some of the best spent money on the planet in the last 50 years. What are the accumulated losses so far? $5-10B? Even if Tesla were to spend another $50B and go bankrupt, I would still maintain it's great. What Tesla has achieved is so important in the long run for the environment, for ending the strategic dependence on oil dictatorships, and for renewing the belief i…

So what has been the net reduction of CO2 usage because of tesla to date?

Tesla has made fewer than 190000 cars total, to date. Over 77 million cars were sold worldwide last year. And that's just cars.

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#168
post #35
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people will be driving either a Tesla or a Chinese-made electric car in a couple of years, and like with the iPhone vs. cheap Androids there is a good chance that people will prefer Teslas for their familiar UI, American design, or some other reason we currently don't even have on our radar.

Why are people so sure of this, especially given the recent plummet in oil prices? Car sales are at all time highs. Why do people assume that there's going to be a mass exodus to Tesla and EV's in the next few years?

Oil companies recently raised their projections on EV adoption by 40% [1]. Many countries are setting aggressive EV quotas, targeting 100% EV adoption in the near future [2, 3]. Perhaps counter-intuitively, oil prices have not historically affected EV purchases [4]. Detailed sales trackers have shown consistent year-over-year growth in the EV segment for the past 22 consecutive months [5], a time when oil prices have been relatively low [6]. Even with low gasoline prices, driving an EV is reported to be less expensive per mile [7].

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-14/big-oil-j...

[2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/04/30/indias-a...

[3] https://thinkprogress.org/norway-aims-to-end-sales-of-fuel-b...

[4] http://www.fleetcarma.com/buying-ev-low-oil-prices/

[5] http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

[6] http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/crude-oil/5-...

[7] https://www.pluglesspower.com/learn/driving-electricity-chea...

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to venture that it's not even a rounding error. In fact, in places it will likely have increased the CO2 emissions, again rounding error figures, due to the electricity generation mix and associated losses with generating that electricity (30-60% efficiency), plus transport losses (0.5 - 10%), plus charging loses, plus the efficiency of the motor itself.

The internal combustion engine in a car is around 20% efficiency while a coal power plant is around 55%. Gasoline powered drivetrains are also fairly inefficient leading to around 16% "tank to wheel" efficiency. Electric motors are about 90% efficient. An electric car is making more efficient use of the energy. It's also centralizing the source of the pollution rather than having to try to deal with it in every car o…

A coal power plant can reach up to ~60% if coupled with steam turbines, otherwise it's ~30%.

Petrol cars can do a lot better than 20%

There is a study, link below, showing what the subsidy should be for electric cars and in a lot of places in the US the subsidy should be negative.

Granted things might've changed since then, but probably not to overturn the gist of it, which is the point I'm making. In places, EV cars are not the solution.

Quite happy to be proven wrong, at the of the day I've only got a passing interest on the topic so I'm not exactly 100% up to speed with any new studies, etc ...

https://www.citylab.com/environment/2015/06/where-electric-v...

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They have so much cash they could buy Disney outright if they wanted to. Think about that for a second... Yeah and they don't. Why don't they buy Tesla? Why don't they buy Disney? Why don't they attempt to reinvent home construction which is a stagnant for the most part? Why aren't they the next Bell labs? Why not reinvent major home appliances most of which are a huge drag and a dumpster fire of usability? "This c…

People use cash as a shorthand but it's not literally dead cash sitting in a bank account. That $250B is sitting in index funds and T bills where it's indirectly funding all of those businesses that are investing in sustainable housing and improved appliances and a billion other things. Apple just believes those companies have a better shot at accomplishing those goals than Apple does and it's fine letting them conti…

>>Apple just believes those companies

You want us to believe Apple is a charity now?

Pretty sure it's more about paying repatriation taxes.

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