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Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

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Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100 kWh/day is just incredible. The average consumption per person in the nordics is about 1500 kWh per YEAR.

I would have thought that heating would require a lot of energy in the Nordic countries - but perhaps that doesn't use much electricity? I live in the NW US, in a heavily-insulated passivhaus with a 5kW PV array on my roof, and my average usage is 13kWh / day (though I am also charging a PHEV vehicle's battery some days, and still using an ineffecient old hex-core Xeon workstation on top of heating and cooling, heati…

I believe, they don't use electricity to heat the house in -20C, and few live in detouched houses.

Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#52
post #40

I wonder how much of this is simply the Gigafactory coming online at full production + others trying to keep their factories running. If you look at Tesla's plan to be making 10,000 model 3's a week, with a nominal 90 kWh battery in each that is 900 MWh a week of capacity or 46 GWh capacity a year. But it is all tied up in cars of course[1]. The power companies have been screwing around with rate plans to keep grid-t…

>I wonder how much of this is simply the Gigafactory coming online at full production + others trying to keep their factories running. The "Gigafactory," is a drop in the ocean if you count noname Chinese factories, but it will be one of the biggest market players outside of China

We have different ideas about 'drops in the ocean' :-) See this article (http://fortune.com/2017/06/28/elon-musk-china-battery/) for some numbers. Projected Gigafactory production (as more come on line) could continue to be 25 to 35% of the global production of batteries.

My father-in-law, who is a big booster of South America, feels that if Argentina, Brazil, and Chile got together they could move up the 'value chain' and produce batteries for export. I do know that much of the raw lithium comes from Argentina and Chile so I expect there is some truth to that idea.

Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#53
post #39

Hah, I misinterpreted "storage" here, and thought this was going to be about Li-ion cells getting cheap enough to replace the capacitors in the Power Loss Protection circuits in hard drives/SSDs/NVMe boards. Which doesn't make sense, after giving it a second's thought—batteries wear out after just a few years, while capacitors (very nearly) don't, so it'd put a hard lifetime on drives. (Though, for server use-cases w…

Portable computers sort of do that.

I had a vague idea that I had heard something similar before:

http://www.zdnet.com/article/google-reveals-secret-server-ha...

Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That wouldn't work for much of the South where summer usage for a house can easily hit 100 kWh/day for air conditioning. The hottest part of the day usually starts at about the end of the prime solar hours. Plus you'll want massive overcapacity of your batteries as deep discharges drastically reduce their useful lifespan.

Wow - that's a crazy amount of energy. As a Brit who's never been the south of the US, is that figure really true? 100kWh is about 300 miles in a Tesla, or boiling a kettle constantly for about 30 hours. If that's really accurate, then I'm staggered at how much energy folks must be using to keep cool, and makes my efforts at saving energy seem paltry in comparison.

The Texas summer is brutal [1].

Last month my average home used between 100 and 120 kwh per day [2].

Luckily we rarely have to heat in the winter - although it's not uncommon to have the A/C running for Christmas.

[1]: http://www.statesman.com/news/local/wipe-that-brow-austin-re...

[2]: http://imgur.com/a/45oGu

Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#55
post #38

Using lithium-ion batteries for stationary storage is interesting because their original advantage was all about light weight (lithium is the lightest metal element). Now, it seems the development effort devoted to lithium-ion has paid off so well that they are the best OVERALL battery solution. The single-minded effort we put into cell phones and cars is so strong that it now reaches all the way to homes and the gri…

Don't lithium-ion batteries degrade extremely quickly, though? Won't these all be down to half capacity or so within a decade?

Is it really worth investing in gargantuan quantities of energy storage if they need to be replaced every few years? I'd be eyeing EDLC technologies or something like molten salts over giant stationary phone/laptop/car/etc batteries.

Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#57

I wonder how much of this is simply the Gigafactory coming online at full production + others trying to keep their factories running. If you look at Tesla's plan to be making 10,000 model 3's a week, with a nominal 90 kWh battery in each that is 900 MWh a week of capacity or 46 GWh capacity a year. But it is all tied up in cars of course[1]. The power companies have been screwing around with rate plans to keep grid-t…

Will the GigaFactory operate on weekends ? 1400~ car per day .. I'd love to see that on video.

Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#58

I wonder how much of this is simply the Gigafactory coming online at full production + others trying to keep their factories running. If you look at Tesla's plan to be making 10,000 model 3's a week, with a nominal 90 kWh battery in each that is 900 MWh a week of capacity or 46 GWh capacity a year. But it is all tied up in cars of course[1]. The power companies have been screwing around with rate plans to keep grid-t…

Will the GigaFactory operate on weekends ? 1400~ car per day .. I'd love to see that on video.

The Gigafactory operates seven days a week with two shifts.

Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#59
post #38

Using lithium-ion batteries for stationary storage is interesting because their original advantage was all about light weight (lithium is the lightest metal element). Now, it seems the development effort devoted to lithium-ion has paid off so well that they are the best OVERALL battery solution. The single-minded effort we put into cell phones and cars is so strong that it now reaches all the way to homes and the gri…

Don't lithium-ion batteries degrade extremely quickly, though? Won't these all be down to half capacity or so within a decade? Is it really worth investing in gargantuan quantities of energy storage if they need to be replaced every few years? I'd be eyeing EDLC technologies or something like molten salts over giant stationary phone/laptop/car/etc batteries.

No, they don't degrade that fast. They'll be good for at least 15 years based on charge/discharge cycle data Tesla has collected from vehicles.

Re: Falling lithium-ion battery prices to drive rapid storage uptake

#60

I wonder how much of this is simply the Gigafactory coming online at full production + others trying to keep their factories running. If you look at Tesla's plan to be making 10,000 model 3's a week, with a nominal 90 kWh battery in each that is 900 MWh a week of capacity or 46 GWh capacity a year. But it is all tied up in cars of course[1]. The power companies have been screwing around with rate plans to keep grid-t…

>with a nominal 90 kWh battery

Model 3 has a base 60kWh battery, with upgrade available to 75.

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