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Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

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Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#71

Post by rsync »

simonsarris wrote: post #39
abritinthebay wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your point about companies with large cash hoards is true but breaks down at the sheer scale of Apple & it’s cash reserve. Apple is routinely making several billion dollar bets. They invest Amazon & Tesla debts regularly but it just doesn’t make a dent . At some point a cash pile is so large it’s basically impossible to spend responsibly. Even with big bets. They have so much cash they could buy Disney outright if th…

> They have so much cash they could buy Disney outright if they wanted to. Think about that for a second... Yeah and they don't. Why don't they buy Tesla? Why don't they buy Disney? Why don't they attempt to reinvent home construction which is a stagnant for the most part? Why aren't they the next Bell labs? Why not reinvent major home appliances most of which are a huge drag and a dumpster fire of usability? "This c…

"Why don't they buy Tesla? Why don't they buy Disney? Why don't they attempt to reinvent home construction which is a stagnant for the most part?"

I think it's worth considering that prices for assets just might be a little high right now.

I have no idea what Apple is doing and don't have any specific insights but I have, in the past few years, found myself passing on certain growth and investment opportunities because I felt the prices were quite high relative to what I think the prices could be in the next 3-5 years.

Why buy Disney now when you can buy two of them a few years from now ?

On the flip side, I think there is some political risk for Apple here in sitting on too large of a cash horde ... there is a point when the amount of money becomes too big to ignore, politically. Consider that a 1% taking of some form amounts to almost $3B. At some point someone will figure out how to structure such a taking ...

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#72

Post by tbabb »

simonsarris wrote: post #64
flexie wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whether Tesla survives or not, these billions are some of the best spent money on the planet in the last 50 years. What are the accumulated losses so far? $5-10B? Even if Tesla were to spend another $50B and go bankrupt, I would still maintain it's great. What Tesla has achieved is so important in the long run for the environment, for ending the strategic dependence on oil dictatorships, and for renewing the belief i…

I agree with my whole heart. I think we have a moral imperative to develop electronic transportation, sooner rather than later. We think about the future much too little. Ever since we decide to concentrate farming and transport most food to mouths, we've relied on oil as a life-support system for 7.5+ billion people. There is no going back to pre-oil without a lot of those people dying, and oil will eventually be to…

> "It’s as if there’s a worldwide commitment to helping this company succeed"

This statement makes me so happy, (a) because I feel I've noticed the same thing, (b) because it gives me faith that people actually care about putting money in good/important places, and (c) it implies that the economy understands that sustainable transport is actually an important cause, to the tune of $50B. This is what investment should be about: People cooperating to improve the way things are.

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#73

Post by Helmet »

aiyodev wrote: post #57

Elon Musk's empire is a house of cards built on self promotion and empty promises. It's only a matter of time before the whole thing comes crashing down.

Really? Empty promises? Here you go:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_SpaceX

And he's about to pull it off again with Tesla. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#74

Post by rsync »

dkrich wrote: post #28
jotjotzzz wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's much of a risk. They created a product that is way differentiated from every other car out there and people want to buy it. It's like seeing the iPhone for the first time, and all the other flip-phones out there is simply just not enough anymore. They will succeed. If I'm in the market for a new car, I would totally line up for this one.

This is where I disagree with most people who are bullish on Tesla. I think there's a huge risk for Tesla that most people don't factor in- that it's very possible that most car buyers simply don't want one . The interesting thing about that is that most people seem to assume that making them at enormous scale and meeting the overwhelming demand is the only risk. What a century of observing the auto industry has taug…

"What a century of observing the auto industry has taught us is that car buyers in huge percentages have fierce brand-loyalty and that anytime a new model is brought to market there's a huge uphill battle to create demand."

I think we could be at a point similar to laptop buyers in 2002/2003/2004.

Remember when there were multiple companies making laptops and you would comparison shop and read reviews and look ahead to some new line of Fujitsu vs. Sony vs. Panasonic laptops and maybe visit dynamism.com and see what was being sold in Japan and so on and so forth ?

And then 2-3 years later there was one laptop manufacturer: Apple. Everything else was irrelevant in the face of a solid block of metal with a glass screen that lasts 5-7 years and "just works". When was the last time you spec'd out different laptops - other than perhaps to read with mild interest about some Dell model built for Ubuntu that might possibly be an option but probably isn't.

I have mixed feelings about this ...

On the one hand, Apple laptops really are the best that has ever been and have largely "solved" the category.

On the other hand, without any competition we get strong-armed into certain design decisions that might not work for us ... glossy screens, no more full sized USB ports, maybe headphone jack goes away ...

Electric only drive, skateboard style battery platform (with dramatically lowered center of gravity) and AWD with multiple motors ... I want these innovations. But I would also like some choices in styling and design - especially since I dislike the Tesla interior design so much ...

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#75

Post by Reason077 »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #49
meddlepal wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really doubt the other car companies will let that happen. Either they'll work out the battery and motor tech themselves OR they'll push for hydrogen. The automotive industry isn't going to let a company like Tesla bully them around.

> The automotive industry isn't going to let a company like Tesla bully them around. They already have. Its too late. Who else is going to be producing 500k EVs a year in the next 3-5 years? No one.

Who else is going to be producing 500k EVs a year in the next 3-5 years? No one.

Renault-Nissan already produce around 100k EVs per year. Is it that hard to imagine them doing 500k in 5 years?

What about China? They're certainly making plans for these kinds of volumes.

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#76

Post by elsonrodriguez »

aiyodev wrote: post #57

Elon Musk's empire is a house of cards built on self promotion and empty promises. It's only a matter of time before the whole thing comes crashing down.

I'll take the house of cards jab, but the "empty promises" thing means I'll have to see a shrink about all the imaginary Teslas I see every day, and the SpaceX landings that are obviously a hoax.

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#77

Post by nicpottier »

lumberjack wrote: post #29
jotjotzzz wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's much of a risk. They created a product that is way differentiated from every other car out there and people want to buy it. It's like seeing the iPhone for the first time, and all the other flip-phones out there is simply just not enough anymore. They will succeed. If I'm in the market for a new car, I would totally line up for this one.

>They created a product that is way differentiated from every other car out there and people want to buy it. What? The Bolt has slightly better range, and probably much better build quality. The difference in price is $2k on a base price of $30k. And if Chevy could do it, I'm positive most others can too.

I really like the Bolt and agree as an electric vehicle it is super competitive.

But can I buy a Bolt today and get self driving capabilities on the same car in a few years? That's a pretty massive pull towards the Tesla even if you consider everything else equal.

You don't even have to pay for it now, you can wait it out and pay for the self driving to be activated later once you are sold, but not having to buy an entirely new car to do so is crazy.

I'm hugely bullish on Tesla because they just have so many different angles to win. They have the most experience with electric, they have a massive (and fast) charging network that continues to grow, their electric cars are the priority not a hedge and as mentioned above, they are moving fast into self driving.

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#78

Post by nicpottier »

dev1n wrote: post #6
samfisher83 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a slower roll out would be prudent. If you burn all your cash and you are forced to raise cash it puts you in a bad situation. This is brand new car. Companies like Toyota have issues with their cars and they generally only make incremental changes to each model, and Toyota Production System is probably one of most taught and studied system for production.

If you haven't seen a review on the model 3 I highly suggest MKBHD's review. He goes over how a lot of pieces of a standard car are stripped out (I.e. No physical buttons) this was to reduce manufacturing complexity and increase production speed. Toyota does not build cars like the way Tesla has engineered this end to end.

I watched that video as well and some of the stuff just doesn't make sense.

It is "cheaper and simpler" to have a software button actuate a relay to open my glovebox than having a simple latch? It is going to be easier to have electric actuators for redirecting air than having plastic blades I move myself?

It doesn't hold water. These are crazy Musk fantasies being realized like the gull wing doors, not because they are cheaper, easier or more reliable.

Don't get me wrong, I love Tesla, Musk and really love the model 3, but the reasoning just doesn't make sense.

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#79

Post by awkwarddaturtle »

Jesus. Look at the top comment and the replies in this thread. I find it hard to believe it is real HN commenters and not a TSLA PR campaign here.

"What are the accumulated losses so far? $5-10B? Even if Tesla were to spend another $50B and go bankrupt, I would still maintain it's great."

Seriously? This is being voted up?

Also, the top commenter here "simonsarris" is a top commenter in the other TSLA thread.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14914310

It's like a TSLA/Elon cult meeting in this thread.

Re: Tesla Burns Through Record Cash to Bring the Model 3 to Market

#80

Post by j7ake »

flexie wrote: post #61
simonsarris wrote: post #7

> “He’s going to need capital,” said Ross Gerber, chief executive officer of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, which holds Tesla shares. “That’s the one part of the financials that are a little bit troubling. To underestimate the cash burn over the next six months will be a mistake.” It's not that troubling. Even massive companies (AMZN in 2014) need to raise big capital. When you have something you wan…

Whether Tesla survives or not, these billions are some of the best spent money on the planet in the last 50 years. What are the accumulated losses so far? $5-10B? Even if Tesla were to spend another $50B and go bankrupt, I would still maintain it's great. What Tesla has achieved is so important in the long run for the environment, for ending the strategic dependence on oil dictatorships, and for renewing the belief i…

So what has been the net reduction of CO2 usage because of tesla to date?
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