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Hypnotized by Hyperloop

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Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#121

Post by dalbasal »

ethn wrote: post #77
dalbasal wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose you can make some variant of this argument about the modern economy, but I don't see why you're singling out Musk for this. Is it because transport infrastructure tends to be subsidized? If so, could we not make the same argument for roads, trains & such?

Roads aren't a speculative technology, they are proven to work, and are not owned by a private enterprise. Elon Musk is being subsidized to create a monopoly of transportation on commonly owned land. But yes, this isn't just a problem with Elon Musk, the political-industrial complex is a newer but persistent problem thats become exacerbated with age. Elon Musk is just a master at exploiting this hole.

Ok... a bunch of things in here.

One is investment into speculative vs proven ideas. I don't have a single/principled answer to that. Another is subsidization, though that is fairly common (almost universal) in transport . A third is monopoly. Again, almost unavoidable in transport.

I guess if you put the last two together, publicly subsidized private monopoly than you get to some "political-industrial complex" issues. If you object to these arrangement entirely in principle, than that's effectively an objection to privately built/run transport infrastructure in general. Public only. That's not that unusual a position.

I think that's fine, but I still don't see the hostility towards the idea of hyperloop or Elon Musk. Hyperloop is a concept/design. You could build it without Musk. You could build it without private money.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#122

Post by Tiktaalik »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #113
Tiktaalik wrote: post #112

The vague notion of Hyperloop is awful for cities for the reasons mentioned in this article. Municipal governments are fighting a very hard, uphill battle right now to get basic funding for proven conventional public transit services which would dramatically make life better for everyone. Musk dropping the promise of Hyperloop (with no interest on following up on the idea) has provided ammo for transit cynics and opp…

One thing I don't understand about the "induced demand" thing - surely there must be a limit to this? If you keep expanding roads, at some point you must hit the situation in which your capacity is greater than the number of people even remotely interested in traveling the road... I suppose the limit might be quite high, but I've never seen it discussed at all .

In discussions of supply and demand, something that isn't often discussed is the real, physical limits of supply creation in terms of construction time, costs, manpower and such. Demand is more flexible.

This reality is also frequently ignored in the housing conversation when people advocate the solution to high prices is to simply add more supply, as if it's a given that supply could be created fast enough to overtake demand. I find that no one really ever does the work, taking into account the friction of real life on supply creation, to figure out if that's likely to be the case.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#123

Post by eesmith »

usaphp wrote: post #33
Asdfbla wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Musk has been able to take two or three other previously considered impossible tasks and bring them to completion Such as? SpaceX and their reusable rockets might be the closest thing I guess. Tesla and his solar company use pretty conventional technology, on the other hand. He is willing to invest a lot of money, that's true. But when talking about the Hyperloop, it's hardly just his money that's at stake if govern…

> Tesla and his solar company use pretty conventional technology The technology might be conventional, but having useful Electric cars on the road was looking like impossible task back in the days before Tesla roadster

It all hinges on what "useful" and "impossible" means.

General Motors EV1 in the 1990s. NiMH cars could travel 100–140 mi.

Its fans thought it was useful.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#124

Post by logicallee »

dalbasal wrote: post #18

One feature of the transport market (from a mile high view) is that demand is almost infinite. If you can get 40kms in 45 minutes, then you can live within 40 miles of work and commute in that time. If you could go 400kms, then that becomes your commuting radius. We've seen people spread this way as earlier mechanized transport was invented. IE, average commute times didn't go down because of faster transport, distan…

very interesting point and analysis!

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#125

Post by mamon »

simias wrote: post #37
alexandros wrote: post #6

Couldn't finish this. It started off badly by calling the hyperloop "vacuum-powered". First, it's not even vacuum sealed (just low air pressure), and second, how can something even be powered by the vacuum? Are we just throwing terms around for effect here? Then, the author continues with more material errors. The hyperloop/tunnel combo apparently "requires a hard reboot" of the modern city. No it does not. The whole…

The article is not really addressing the technical merits of the hyperloop, but rather focuses on the PR behind it and why we're inherently drawn to it. The cool sci-fi project. >Then, the author continues with more material errors. The hyperloop/tunnel combo apparently "requires a hard reboot" of the modern city. No it does not. The whole point is that it is tunnels underneath the modern city. One of the advantage o…

If he thinks Hyperloop is viable he should build it with his own money. One of the reasons private businesses apply for public subsides is that they know they would never succeed without them. It's just easier to take risks with someone else's money :)

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#126

Post by kurthr »

lisper wrote: post #119
ethn wrote: post #25

The problem with the Hyper-loop and Elon Musk in general, isn't that Elon Musk is wrong or that the Hyper-loop won't work. The problem is that he engages in a nepotistic political-industrial complex. That is, he subsidizes his risk for the benefit of the shareholders and himself at the expense of the taxpayer. The same tax payers who are often in a state of financial uncertainty and destitution of education. The same…

> The problem ... isn't ... that the Hyper-loop won't work. Actually, that is the problem. The thermal expansion problem has not yet been solved, or even seriously addressed. Hyperloop proponents are completely ignoring it, giddily betting that a solution will somehow magically present itself because technological optimism always wins. Well, no, it doesn't. The only thing that always wins is the laws of physics.

I thank you for bringing this up and the chance to read about this issue elsewhere, but no it isn't a problem. We have 2000km long gas pipelines. They dont worry about it (on the surface where temperatures actually change). Serpentines work... there are so many solutions that one could be accidentally introduced. I think we're discussing a bikeshed.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#127

Post by dahoramanodoceu »

untog wrote: post #54
usaphp wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla and his solar company use pretty conventional technology The technology might be conventional, but having useful Electric cars on the road was looking like impossible task back in the days before Tesla roadster

Was it? If Tesla didn't exist would things look dramatically different today? All electric cars use pretty much the same technology. It's been developed by a variety of companies. No doubt Tesla has moved things along faster than if they weren't here, and they've made some fantastic products, but I think the economic argument for electric cars plays a far bigger role in their development than any one specific company…

The economic argument was this; we won't get off IC engines because it wasn't viable (for car companies). They have a stranglehold on regulators and lawmakers in almost every country. Their sunk costs and supply chain and derivatives are all set up to continue with petroleum (whom the producers are in similar situations, therefore in agreement with this arrangement). Do you not remember what happened with Tesla and the car-dealerships?

The economic argument was: we're staying with IC, electric cars "aren't viable." Which means the entire global economy (yuge scale) is dependent on the IC / Petrol cartel, everyone with any amount of money is happy with the arrangment. If you want to go up against us, with no sponsorship from a big money distributor (they like petrol) then good luck!

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#128

Post by evanlivingston »

solatic wrote: post #38
dalbasal wrote: post #18

One feature of the transport market (from a mile high view) is that demand is almost infinite. If you can get 40kms in 45 minutes, then you can live within 40 miles of work and commute in that time. If you could go 400kms, then that becomes your commuting radius. We've seen people spread this way as earlier mechanized transport was invented. IE, average commute times didn't go down because of faster transport, distan…

> If I could get to hong kong in 15 minutes, I might go there this afternoon for some dumplings. And that's a good thing, because it increases the amount of demand available to businesses. The more potential customers you have, the more product you can make to sell to that market, and the more product you can make, the better your economies of scale. The large population of New York is what allows it to offer so many…

You're rubric for that which is good needs to be expanded beyond just "more money for businesses".

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#129

Post by mamon »

puranjay wrote: post #115
mcguire wrote: post #24

" Musk’s visions are valuable because they show that even people far outside the field of urban planning can be frustrated with the world others have built for us. They, too, should have a say. " That is a good point. Taking Musk and the HyperLoop seriously is a mistake---unless something has changed that hasn't percolate down to me, it has major problems and probably wouldn't solve the problem it purports to solve i…

The problem with not taking Musk seriously is that his track records shows you can, indeed, take him seriously. His company made a rocket capable of re-entry ffs

As someone else in this thread noticed: so far all Musk did was incremental improvements to existing technologies (electric cars, autopilot, space rockets). He has no track of record of actually creating a new technology.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#130

Post by mcguire »

puranjay wrote: post #115
mcguire wrote: post #24

" Musk’s visions are valuable because they show that even people far outside the field of urban planning can be frustrated with the world others have built for us. They, too, should have a say. " That is a good point. Taking Musk and the HyperLoop seriously is a mistake---unless something has changed that hasn't percolate down to me, it has major problems and probably wouldn't solve the problem it purports to solve i…

The problem with not taking Musk seriously is that his track records shows you can, indeed, take him seriously. His company made a rocket capable of re-entry ffs

A good point.

On the other hand, NASA did make a man-rated reusable spacecraft, back in the '70s, while dealing with a huge pile of political horseshit. (This is sort of a Fred Astaire/Ginger Rogers moment.)

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