Hypnotized by Hyperloop • Hacker News Board

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#41

Post by DannyBee » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 4:10 PM UTC

I feel like one could have written this article back in the days of Tesla and Edison. The problem Geoff bemoans - that it's not good city planning, may even be true. That is rarely the only reason why things happen or not happen though, and that's been true as long as people have had cities.

While wanting "whatever is really the best, boring or not, gets done" is a great ideal, it's simply unrealistic for how the world works, and as any city planner who plans on a 50 year timeline will tell you - that isn't going to change without more fundamental changes in what drives people.

Instead, yes, PR, coolness/desire, and will play a significant part in what actually ends up being done. Saying we'd be better off if that wasn't true is not a particularly interesting insight. The more interesting insight would be giving some mechanism for convincing people to achieve that. Because this article doesnt' do anything real on that front.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#42

Post by kome » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 4:11 PM UTC

Hyperloop is such a bad idea on so many levels. Mass transportation is the future: trains, suburban trains and metros. Not cars or "mini metros for cars".

Super fast trains are already there. Europe lives in the future compared to the USA.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#43

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 4:13 PM UTC

ardit33 wrote: post #27

dalbasal wrote: post #18

One feature of the transport market (from a mile high view) is that demand is almost infinite. If you can get 40kms in 45 minutes, then you can live within 40 miles of work and commute in that time. If you could go 400kms, then that becomes your commuting radius. We've seen people spread this way as earlier mechanized transport was invented. IE, average commute times didn't go down because of faster transport, distan…

Yes, but it creates huge economic positive impacts 1. You can live in a less expensive area, (i.e. miles away), and work in a major center. This makes both possible of talent being able to live cheaper, and be able to work where they want (less geographical restrictions), which unlocks greater efficiency of the work place. 2. The alternative? Most people living with few tens of miles of workplaces, prices of living r…

[deleted]

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#44

Post by mcguire » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 4:14 PM UTC

solatic wrote: post #38

dalbasal wrote: post #18

One feature of the transport market (from a mile high view) is that demand is almost infinite. If you can get 40kms in 45 minutes, then you can live within 40 miles of work and commute in that time. If you could go 400kms, then that becomes your commuting radius. We've seen people spread this way as earlier mechanized transport was invented. IE, average commute times didn't go down because of faster transport, distan…

> If I could get to hong kong in 15 minutes, I might go there this afternoon for some dumplings. And that's a good thing, because it increases the amount of demand available to businesses. The more potential customers you have, the more product you can make to sell to that market, and the more product you can make, the better your economies of scale. The large population of New York is what allows it to offer so many…

Yes, but the point was that if you could get to Hong Kong in 15 minutes for dumplings, you couldn't get to Hong Kong in 15 minutes because everyone else was going there, too.

And some of us don't live in New York because of the friction involved.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#45

Post by protomyth » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 4:14 PM UTC

kfk wrote: post #2

Difficult topic. You can make this argument on any new transformative tech. You could have made the same arguments about smartphones 10 years ago. On the other hand, I am still not clear how a pod that can carry max 12 people can compete with trains that can carry hundreds.

If we take two lines (one rail and one hyperloop) and compare the number of people that can be transported in an hour, then we can judge if multiple 12 person pods can transport more/less than trains over the same period. I suspect that pods might have a pretty good shot at winning.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#46

Post by tehabe » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 4:14 PM UTC

When I look at what Elon Musk has done in recent years is, that he improved existing technologies.

Imagine that Musk would build a autonomous tram or light rail system with an induction contact rail instead of an overhead line.

Most of the technology exist, it just need to be combined into one train.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#47

Post by pdabbadabba » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 4:15 PM UTC

usaphp wrote: post #36

aaron-lebo wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's writing this to people like you. As far as I was able to read, not a single mention that Musk has been able to take two or three other previously considered impossible tasks and bring them to completion. Call me a fanboy if you will, but at least my fanboyism is evidence-based. It's not personal. Musk is not anyone's personal juvenile delinquent (cable TV edit). Why do you care so much whether a single billionai…

> why build inefficient systems like Hyperloops and car sleds when we have tech that works at scale already You mean like why build inefficient electric cars when we had a proved combustion engine that worked at scale before?

>> why build inefficient systems like Hyperloops and car sleds when we have tech that works at scale already

> why build inefficient electric cars when we had a proved combustion engine that worked at scale before?

The difference between these questions is precisely that the latter appears to have a good answer. What's the answer to the former?

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#48

Post by aaron-lebo » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 4:16 PM UTC

annon wrote: post #40

alexandros wrote: post #6

Couldn't finish this. It started off badly by calling the hyperloop "vacuum-powered". First, it's not even vacuum sealed (just low air pressure), and second, how can something even be powered by the vacuum? Are we just throwing terms around for effect here? Then, the author continues with more material errors. The hyperloop/tunnel combo apparently "requires a hard reboot" of the modern city. No it does not. The whole…

> The fact that we've lost faith in humanity's ability to improve things by taking on large, ambitious projects, even if some, even if most, will fail, saddens me every day. It doesn't prevent me from trying to make the world a better place though, and I hope nobody else was discouraged by low-quality, knee-jerk thinking like this, either. Exactly! The author pick and chose grand ideas from the past that didn’t work.…

Those were both networks built off of scaling existing technologies (the highway is as old as people, and the railway was ~40 years old at that point).

It's a very different thing than entirely new tech outcompeting old and outscaling it, which is what Musk is attempting.

The question is why don't we have a national high speed rail network and if that hasn't or can't work, what's Hyperloop and Boring gonna do better?

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#49

Post by dalbasal » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 4:16 PM UTC

ardit33 wrote: post #27

dalbasal wrote: post #18

One feature of the transport market (from a mile high view) is that demand is almost infinite. If you can get 40kms in 45 minutes, then you can live within 40 miles of work and commute in that time. If you could go 400kms, then that becomes your commuting radius. We've seen people spread this way as earlier mechanized transport was invented. IE, average commute times didn't go down because of faster transport, distan…

Yes, but it creates huge economic positive impacts 1. You can live in a less expensive area, (i.e. miles away), and work in a major center. This makes both possible of talent being able to live cheaper, and be able to work where they want (less geographical restrictions), which unlocks greater efficiency of the work place. 2. The alternative? Most people living with few tens of miles of workplaces, prices of living r…

..in theory. In practice, SF, can probably grow it's commuting catchment area (supply) by quite a lot before housing prices start to give. I would predict that you'd just end up with a bigger SF.

Re: Hypnotized by Hyperloop

#50

Post by sixQuarks » Sun, Jul 30, 2017, 4:17 PM UTC

njarboe wrote: post #13

Such a negative, do-nothing article. "taking every billionaire’s quirky visions at face value". Elon Musk is a bit different than every billionaire. Re-usable orbital class boosters and the Model S is what gives Elon the street cred others don't have. "so-called Boring Company" WTF? The New Yorker was always a purveyor of a certain type of elitism, but since the Trump election they have really upped the intensity. No…

I was thinking the same thing. Armchair critic that has nothing better to do than criticize people who are actually trying to innovate and improve society.