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Artificial Intelligence Is Stuck

nytimes.com

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Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Stuck

#91

Post by pdimitar »

unityByFreedom wrote: post #77
pdimitar wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are many forthcoming breakthroughs... We just need to build... Not sure how you don't see the irony. This has probably been said thousands of times for many scientific areas throughout history. Example: There are forthcoming breakthroughs in humanity being an interstellar civilization. We just need to build faster-than-light engines and terraforming equipment. Nothing major, right?

> There are forthcoming breakthroughs in humanity being an interstellar civilization. We just need to build faster-than-light engines and terraforming equipment. Nothing major, right? Building a dataset is easy and not something you would compare to faster-than-light engines. Believe it or not, some major breakthroughs are held back by simple lack of funding, and lack of awareness. To make a dataset you need to pay r…

Your reply, while overall correct, still underestimates the problem of "how do we invent AI?". Data-sets shouldn't be "tuned" or "refined" (tems I see in practically every "AI" article); if they need to be remade then the consumer is not only not AI -- it's not even a clever NN implementation.

Forgive my cynicism if you can, but in my eyes you guys just support what might make you money one day (or already does) and thus aren't objective. You're like the parents that are completely blind to their child's defects due to paternal / maternal hormones.

There's no AI on this planet. There are not even beginnings of an AI. Deep learning is practically a statistically biased classification algorithm and not much else.

To me the term AI is being abused. I want AI to exist, but I am seeing every indication that the area is falling victim to capitalistic interests and this won't change anytime soon.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Stuck

#92

Post by tormeh »

nl wrote: post #35
scotty79 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://youtu.be/WanGt1G6ScA Not sure what to think about it.

https://youtu.be/WanGt1G6ScA?t=92 (from that video, at a timepoint which shows a young a baby crawling over a glass surface with a drop beneath it, with no sign of discomfort). I'd say this proves the point completely. It shows that babies aren't scared of heights, and they don't acquire the fear from experience. Instead it seems likely it is that they either develop a mental model of how the world works, or they lea…

It comes with age, at least. Babies are afraid of some kinds of heights, but not others. Too bad that I don't remember what kinds they fear.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Stuck

#93

Post by rdlecler1 »

The problem we've always had with AI was that most people were trying to engineer it rather than reverse engineer it. Every time there would be a major advance the computational neuroscientists would say: "we knew that, you should have come talked to us 15 years ago." There's some work out there on this, but it's more basic research on how to use developmental and genetic and evolutionary algorithms to grow neural networks. Most AI researchers try to skip this step but it's what's holding back progress.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Stuck

#94

Post by giardini »

No need to involve other nations: the US military is moving ahead on its own:

http://www.insidesources.com/nsa-chief-without-ai-cyber-is-a...

From the 2016 article:

"Artificial intelligence will play a big role in the future of U.S. strategy in cyberspace, according to National Security Agency Director Adm. Michael Rogers, who told Congress Tuesday that relying primarily on human intelligence 'is a losing strategy.'”

The lineage of military intelligence systems using AI is (necessarily, historically) heavily biased toward language-based AGI ("old AI") rather than neural networks. The NN are there of course, but IMO the impressive work is in the AGI.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Stuck

#95

Post by sfifs »

observation wrote: post #34
backpropaganda wrote: post #12

An agent can be intelligent without it learning how to read human language. Look around, most organisms in our world communicate using extremely simple binary language or don't communicate verbally at all. Yet, they are intelligent enough to do very complicated tasks which current robots fail to do. Intelligence is an easier problem than language, and thus should be solved before language. What a sigh of relief to re…

> Look around, most organisms in our world communicate using extremely simple binary language or don't communicate verbally at all. Yes. > Yet, they are intelligent enough to do very complicated tasks which current robots fail to do. True. > Intelligence is an easier problem than language, and thus should be solved before language. Wrong. This is the classic mistake everybody makes, including people in Computer Scien…

Interesting that highly successful AI like AlphaGo essentially trained itself the evolutionary way by playing against itself.

I wonder if simulations are the right way to efficiently train artificial intelligences

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Stuck

#96

Post by njarboe »

elmar wrote: post #60
observation wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Look around, most organisms in our world communicate using extremely simple binary language or don't communicate verbally at all. Yes. > Yet, they are intelligent enough to do very complicated tasks which current robots fail to do. True. > Intelligence is an easier problem than language, and thus should be solved before language. Wrong. This is the classic mistake everybody makes, including people in Computer Scien…

well we have the advantage of only copying nature that already works the hardest part is already done the Zero to One. Nost of human technology today is based on replicating nature.

"Based on replicating nature"? Fiber optic cable? Microchips? Mass spectrometers? Atomic weapons? Even humans first technology, sharp stone tools, isn't really a replication of nature. Maybe some examples would help me understand what you mean.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Stuck

#97

Post by wwarner »

It's great to read someone challenging the hype, but this analysis is a bit too negative. I'd point out that AlphaGo did something a little bit like the author's toddler learning to squeeze through the back of her chair. AG learned its new moves by playing against itself. I still wonder how they avoided over-fitting here. Imagine two twins who loved to play and learn about go, and played constantly against one another, and in the process discover new plays they both believe to be unbeatable. You'd expect some of their new moves to be weak when actually tested against other players. But AG's new moves really were strong.

Admittedly, games with simple scores are the only scenarios where this really kicks in. But then again, the stock market could fit this model.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Stuck

#98

Post by webaba »

skgoa wrote: post #76
homarp wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The author was working at an AI start-up company, Geometric Intelligence (acquired by Uber)

Working at a startup does not make you an expert. Especially when your opinion goes against what pretty much everyone else in the field thinks.

"Especially when your opinion goes against what pretty much everyone else in the field thinks" -> Most Deep learning people are consumers or hardware manufacturers, very few researchers in the field, and most people that have deep knowledge of it would agree with this guy.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Stuck

#99

Post by arstin »

rwnspace wrote: post #90
ethbro wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The person you're largely agreeing with is Rodney Brooks (formerly of MIT CSAIL, http://people.csail.mit.edu/brooks/publications.html ). And to sum it up a bit, the hypothesis is that humanlike AI is as much a product of the experience and reality of being physically (and limitedly!) human as it is any abstract algorithm. You may also know him from a small company called iRobot (aka Roomba).

Thank you very much for the link, and nice summary. This looks very interesting, I'm grateful: my learning habits mean I'm liable to playing with second-hand scraps of ideas, and missing out on sources.

I think his article Intelligence Without Representation is particularly worth reading at least once.

http://people.csail.mit.edu/brooks/papers/representation.pdf

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Stuck

#100

Post by webaba »

randcraw wrote: post #64
webaba wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe he has much more insight than most AI researchers/engineers. What's going on in AI right know looks exactly like what happened in the 1960s, sucking all the resources into something (i.e Deep Learning) without looking at the big picture, without looking at epistemological questions, and not training new grads on solid AI foundations anymore like probability theory and logic. Not asking the right questions i…

Yes, but the next AI Winter will be far less bleak and job-free as that of the 80's, IMO. The hayday of DL-based AI is likely to continue for 10+ Years, as we refine the methods and see how far word2vec and improved compositionality of the many existing DL methods takes us. AI is likely to improve rapidly for another decade, IMHO. But I agree that DL AI, if not augmented substantially, will stop well short of AGI and…

Indeed, DL-based AI is likely to continuue - rightfully so - for non-safety critical domains (translation, games, ...) It's crazy that few people notice that real world applications with safety issues (where 99.9% accuracy is a joke) - ex: self driving vehicles - require much more that what DL has to offer. The AI community's sloppiness when it comes to safety and robustness engineering will lead to the some serious problems (when it comes to real-world industrial applications). But yeah there will still be jobs for people playing around.
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