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Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

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Re: Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

#31

Post by toisanji »

jph00 wrote: post #22
toisanji wrote: post #9

it sounds like people who don't work with machine learning asked that question. People who do work with machine learning should see the difference. Besides what is mentioned in the blog post, OpenAI is a research effort for moving start of the art, while fast.ai is for teaching students in a non math heavy way.

We also do research and try to move the state of the art. Although we share our results and methods largely through courses rather than academic papers. Our plan is to teach more material each year, in less time, with less prerequisites, by both curating the best practice techniques and adding our own. So far we've spent much more time on education than research since that's the highest leverage activity right now (h…

Didn't realize you are doing research as well. I love what you have done with the courses and look forward to seeing how the linear algebra computational course does. anyway I could contact you to ask you more questions? My email is in my profile

Re: Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

#33

Post by jacquesm »

stale2002 wrote: post #27
jacquesm wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> when we're (say) half way there, the amount of societal upheaval will be enormous. I had a conversation with a C level exec of a large company last week around this theme. My suggestion that limited AI such as self driving cars has the potential to create a vast number of extremely frustrated individuals making a second round of 'Sabotage' and Luddites a definite possibility was waved away as if those people don't…

If self driving cars/trucks become a thing, and cause millions of people to be unemployed, there is ALSO a correspondingly massive economy increase. IE, the world is now massively richer because of all this awesome new technology. Yes, there could be some short term disruption, but honestly I think things will end up fine, just because of the massive amount of extra money and wealth that the world will have that coul…

Chances are that the increased riches of the world will not be divided in such a way that those who are now earning a living wage with their driving license will profit from that.

Re: Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

#34

Post by benjaminl »

jph00 wrote: post #10
jorblumesea wrote: post #4

> Cracking AGI is a very long-term goal. Is this fair to say? I feel like advancements in the field happened far quicker than anyone expected, and every few years we are reevaluating timelines. Especially given the research happening in tandem that will almost certainly speed up AGI, like graphene, quantum computing, advanced GPU design... If you asked someone 10 years ago about the possibilities of ML/Deep learning…

We don't make specific time predictions because it's just not possible. But we can make relative predictions. However long it takes to get to AGI, when we're (say) half way there, the amount of societal upheaval will be enormous. If we can't navigate that successfully, we'll never get to see AGI...

> However long it takes to get to AGI, when we're (say) half way there, the amount of societal upheaval will be enormous.

Could you unpack this a bit more?

Are you referring to the disruption in jobs caused by the effectiveness of narrow AI when we reach that point?

Re: Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

#35

Post by RodericDay »

RodericDay wrote: post #30
_qbjt wrote: post #28

> It is hard for me to empathize with Musk’s fixation on evil super-intelligent AGI killer robots in a very distant future. I would argue this person has no business working with AI with this sort of myopic thinking. If you think "fake news" is a problem now, just wait until decentralized AI networks are able to tweet, publish articles and affect public discourse in a way that is indistinguishable from human influenc…

You're just awed by Musk and can't see how ridiculous what he's saying really is. François Chollet nailed it with the following comparison, mocking LHC alarmists: > It's not that turning on the LHC will create a black hole that will swallow the Earth. But it could! Albeit no physicist thought so. https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/891033876415397888

In fact, Chollet links a whole series of essays worth reading:

1) The Myth of a Superhuman AI (https://www.wired.com/2017/04/the-myth-of-a-superhuman-ai/)

2) The Terminator Is Not Coming. (https://www.recode.net/2015/3/2/11559576/the-terminator-is-n...)

3) idlewords : Superintelligence - The Idea That Eats Smart People (http://idlewords.com/talks/superintelligence.htm)

The frustrating thing is that people with insane amounts of resources and disposable income get swallowed up by these Basilisk-ian non-concerns, while very real pressing issues like Police Brutality, Wealth Inequality, Lack of HealthCare, etc. are deemed too boring for enthusiastic action.

Re: Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

#36

Post by jph00 »

_qbjt wrote: post #28

> It is hard for me to empathize with Musk’s fixation on evil super-intelligent AGI killer robots in a very distant future. I would argue this person has no business working with AI with this sort of myopic thinking. If you think "fake news" is a problem now, just wait until decentralized AI networks are able to tweet, publish articles and affect public discourse in a way that is indistinguishable from human influenc…

Oh please.

The issue isn't what the end result could look like, but whether we'll actually get there if basic societal needs aren't met first. Prioritize things which are needed now and in the near future.

Re: Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

#38

Post by jph00 »

benjaminl wrote: post #34
jph00 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't make specific time predictions because it's just not possible. But we can make relative predictions. However long it takes to get to AGI, when we're (say) half way there, the amount of societal upheaval will be enormous. If we can't navigate that successfully, we'll never get to see AGI...

> However long it takes to get to AGI, when we're (say) half way there, the amount of societal upheaval will be enormous. Could you unpack this a bit more? Are you referring to the disruption in jobs caused by the effectiveness of narrow AI when we reach that point?

Yes exactly. Fewer people can add economic value at that point, and unless there is a negative income tax or basic guaranteed income, inequality spirals out of control, leading to even more of the anger-driven policy we're starting to see today.

Re: Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

#39

Post by jorgemf »

Yuioup wrote: post #11

Ok, so I consider myself an above-average programmer, capable of building a standard database driven web applications using the latest du-jour techniques. I suck at Math - I mean I _really_ suck at Math. I can visualize algorithms and data structures and have no problem whipping up programs. I have written a lot of code in my lifetime and have helmed a lot of successful projects as my capacity as lead programmer or a…

You can use a framework, copy some examples and "create" your own AI. You don't need maths for it, just follow some steps from the examples. But you only be able to copy other things, if you want to go one step ahead and use the latest research you need to understand some math and get some general knowledge of the machine learning algorithms you are using. To create something new, you definitely need maths. I don't see anyone creating a new algorithms without knowledge of algebra and other topics.

Re: Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

#40

Post by _qbjt »

jph00 wrote: post #36
_qbjt wrote: post #28

> It is hard for me to empathize with Musk’s fixation on evil super-intelligent AGI killer robots in a very distant future. I would argue this person has no business working with AI with this sort of myopic thinking. If you think "fake news" is a problem now, just wait until decentralized AI networks are able to tweet, publish articles and affect public discourse in a way that is indistinguishable from human influenc…

Oh please. The issue isn't what the end result could look like, but whether we'll actually get there if basic societal needs aren't met first. Prioritize things which are needed now and in the near future.

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