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Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

fast.ai

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Re: Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

#11

Post by Yuioup »

Ok, so I consider myself an above-average programmer, capable of building a standard database driven web applications using the latest du-jour techniques.

I suck at Math - I mean I _really_ suck at Math. I can visualize algorithms and data structures and have no problem whipping up programs. I have written a lot of code in my lifetime and have helmed a lot of successful projects as my capacity as lead programmer or architect.

But I will never be a programmer that writes code that uses Math, like for games, simulation, 3d graphics, operating systems, drivers, autopilots, etc...

So, can a Math idiot like me get into A.I. by going to your site?

Re: Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

#14

Post by jacquesm »

Yuioup wrote: post #11

Ok, so I consider myself an above-average programmer, capable of building a standard database driven web applications using the latest du-jour techniques. I suck at Math - I mean I _really_ suck at Math. I can visualize algorithms and data structures and have no problem whipping up programs. I have written a lot of code in my lifetime and have helmed a lot of successful projects as my capacity as lead programmer or a…

Yes.

And better still: you will understand the math, they use simple spreadsheets for the illustration of the basic principles.

Re: Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

#15

Post by jph00 »

phreeza wrote: post #8
rrherr wrote: post #3

Best paragraph: "Cracking AGI is a very long-term goal. The most relevant field of research is considered by many to be reinforcement learning: the study of teaching computers how to beat Atari. Formally, reinforcement learning is the study of problems that require sequences of actions that result in a reward/loss, and not knowing how much each action contributes to the outcome. Hundreds of the world’s brightest mind…

Calling it an "Atari problem" sounds quite disparaging and misses the point. It's like calling a convolutional network doing the ImageNet task a "Doggy-detection" problem. That may be the original development problem, but the final product still helps detect cancer in CT scan images... Same goes for advances in reinforcement learning made on atari games.

Perhaps, but the jury is still very much out. The vast majority of RL applications are game playing. Very few examples of valuable applications to society or the economy.

There's also plenty of evidence already that RL isn't really the right way to tackle the credit problem. E.g random search is only 10x slower.

Re: Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

#17

Post by jph00 »

grahac wrote: post #12

Any timeline for when Part 2 is coming out? I checked your site and the URL went to a 404. Loved Part 1 (it enabled me to do an ML project I had been thinking about for over a year) and looking forward to part two! Please keep it going!

Planning to release it on Sunday night :)

Re: Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

#18

Post by jacquesm »

jph00 wrote: post #10
jorblumesea wrote: post #4

> Cracking AGI is a very long-term goal. Is this fair to say? I feel like advancements in the field happened far quicker than anyone expected, and every few years we are reevaluating timelines. Especially given the research happening in tandem that will almost certainly speed up AGI, like graphene, quantum computing, advanced GPU design... If you asked someone 10 years ago about the possibilities of ML/Deep learning…

We don't make specific time predictions because it's just not possible. But we can make relative predictions. However long it takes to get to AGI, when we're (say) half way there, the amount of societal upheaval will be enormous. If we can't navigate that successfully, we'll never get to see AGI...

> when we're (say) half way there, the amount of societal upheaval will be enormous.

I had a conversation with a C level exec of a large company last week around this theme. My suggestion that limited AI such as self driving cars has the potential to create a vast number of extremely frustrated individuals making a second round of 'Sabotage' and Luddites a definite possibility was waved away as if those people don't matter and don't have any power.

I really wonder how far you'd have to be removed from the life of a truck or cab driver not to be able to empathize with them and to realize that if you take away some of the last low education jobs that allow you to keep your hands clean that there will be some kind of backlash.

AGI will expand that feeling to all of us.

Re: Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

#19

Post by habitue »

Personally I think it's absolutely important for some people to be working on AGI and other to be working on practical applications. Trying to push the boundaries teaches you a lot about what tools you still need. Researching narrow applications hones our experience with the techniques we already understand well and gives us new tools

Re: Thoughts on OpenAI, reinforcement learning, and killer robots

#20

Post by gone35 »

I support research funding at all levels, and have nothing against mostly theoretical research, but is it really the best use of resources to throw $1 billion at reinforcement learning without any similar investments into addressing mass unemployment and wealth inequality (both of which are well-documented to cause political instability), how existing gender and racial biases are being encoded in our algorithms, and on how to best get this technology into the hands of people working on high impact areas like medicine and agriculture around the world?

Not quite my field, but perhaps such currently intractable, high-impact societal and medical problems do require theoretical breakthroughs after all... I guess I'm just concerned Rachel that --to put it in reinforcement learning terms-- we need both exploration and exploitation.

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