Or, What We Think We Do Right Before We Waterboard a Brown Person
Did you read the book?
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (1999)
21–28 of 28 posts
Re: Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (1999)
#22How does this compare to the authors newer book "Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis" (2015) (which unlike the linked book is available at my local library)
They are very different. SAT is a workbook like structure meant to be used as a on the job reference as well.
I think it's generally lacking in mathematical rigor and doesn't really do that good of a job building models. It simply gives the user some entry level tools to make their analysis more structured.
Re: Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (1999)
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
What was the (name of) the book you gave?
The Mature Optimization Handbook
Well worth the read. Check it out at http://carlos.bueno.org/optimization/
Re: Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (1999)
#24Re: Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (1999)
#25>An event for which the timing is unpredictable may "at this time" have only a 5-percent probability of occurring during the coming month, but a 60-percent probability if the time frame is extended to one year (5 percent per month for 12 months). If the time frame were extended to two years, would the probability be 120%? The correct probability is: 1 - (1-.05)^12 ~= 0.46 Hard to credit a text about cognitive biases…
Doesn't this depend on whether the event can recur?
Your math correctly assess the odds of a one time event, as one minus the odds of the event never occurring. But if 5%/month is an expected frequency of a recurring event, then after 24 months we'd expect 1.2 occurrences. Yeah?
edit: Their language is awfully sloppy, though. It's not a 60% chance in the next 12 months, it's .6 expected occurrences.
Re: Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (1999)
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
You may have knowledge that the probability falls to zero after that. This is messy intelligence not math. Assuming this is a math book is a cognitive bias you are bringing into the reading.
The quoted text specifically refers to this being the result of a 5% monthly chance recurring over 12-months, i.e. it was a pretty unambiguous appeal to mathematics. Whether or not it is reasonable to compound such a messy probability is a whole other question, but the fact the training material could not do so correctly (on apparently its own terms) does not speak with great confidence for the practitioners trained…
> The quoted text specifically refers to this being the result of a 5% monthly chance recurring over 12-months, i.e. it was a pretty unambiguous appeal to mathematics.
No it isn't. If I have some information about events that will occur over the next few months, my estimations will be different based on that knowledge, eg I know there is going to be an election in some neighboring country that will involve violence, so I think that the probability of being unable to ship overland through that country is low now, but high in a few months.
Re: Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (1999)
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
The quoted text specifically refers to this being the result of a 5% monthly chance recurring over 12-months, i.e. it was a pretty unambiguous appeal to mathematics. Whether or not it is reasonable to compound such a messy probability is a whole other question, but the fact the training material could not do so correctly (on apparently its own terms) does not speak with great confidence for the practitioners trained…
> The quoted text specifically refers to this being the result of a 5% monthly chance recurring over 12-months, i.e. it was a pretty unambiguous appeal to mathematics. No it isn't. If I have some information about events that will occur over the next few months, my estimations will be different based on that knowledge, eg I know there is going to be an election in some neighboring country that will involve violence,…
Have you read the quote?
"5 percent per month for 12 months"
I don't know how to reconcile this with your interpretation.
Re: Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (1999)
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The quoted text specifically refers to this being the result of a 5% monthly chance recurring over 12-months, i.e. it was a pretty unambiguous appeal to mathematics. No it isn't. If I have some information about events that will occur over the next few months, my estimations will be different based on that knowledge, eg I know there is going to be an election in some neighboring country that will involve violence,…
Have you read the quote? "5 percent per month for 12 months" I don't know how to reconcile this with your interpretation.
My bad, I thought that was added by the parent.