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India will ban driverless cars in order to protect jobs

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Re: India will ban driverless cars in order to protect jobs

#51

Post by jimmywanger »

fnl wrote: post #44
jlebar wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because automated weaving makes clothes a lot cheaper. Put another way, when workers become more efficient -- one factory worker able to control many weaving machines, or a relatively small group of programmers able to control many cars -- people's standard of living increases. Maybe you're willing to pay more for clothes, or transportation, or any one thing. But paying more for all of the things that have gotten che…

Even more radically, you might as well just give everybody a universal basic income instead of heading back for a pre-industrialized way of life (though the Amish people seem to like it?!).

If you give people a universal basic income, you need to both increase taxes a lot and completely restrict immigration - a basic income in the US is incredibly luxurious for people who live in sub-saharan Africa. Or else the universal basic income is going to be too low in first world countries to make a difference.

Re: India will ban driverless cars in order to protect jobs

#53

Post by perfectstorm »

justboxing wrote: post #6

Forget the part about protecting jobs, how confident will the driverless cars companies be even otherwise, sending their cars out into the chaotic traffic in India, where you routinely share the road with bicycles, motorcycles, scooters, rickshaws, handcarts, buses, lorries (trucks), cows and the occasional sheep and donkeys? Related video => [2006] India Driving https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjrEQaG5jPM

I remember reading about an Indian startup making autonomous vehicles. I believe they were bought out by TATA or funded by some big company. This was couple years back.

Edit: https://www.google.com/amp/s/thenextweb.com/cars/2017/06/12/...

Re: India will ban driverless cars in order to protect jobs

#55

Post by bsder »

danenania wrote: post #24
bsder wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, so letting an economy go into free-fall recession is good for people? Once self-driving cars hit, the switch will be immediate and massive . I would predict 10% to 90% penetration in probably less than 12 months--the limitation will simply be building the cars fast enough. That's a lot of people suddenly with no income. Protecting people against that disruption for 50 years? Probably a bad idea. Protecting people…

"Once self-driving cars hit, the switch will be immediate and massive. I would predict 10% to 90% penetration in probably less than 12 months--the limitation will simply be building the cars fast enough. That's a lot of people suddenly with no income." It will probably take 12 months just to form the exploratory committee that will form the actual committee that will even begin to consider legalizing fully driverless…

> It will happen, but it's definitely not going to be "immediate".

Normally, you would be correct. However, there will be so much at stake that there will be huge amounts of money greasing the skids on any required legislation.

Real Level 3 Autonomy will displace 75% of truckers almost immediately--that's 1.5 million jobs lost. You will have one or two drivers in the front truck and a half-dozen trucks running autonomously but slaved to the front truck. WalMart will almost certainly lead the charge.

Level 4 autonomy will allow the insurance companies to jack insurance rates on normal drivers through the roof. You will get a massive insurance discount if you never touch the wheel (removes human driver error--total monitoring so always other driver's fault).

With that much money at stake, the obstacles will melt like ice in the summertime. See: Fracking in Pennsylvania for an example of how fast legislation can move with enough money behind it.

Re: India will ban driverless cars in order to protect jobs

#56

Post by taneq »

KekDemaga wrote: post #48
taneq wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it's busywork, and it's wasting all those peoples' time. It's strictly inferior to letting a few workers use machinery to do the job, while paying the rest of the workers to sit around idle, because when using machinery you can rapidly increase output if required and the idle workers have the option to find something more useful to do.

Where do I sign up to be one of the idle workers?

Give it 10-20 years and you won't need to sign up, you'll just receive your UBI into your bank account every week. Well, that or the country you live in will have to let 30-40% of its people starve because there's nothing they can do better than a machine.

Remember, those idle workers aren't being paid a nice pay packet. They'll be on subsistence wages only. You'll still want to work a job if you want nice things.

Re: India will ban driverless cars in order to protect jobs

#57

Post by KekDemaga »

taneq wrote: post #56
KekDemaga wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do I sign up to be one of the idle workers?

Give it 10-20 years and you won't need to sign up, you'll just receive your UBI into your bank account every week. Well, that or the country you live in will have to let 30-40% of its people starve because there's nothing they can do better than a machine. Remember, those idle workers aren't being paid a nice pay packet. They'll be on subsistence wages only. You'll still want to work a job if you want nice things.

If I'm one of those skilled workers who can do something better than a machine it seems the rational course of action is to move to one of the places where they let people starve and keep more of the fruits of my labor.

Re: India will ban driverless cars in order to protect jobs

#58

Post by danenania »

bsder wrote: post #55
danenania wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Once self-driving cars hit, the switch will be immediate and massive. I would predict 10% to 90% penetration in probably less than 12 months--the limitation will simply be building the cars fast enough. That's a lot of people suddenly with no income." It will probably take 12 months just to form the exploratory committee that will form the actual committee that will even begin to consider legalizing fully driverless…

> It will happen, but it's definitely not going to be "immediate". Normally, you would be correct. However, there will be so much at stake that there will be huge amounts of money greasing the skids on any required legislation. Real Level 3 Autonomy will displace 75% of truckers almost immediately--that's 1.5 million jobs lost. You will have one or two drivers in the front truck and a half-dozen trucks running autono…

Fracking, for all its controversy, does not outright kill random people when something goes wrong. Whenever there's a problem, it's going to be front page news, and people (old people in particular) are going to call their political representatives and complain. This is going to become a massive political football. There's no way it gets introduced smoothly and quickly--that's just a futurist daydream.

Re: India will ban driverless cars in order to protect jobs

#59

Post by tanilama »

fnl wrote: post #44
jlebar wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because automated weaving makes clothes a lot cheaper. Put another way, when workers become more efficient -- one factory worker able to control many weaving machines, or a relatively small group of programmers able to control many cars -- people's standard of living increases. Maybe you're willing to pay more for clothes, or transportation, or any one thing. But paying more for all of the things that have gotten che…

Even more radically, you might as well just give everybody a universal basic income instead of heading back for a pre-industrialized way of life (though the Amish people seem to like it?!).

UBI seems unlikely now, maybe very low level like 500 dollars per month, but definitely not going to support a comfortable living, that is only fantasy.

Re: India will ban driverless cars in order to protect jobs

#60

Post by robotjosh »

jlebar wrote: post #15
anoother wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Serious question -- why not? What makes this a bad idea?

Because automated weaving makes clothes a lot cheaper. Put another way, when workers become more efficient -- one factory worker able to control many weaving machines, or a relatively small group of programmers able to control many cars -- people's standard of living increases. Maybe you're willing to pay more for clothes, or transportation, or any one thing. But paying more for all of the things that have gotten che…

If things have gotten cheaper, why does everything in a 1917 sears catalog, adjusted for inflation, look so inexpensive? Solid metal tools used to cost less than the modern walmart plastic thing.
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