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The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

tomtunguz.com

361–370 of 417 posts

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many do. The cost to society is enormous. If housing and labor markets were entirely elastic, and those are the only two factors your people need to consider, then "go away" could be a reasonable government policy. But people are more than their income and their cost of living. Consider a recovering opioid addict making minimum wage. Medicaid for health care. They are recovering, not relapsed, because of great suppor…

Moving obviously doesn't work in all cases. But urbanizing doesn't permanently remove the problem, it delays it. Ultimately any plot of land has a maximum carrying capacity. If some of these issues are not solved, what's to say that a decade after we urbanize, we won't be right back here with this same problem? Personally, I have definitely noticed many people who have convinced themselves they have to stay despite t…

You claim demand to live in the Bay Area exceeds housing technology carrying capacity. Do you have any evidence for this?

No city on Earth is full. (Indeed, estimates of human population growth show planetary population stabilizing at less than one tenth our global carrying capacity, so this is not surprising.) It would be extraordinary for the Bay Area to be the first, and so calls for extraordinary evidence.

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#362
post #8

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The one that confuses me is AB 71. Aren't 2nd and 3rd homes basically rental stock? Owned by individuals and not the Irving Company if you care about that.

A house in Tahoe you use 3 weeks a year is not really rental stock, and it's not clear what benefit the public gets from your 2nd home that would justify a tax subsidy

Sure, but in silicon valley one thing to do with your smalltime IPO winnings is buy a house and rent out your old one to someone who has yet to hit paydirt. Maybe part of what pushes prices up, but I like to think my renters are getting a better deal than they would from old-man Irvine. (The incentives to play this game are razor-thin, mostly down to tax advantages.)

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#363
post #233

Both top-level comments have mentioned housing prices. I grew up in the Bay Area and want to stay here and I am trying to work to change policy to help build more housing. Unfortunately due to law, bad policy and NIMBY's the market is not going to solve this problem on its own, without political change rents and housing prices will keep increasing. Here are some political actions you can take to help: - call your Sta…

Honestly, another thing that could be done is that VCs could start funding things outside of Silicon Valley. There is precisely zero reason why they all need all of their companies to be right there.

VCs want their portfolio companies within easy driving distance to facilitate multiple meetings per day.

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#364
post #225
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

5 years. How cute. Prop 13, a law with horrific long-term consequences, was passed by the voters in response to the housing crisis. 40 years ago. http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-housing-supply/ San Francisco rents have sometimes gone down slightly, but they never returned to sane levels, and affordable housing for the poor hasn’t been abundant in many, many years.

That article has nothing to do with Prop 13 (the only mention of prop 13 is in the comments). And while I think Prop 13 is an abomination for a variety of reasons, there's basically no evidence that it reduces new construction.

Yeah, I was in a hurry. My point was that voters were already voting to save themselves from the housing crisis 40 years ago; while making the crisis even worse. The article was about how the housing crisis goes back even further.

Ultimately, the original sin was racism.

http://www.oaklandmagazine.com/May-2017/The-Real-Cause-of-Ge...

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/11/zoning-...

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#365
post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am much less interested in what "should" happen in a macroeconomic sense than what is happening: lots of people need to live here right now . It's worth remembering that the people most hurt by NIMBY policies are not, by and large, the tech workers making six-figure salaries. The victims are the teachers, firefighters, artists, nurses, secretaries, and everyone else who isn't a programmer. Yeah, it might be nice if…

"The victims are the teachers, firefighters, artists, nurses, secretaries, and everyone else who isn't a programmer." OK...but that's also an argument for creating public policy that discourages tech companies from locating in the city. We could start by eliminating the mid-Market tax incentives. The "yimby" movement is at least as much about tech companies who have invaded and now want to change their environment, a…

The housing crisis is much MUCH older than the tech boom. From your privileged position, with lots of income relative to normal Americans, there wasn’t a crisis until you couldn’t afford San Francisco.

My parents are poor, so I watched the market from the bottom end. What I experienced was that the amount we paid for what we got was sort of dumb, but at least we could afford an illegal in-law. Then, in the early 1990s, we got an OMI eviction and moved in with relatives. And now I’m paying twice as much for a fourth of the space in the same neighborhood, while my parents were ripped from their communities and moved out of the Bay Area.

For the low end of the market, any restriction will make housing more scarce, and San Francisco is not short on restrictions. That is why I support the YIMBY movement.

https://sf.curbed.com/2013/4/3/10257506/navigating-the-treac...

Even without the tech boom, California hasn’t been keeping up with housing demand:

“Every generation, civilization is invaded by barbarians - we call them ‘children.’” - Hannah Arendt

http://ochousingnews.com/california-nimbys-dont-love-childre...

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#366
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AirBnB is a huge factor. Take a look at http://insideairbnb.com/san-francisco/ and the chart under Activity and see it go up after 2012.

AirBnB doesn’t cause 3 bedroom tract houses in Cupertino to cost $2 million. There is AirBnB in Houston and it has almost an unmeasurable effect of prices. I don’t know if the Bay Area has rent control, but those types of policies (along with planning commissions and other bureaucracies have more deleterious impacts than a thousand AirBnBs. The simple fact is that if you own a Bay Area home, you will oppose increased…

Houston has a 20% vacancy rate [1]. Unfortunately, I can't recall the source but I did read a study that concluded that Airbnb has no effect on rental prices where the vacancy rate is 6% or more but it absolutely drives prices up in low vacancy rate cities.

I live in one with [1] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-17/houston-commercial-...

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"If someone in a low-cost area has a gross income of $30,000, and expenses of $25,000, then someone in a high-cost area with a gross income of $150,000 can take on expenses of $145,000 without being any worse off." I disagree: $5,000 has a lot more buying power in the low income area than the high-cost area.

I guess that ultimately depends on what you want to do with your discretionary money. The day-to-day costs are already accounted for in our hypothetical examples. Someone in a low-cost area may want to travel to the city to take in the entertainment and amenities available in the big flashy city, in which case that money is being spent in a high-cost area. Similarly, someone in a high-cost area may want to travel to…

I claim that there only has to be at least one so-called discretionary thing priced differentially based on housing/CoL to make living in the lower cost area more financially optimal. It's easy to show there exists at least one; in fact, there are many.

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#368
post #22

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> Riding BART into and out of SF as a commute is ridiculous at a new level nowadays. Especially given the shocking number of uneducated people who insist on keeping their backpacks on their shoulders despite the train being packed. Totally pisses me off!

Ok, while we are on BART gripes: what is the deal with people trying to squeeze their way upstream and board the cars before everyone has fully detrained? In NYC peeps form little ad-hoc queues to the left and right of the doors, let the exiters exit, then enter in two quick streams. In the Bay, I feel like MFing Moses trying to part the sea when exiting a train. Don't even get me started on the weird station lines t…

I hear ya. SF is a cowtown compared to NYC, a true capital of the world. Our role is to educate these people I guess, but this place is being overrun by the Chinese and they don't have the best of manners. I don't appreciate families hogging the Muni, sitting their last three generations in the first Mickey Mouse seats of the Vehicle, ugh...

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#369
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know they're uneducated?

In Spanish and Portuguese "mal educado" == literally "poorly educated" is used to mean "someone with poor etiquette ... doesn't know how things should work" ... writer probably means in that sense.

Dude that is not Spanish, that is Mexican. That's mestizzo native Spanish not European Spanish. Me cagó en Dios.

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#370
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Riding BART into and out of SF as a commute is ridiculous at a new level nowadays. Especially given the shocking number of uneducated people who insist on keeping their backpacks on their shoulders despite the train being packed. Totally pisses me off!

Pisses me off that I have to take off my bag. I have to keep my feet together to protect it, which doesn't help my balancing leverage.

Try to just hang it with your hands, you'll see, it's not that bad and the bonus is that you don't piss off other people.
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