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The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

tomtunguz.com

21–30 of 417 posts

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A house in Tahoe you use 3 weeks a year is not really rental stock, and it's not clear what benefit the public gets from your 2nd home that would justify a tax subsidy

With VRBO and other sharing apps, yes that house in Tahoe is rental stock.

Short-term rentals aren't housing.

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#22

Both top-level comments have mentioned housing prices. I grew up in the Bay Area and want to stay here and I am trying to work to change policy to help build more housing. Unfortunately due to law, bad policy and NIMBY's the market is not going to solve this problem on its own, without political change rents and housing prices will keep increasing. Here are some political actions you can take to help: - call your Sta…

It's almost comical how overcrowded BART has gotten at rush hour. Embarcadero and Powell stations become standing room only. I live deep in the east bay, and the new apartment building going up across the street has 1 bedroom layouts starting at $2800. Something has to give, or people will simply give up.

> Riding BART into and out of SF as a commute is ridiculous at a new level nowadays.

Especially given the shocking number of uneducated people who insist on keeping their backpacks on their shoulders despite the train being packed. Totally pisses me off!

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#23
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With VRBO and other sharing apps, yes that house in Tahoe is rental stock.

Short-term rentals aren't housing.

Yes, they are, but short-term, and it takes longer-term housing off the market. This is ravaging the housing markets of many mountain villages.

Re-reading the comment I was originally replying to, the commenter might have meant that the 2nd home didn't justify a tax deduction, which I would most definitely agree with. A 2nd home is an investment, and there should be no tax incentives on that sort of investment.

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#24

Both top-level comments have mentioned housing prices. I grew up in the Bay Area and want to stay here and I am trying to work to change policy to help build more housing. Unfortunately due to law, bad policy and NIMBY's the market is not going to solve this problem on its own, without political change rents and housing prices will keep increasing. Here are some political actions you can take to help: - call your Sta…

How much money does it take to meaningfully move SF elections? (wondering about the viability of a Super PAC backed by SF rentiers and commuters)

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#25
post #2

Another explanation could be that real estate costs is driving founders and startups out of the city. If most of the founders don't live in SF, they're more likely to open offices in the valley. Heavy traffic to/from SF doesn't help with the situation.

Or the costs are driving potential founders out of founding. If you double your monthly costs, you double the amount you need to save in order to have enough runway to "two guys in a basement" your way into enough traction for funding. Plus you need more funding for getting enough roadway for employees and an actual business.

Maybe I'm far more mobile than others, but I'm really surprised that there isn't a wave of people trying to poach childless engineers into moving 1-4 hours out of SF to set up shop. Reno, in particular - it's 4 hours out, has actually reasonable real estate prices, and no state income tax. Maybe getting funding requires the VCs to make the trip to your office, and you're not able to just have your leadership make the trip out to SF?

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#26
post #2

Another explanation could be that real estate costs is driving founders and startups out of the city. If most of the founders don't live in SF, they're more likely to open offices in the valley. Heavy traffic to/from SF doesn't help with the situation.

The article already addressed this. Real estate has no impact, since Palo Alto, which is equally expensive, has seen dramatic increase in funding. The trend is really random. Tomorrow Uber will raise $5bn and will all come up with a different explanation

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#27
post #2

Another explanation could be that real estate costs is driving founders and startups out of the city. If most of the founders don't live in SF, they're more likely to open offices in the valley. Heavy traffic to/from SF doesn't help with the situation.

Or the costs are driving potential founders out of founding. If you double your monthly costs, you double the amount you need to save in order to have enough runway to "two guys in a basement" your way into enough traction for funding. Plus you need more funding for getting enough roadway for employees and an actual business. Maybe I'm far more mobile than others, but I'm really surprised that there isn't a wave of p…

If that was viable, people would move to Tracy or Stockton or Davis which are nearer to SF than Reno and cheaper. That's not how things work though.

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#28

Both top-level comments have mentioned housing prices. I grew up in the Bay Area and want to stay here and I am trying to work to change policy to help build more housing. Unfortunately due to law, bad policy and NIMBY's the market is not going to solve this problem on its own, without political change rents and housing prices will keep increasing. Here are some political actions you can take to help: - call your Sta…

How much money does it take to meaningfully move SF elections? (wondering about the viability of a Super PAC backed by SF rentiers and commuters)

Some people are talking about that but honestly you have to start with building coalitions and groups, and lobby for all the policies in between elections, it can't just be November every 2 years.

These people are working on it and you should talk to them: http://www.sfyimby.org/. Also SFHAC, East Bay Forward.

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#29
post #5

TL;DR: The investments are moving from the city proper to South Bay over the last 2-3 years. Mostly a good writeup backed by sufficient data points. If I may anecdotally share my observations, of the handful of people that I personally know who have founded Startups in 2016 and 2017 -- all of them are in their late 30s, and have dependents (spouse, children, pets). All of them currently live on the peninsula or in th…

Those places are all just as, if not more, expensive than SF and come with their own challenges as well. The school systems in the peninsula are fantastic though, and for most families that trade-off alone is probably worth it.

Re: The Decline of Investment in San Francisco Startups

#30

Both top-level comments have mentioned housing prices. I grew up in the Bay Area and want to stay here and I am trying to work to change policy to help build more housing. Unfortunately due to law, bad policy and NIMBY's the market is not going to solve this problem on its own, without political change rents and housing prices will keep increasing. Here are some political actions you can take to help: - call your Sta…

It's almost comical how overcrowded BART has gotten at rush hour. Embarcadero and Powell stations become standing room only. I live deep in the east bay, and the new apartment building going up across the street has 1 bedroom layouts starting at $2800. Something has to give, or people will simply give up.

Correct.

And the best way to fix Bart overcrowding is to build apartments near where people work so they don't HAVE to commute.

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