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Futurist Ray Kurzweil Pulls Out All the Stops (and Pills) to Live to Witness the Singularity

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Re: Futurist Ray Kurzweil Pulls Out All the Stops (and Pills) to Live to Witness the Singularity

#31

Post by fiaz »

pchristensen wrote: post #23
fiaz wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I strongly disagree with Point #2. How we interact with our environment contributes greatly to how we perceive the world. Intelligence that is synthesized outside of natural processes (I think the term "AI" is paradoxical when describing super-human intelligence) will require means of interacting with the environment in the same way we require our bodies. It would be evolutionarily advantageous for a superhuman intel…

If you boil down what the brain really does, it chooses actions based on experience and inputs. If we want an AI that will operate in the real world, then yes, it will need some sort of body so it can learn how the world works (physics simulations are nowhere near as complete as the real world is). If we want an AI that makes financial predictions, then streaming in stock prices, financial reports, news data, etc is…

But limiting an intelligence to simply making financial decisions is not the type of intelligence Kurzweil is talking about. What you are describing is much more limited than what "strong AI" is actually supposed to be.

You bring up an EXCELLENT point about robotics being more advanced than AI.

Re: Futurist Ray Kurzweil Pulls Out All the Stops (and Pills) to Live to Witness the Singularity

#32

Post by truck »

AnotherUser wrote: post #11

To address the points raised in these comments: 1. We do NOT have "the equivalent computing power of a kitten's brain." That's like saying that because we have apples we have the equivalent taste of an orange. The only real way to translate current silicon processor-based computing into a biological brain-based form is to ask how http://www.technologyreview.com/Biotech/19767/ ">many neurons can we model on current ha…

RE: #1, even when we can simulate the entire brain, how will we know what topology the network should have and what the node nonlinearities should be? 100 billion nodes can be connected a few different ways. Parameter estimation of a dynamic nonlinear network of this size is the real limitation.

Re: Futurist Ray Kurzweil Pulls Out All the Stops (and Pills) to Live to Witness the Singularity

#33

Post by colinplamondon »

Prrometheus wrote: post #9

>Kurzweil predicts that by the early 2030s, most of our fallible internal organs will have been replaced by tiny robots. We'll have "eliminated the heart, lungs, red and white blood cells, platelets, pancreas, thyroid and all the hormone-producing organs, kidneys, bladder, liver, lower esophagus, stomach, small intestines, large intestines, and bowel. What we have left at this point is the skeleton, skin, sex organs,…

That's assuming that breakthrough research will continue to come out of the United States and Europe, as opposed to China, where human rights purposefully lag without repercussion from other nations.

The major advances over the fifty years will likely come from China for that very reason- the countries that are less risk-adverse will have the greatest technological strides as the frontiers of technology get more and more morally murky.

Is it ok to remove someone's organs and replace them with the mechanical equivalent, knowing that they may very well die as a result? Is it ok to do it with their permission? Without their permission?

France just had a issue where a woman had a rare form of cancer that caused her to look like the girl from Saw with her eyeball hanging out, on top of the whole 'dying of cancer and in excruciating terminal pain' thing.

She was in so much pain, so miserable, and so without hope that she decided she would opt for euthanasia. The courts denied her petition, and she quickly committed suicide on her own.

If we have issues like that with cancer patients, just imagine the issues when we start dealing more with genetic engineering, nano-technology, human cloning, and cybernetic enhancement.

Here in the US, these technologies will, for better or for worse, be held up by the government and our courts as we collectively attempt to wrap our minds around the implications.

In other countries, research will move along, full speed ahead.

Re: Futurist Ray Kurzweil Pulls Out All the Stops (and Pills) to Live to Witness the Singularity

#34

Post by BrandonM »

giardini wrote: post #15

I loved Kurzweil's book. Unfortunately in all the talk about Moore's Law and exponential growth, Murphy's Law was forgotten (perhaps in a self-referencing manifestation of the same law). Example: My HMO has figured out that, if a patient has a serious chronic ailment (e.g., diabetes, heart disease, cancer, etc.) then it is cheaper for them should the patient die: I. Treat patient: cost of treatment $100 cost of futur…

This is exactly why health and life insurance is a losing game. Your health insurance company loses money when it fulfills its purported purpose. Life insurance puts you on the wrong side of the bet: you are betting that your life will be short.

I highly doubt that Kurzweil has an HMO.

Re: Futurist Ray Kurzweil Pulls Out All the Stops (and Pills) to Live to Witness the Singularity

#35

Post by aswanson »

dbreunig wrote: post #25

Anyone seen one of his talks or ppts? Anyone else get those creepy cult feelings? Anyone?

Yes. I've laid out my objections to his timetables here before: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=142175

I like what his books do in terms of sparking the imagination, but take his claims with the same level of skepticism as I do an infomercial. Another thing is the repitition; if you've read Age of Intelligent Machines you've read Age of Spiritual Machines as well as Singularity is Near.

Some of the predictions of Spiritual Machines have fallen short already: Most people don't use speech recognition to enter data into computers. Granted, he chose 2009 as that target date, but I feel safe that won't be the main method of entry in a few months.

Re: Futurist Ray Kurzweil Pulls Out All the Stops (and Pills) to Live to Witness the Singularity

#36

Post by pchristensen »

ericb wrote: post #28
r7000 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great points. > Consider if you could make perfect clones of yourself, with all of your memories and developments. > Those clones would act exactly like you, but they still wouldn't be you. I believe the argument is something along the line of if you replace a neuron with some sort of artificial neuron are you still "you"? How about another 10? How about a handful here and a handful there over the course of a year? W…

On the same token, if you cloned me, and he was sitting next to me and I had to choose who would get shot, I'd choose him. He isn't me because I can't access his thoughts. I think identity is tied to physical and temporal location and is in continual flux, so a clone is never me--it never occupies the same points in space and time. The nerve replacement idea is tough, though. Maybe our idea of identity is wrong, arti…

Of course, he'd definitely pick you to get shot!

Re: Futurist Ray Kurzweil Pulls Out All the Stops (and Pills) to Live to Witness the Singularity

#37

Post by pchristensen »

fiaz wrote: post #31
pchristensen wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you boil down what the brain really does, it chooses actions based on experience and inputs. If we want an AI that will operate in the real world, then yes, it will need some sort of body so it can learn how the world works (physics simulations are nowhere near as complete as the real world is). If we want an AI that makes financial predictions, then streaming in stock prices, financial reports, news data, etc is…

But limiting an intelligence to simply making financial decisions is not the type of intelligence Kurzweil is talking about. What you are describing is much more limited than what "strong AI" is actually supposed to be. You bring up an EXCELLENT point about robotics being more advanced than AI.

True, I think the discussion was about the broader AI, but Kurzweil is all about AGI.

Re: Futurist Ray Kurzweil Pulls Out All the Stops (and Pills) to Live to Witness the Singularity

#38

Post by ericb »

david927 wrote: post #8
mynameishere wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What we don't have is the software that can recognize a dog without having ever seen one before. Sure we do. ................... Anyway, there is a problem with the notion of super-intelligent robots. Without getting too much into it, suffice to say that robots will be forced to subscribe to the same survival-of-the-fittest constraints that humans have. When you observe the human species, it might seem strange that t…

Sure we do. Really? And we have software that can recognize a cat from a dog (as that kitten can do)? And my face from yours even if I cover my ears (as the kitten will be able to do once it imprints)? I'd like to see that software! The truth is Kurzweil and others are fooling themselves if they think this is a hardware issue.

> The truth is Kurzweil and others are fooling themselves if they think this is a hardware issue.

I agree that the state of that software is not there yet from what I've seen, but their workaround for the software limitations is to say we will model a working brain rather than inventing the software. If this is possible, it becomes a hardware issue.

Re: Futurist Ray Kurzweil Pulls Out All the Stops (and Pills) to Live to Witness the Singularity

#39

Post by Tichy »

Prrometheus wrote: post #9

>Kurzweil predicts that by the early 2030s, most of our fallible internal organs will have been replaced by tiny robots. We'll have "eliminated the heart, lungs, red and white blood cells, platelets, pancreas, thyroid and all the hormone-producing organs, kidneys, bladder, liver, lower esophagus, stomach, small intestines, large intestines, and bowel. What we have left at this point is the skeleton, skin, sex organs,…

I think it is already happening, there are artificial hearts, for example?

Re: Futurist Ray Kurzweil Pulls Out All the Stops (and Pills) to Live to Witness the Singularity

#40

Post by Tichy »

giardini wrote: post #15

I loved Kurzweil's book. Unfortunately in all the talk about Moore's Law and exponential growth, Murphy's Law was forgotten (perhaps in a self-referencing manifestation of the same law). Example: My HMO has figured out that, if a patient has a serious chronic ailment (e.g., diabetes, heart disease, cancer, etc.) then it is cheaper for them should the patient die: I. Treat patient: cost of treatment $100 cost of futur…

What is a HMO? In any case, if an insurance company would default to "Let patient die", it would probably lose a lot of customers - shareholders would not be pleased.
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