Earlier quoted context omitted.
I recall seeing a comment by Paul Graham somewhere to the effect that Zuckerberg set off his "founder detector" very strongly. This was after Zuckerberg was successful, admittedly, but it at least gives some suggestion that someone skilled at recognizing founders would have seen his potential.
It wasn't a comment on HN, but during an interview (video) he did with MZ on YC. I don't have a link, but that may help. Zuckerburg was telling a story of how he built a "social" website to share notes for an art history class, except he didn't have any notes himself but got everyone to share theirs so he could pass his exam. This supposedly was an early experience that started him thinking about social websites and…
Things I wish someone had told me before I started angel investing
211–220 of 231 posts
Re: Things I wish someone had told me before I started angel investing
#212Earlier quoted context omitted.
If there could be a book, then there's enough for a blog post for the four cases you mentioned. As it is, you are telling me that during the night aliens will attack my business, leave without a trace, but have my business in ruins by 8 AM in the morning. Your claim is the first I ever heard of such a thing. Having orders of magnitude better price/performance is amazing. An "order of magnitude" is usually a factor of…
> you are telling me that during the night aliens will attack my business That's right. That is exactly what I am telling you. Aliens. Definitely aliens. > Your claim is the first I ever heard of such a thing. What can I say? You heard it here first. > Having orders of magnitude better price/performance is amazing. Yes. It was. > those are not easy to come by Indeed not. > What went wrong? That's a long story. But th…
From about 1980 to about 2000, LAN technology was a chaotic war. The war part was from all the competitive battles. The chaos was from all the different technologies, often to address some of the issues in the link you gave. There was no cheap, easy, perfect solution.
So, there were the various versions of Ethernet. Also there was token ring. And of course ATM, really intended for voice and video streams. And I forget some of the clever addressing ideas.
The problem was, year by year, all the ideas that looked good one year were swamped just by much faster data rates the next year. Finally, TCP/IP let the lower levels be sloppy, e.g., have dropped packets, out of order packets, goofy packet timing, etc. For streaming (not conversational) video over TCP/IP, just have a lot of data rate (that is, a network with much more data rate than might think would be needed) and buffer at the receiving end.
Flownet looks like a nice solution for a problem that, however, was well on the way to going away due mostly just to much faster data rates.
It's nice that Flownet was developed so nicely on Linux, so quickly, and for so little cash.
But for making a business out of Flownet, I wouldn't have tried: Basically would have to go to some big office buildings with some big LANs running Linux (so that your device driver development would work) and have them convert over to Flownet. But mostly those offices would have been running Windows for which there were no Flownet device drivers. And mostly those offices were busy, at each computer upgrade, riding the Windows, Ethernet, Cisco LAN switch and/or TCP/IP router horses. Flownet would have been a tough sale.
I know; that's easy to see with 20/20 hindsight. But those years, I was using first 4 Mpbs token ring and then 16 Mbps token ring and watching 10/100/1000 Ethernet rise. I could see that token ring was dying. Also dying was IBM Systems Network Architecture (SNA). In IBM Research, I went to lots of research presentations where the speakers were hinting how dumb it was for reliability not to go just end to end as in TCP/IP.
Flownet was a long way from "orders of magnitude" (factors of 10) better. Flownet was aimed at a market with a lot of big, powerful players -- IBM, Cisco, Juniper, and more -- and where the market was in chaos due to the rapid speed increases of Ethernet, the death of dial-up, AOL, Prodigy, and Compuserve, the use of the coaxial cable of cable TV to carry telephone and Internet traffic to SMBs and living rooms, all the legal stuff about sharing the last mile, ADSL, etc.
When the giants are in a chaotic war, looking for critical mass, setting de facto standards, and pushing data rates by 1-3 factors of 10, little guys stay out.
In broad terms, right now is a great opportunity: Get to use HTML as a great user interface well understood by 3+ billion people. Get to develop Web pages that will look good on anything from a smartphone to a work station with a Web browser up to date as of about 10 years ago. Get to exploit the Internet which for the more developed countries can easily supply 10+ Mbps data rates to everyone, fixed or mobile. Get to use Windows or Linux for Web servers, and using commodity motherboards and processors can build one heck of a Web server for $1500. Can put that Web server in nearly any room in the industrialized world that has a cable TV connection. Are just awash in powerful, often quite cheap or free infrastructure software from operating systems, data base managers, Web server and page tools, language processors, communications, etc. E.g., now the Ethernet, cable TV, ISP, Internet backbone connections and TCP/IP stack software are nearly universal and rock solid.
Now get just to build on these resources and get to avoid developing them.
Now, just think of something good to do with these resources, along the lines I outlined.
In particular, now get to stay the heck away from developing hardware, fighting industry standards, writing device drivers, hanging on by fingernails as processor clocks and data rates are increasing by more than an order of magnitude, developing your own user interface (as AOL tried/had to do), etc.
Re: Things I wish someone had told me before I started angel investing
#213Earlier quoted context omitted.
> you are telling me that during the night aliens will attack my business That's right. That is exactly what I am telling you. Aliens. Definitely aliens. > Your claim is the first I ever heard of such a thing. What can I say? You heard it here first. > Having orders of magnitude better price/performance is amazing. Yes. It was. > those are not easy to come by Indeed not. > What went wrong? That's a long story. But th…
The Flownet article was nice. I got reminded of lots of old networking stuff, e.g., ATM. From about 1980 to about 2000, LAN technology was a chaotic war. The war part was from all the competitive battles. The chaos was from all the different technologies, often to address some of the issues in the link you gave. There was no cheap, easy, perfect solution. So, there were the various versions of Ethernet. Also there wa…
That article was written towards the end of FlowNet, when we were already winding it down. The work started in 1990. We built our first (and only) prototypes in 1992 (self-funded). Fast Ethernet was not introduced until 1995, and at that point our BOM cost was 20 times lower because our NICs used 100% off-the-shelf commodity hardware, and we didn't need hubs or switches. So for about a year we were 5x faster and 20x cheaper. It took five years for Fast Ethernet to completely catch up with us.
And remind me to tell you the story of Tokutek some time.
Re: Things I wish someone had told me before I started angel investing
#214Earlier quoted context omitted.
A $5k check will give a super-early-stage "startup" (two or three college kids) with no salaries and about $1000/month burn rate ("living expenses" in the right market outside of SV) about four months of runway. You'd have to approach at a sufficiently early stage (like so: http://velocity.uwaterloo.ca/funding/velocity-fund/ ).
What share of the company would you expect for that kind of investment? If the amount would be trivial then why would you bother (little reward for so much risk), but if it's non-trivial then why would they accept your money, given how small the amount is compared to the value of their sweat equity? If they really believe in what they're doing, they won't want to give chunks of it away so cheaply. Conversely, if they…
Angel Investors get huge stakes for their small high-risk outlays.
http://blog.ycombinator.com/the-new-deal/
> We have a new standard deal at YC—we’ll invest $120k for 7%.
> This replaces our previous standard deal of on average $17k for 7%, plus a SAFE that converted at the terms of the next money raised for another $80k.
Originally, before they invented the SAFE, there was no SAFE in the deal
Re: Things I wish someone had told me before I started angel investing
#215There is a small cadre of people who actually have what it takes to successfully build an NBT, and experienced investors are pretty good at recognizing them. I really do question this. The "problem of induction"[1] comes into play when you start talking about pattern matching and learning from "experience". That is, there's no guarantee that the future will look like the past. Before Zuckerberg was Zuckerberg, I wond…
And also memory is very tricky. I imagine there are lots of people who met Zuckerberg thought he didn't have it took, but now believe they always thought we was going to succeed. That's why I suggest angel investors write down everything they thought about an encounter with someone immediately after the meeting. Why you think they'd succeed and fail? Then when you follow them in the future you can compare your notes…
Re: Things I wish someone had told me before I started angel investing
#216There is a small cadre of people who actually have what it takes to successfully build an NBT, and experienced investors are pretty good at recognizing them. I really do question this. The "problem of induction"[1] comes into play when you start talking about pattern matching and learning from "experience". That is, there's no guarantee that the future will look like the past. Before Zuckerberg was Zuckerberg, I wond…
There's tons of companies like Clinkle, where the founder literally and figuratively looked just like Zuckerberg. Looking the part doesn't guarantee success, but it often does guarantee a few huge rounds of funding, at very impressive valuations.
Re: Things I wish someone had told me before I started angel investing
#217Earlier quoted context omitted.
It wasn't a comment on HN, but during an interview (video) he did with MZ on YC. I don't have a link, but that may help. Zuckerburg was telling a story of how he built a "social" website to share notes for an art history class, except he didn't have any notes himself but got everyone to share theirs so he could pass his exam. This supposedly was an early experience that started him thinking about social websites and…
> Zuckerburg was telling a story[...]PG then commented how his internal alarm was going off saying "fund him. Is this a story about PG's amazing "founder detector" or perhaps one about the learnable skill of telling a good story to potential investors?
Re: Things I wish someone had told me before I started angel investing
#218My 2 cents - As an investor or potential employee when analyzing a startup, pay close attention to how scrappy and capital efficient they are. Do they have excessively nice office space? Are the founders making too much in salary? Does it seem like the executives are working like animals, or do they have the big company mindset where they take it easy? Startups are nothing like established, revenue-generating compani…
Hahaha. Work like an animal for some guy who is semi-retired. Pass on that deal.
Re: Things I wish someone had told me before I started angel investing
#219My 2 cents - As an investor or potential employee when analyzing a startup, pay close attention to how scrappy and capital efficient they are. Do they have excessively nice office space? Are the founders making too much in salary? Does it seem like the executives are working like animals, or do they have the big company mindset where they take it easy? Startups are nothing like established, revenue-generating compani…
When you see startups blow millions a year on AWS spend because its "easy", when you could do the same on dedicated hardware for 1/10th or even 1/100th the price, it always shocks me. Yes, queue the comments about "Total cost of ownership", past the point where you cant afford an OPs person(s) (which you will eventually need for AWS anyways) AWS is a money-sucking black hole.
Re: Things I wish someone had told me before I started angel investing
#220Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are most angel investors focused on finding the 1000x companies (i.e. the NBT) that VCs are? I guess my question is what's a practical, good outcome for an angel investor when a company exits? Or what rate of return do the most successful angel investors have?
I was in denial about this for a long time, but the fact of the matter is that your overall outcome is almost entirely determined by your outliers. If you take all of the investments I've ever made, including going to work as an early hire at Google, the I've won. If I leave out Google, then I've lost. If I leave out my single biggest loss, then I've won again. If I leave out my next biggest win, then I've broken eve…