Excellent. After the first line I deliberately closed my eyes and tried to re-reason it (and got it right, thankfully). It was quite refreshing to have a blog post make you actually stop and really think for a second. The point was good as well. ;)
It's the whole blog, not just the post :) Really worth bookmarking.
http://thelastpsychiatrist.com/2010/06/are_certain_behaviors...
EDIT: money quote: The science error of our generation is this: If A is strongly associated with B, and B is strongly associated with C, then A is strongly associated to C.