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Bitcoin Is Having a Civil War as It Enters a Critical Month

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Re: Bitcoin Is Having a Civil War as It Enters a Critical Month

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't control, but they have lots of power in the sense that 99% of people will just run the bitcoin core client without researching too much, what is in the code.

Not true, the miners are heavily vested and do their research. Speculators who just buy and sell go wherever the market is which is wherever the miners are.

Speculators have various reasons buy and sell many of which have little to do with miners.

Re: Bitcoin Is Having a Civil War as It Enters a Critical Month

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I suspect that SegWit2x will end up taking over the network" What? They had first release like yesterday, the project has released one tarball, no packaging, no very good marketing etc. The biggest marketers seem to be the tinfoil hat opponents who fear the fork so much that they speak about it everywhere. I don't think it is at all likely that segwit2x client will gain support. Or if it will gain support, it will t…

90% of the hashing power has signaled their intention to adopt segwit2x as of late June. I assume it will become the dominant chain once it locks in right before August 1st.

That's assuming hashing power will determine the outcome.

In the exchanges runs will take place. The actual economic users will vote this issue out.

In the end spreadsheets will be updated, and miners won't want to spend their electricity on a chain that went unprofitable.

Miners may have the software coming from segwit2x, and be the ones who actually provide the technical consensus. But the economic consensus will trump everything else; and late software along with questionable roadmap does not inspire confidence.

Re: Bitcoin Is Having a Civil War as It Enters a Critical Month

#123

This is a fight for control of Bitcoin. It is business interests on both sides fighting for a position of authority. SegWit2x is an attempt to remove control from the core dev team, which while technically strong is full of zealots with questionable motives and terrible management skills. Bitcoin ABC and Unlimited have their own parts to play as factions. It's getting tense, but it's been years in the making. Groups…

> I've said it before but anyone who put money into Blockstream

You seem to have taken sides against BitcoinCore team, following the typical conspiracy theories. But FYI, Blockstream is not Core, Core is not Blockstream. More info: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/622bjp/bitcoin_cor...

Re: Bitcoin Is Having a Civil War as It Enters a Critical Month

#124

Sorry if this is a stupid question, but why not both? It doesn't appear that the two strategies are mutually exclusive. Is it just that SegWitX2 is considered too rushed? Is it just that miners have a vested interest in maintaining influence? Personally it seems like smart contracts and other similar services beget an ecosystem that could swell the market cap by a significant amount, I assume miners would have a long…

> Sorry if this is a stupid question, but why not both? By both you mean, SegWit + Bigger blocks? It's not possible today to raise the blocksize without exponentially increasing the computing resources required to run a Bitcoin node. So it's not a parameter that can be easily tweaked without drastic consequences. Also, increasing the blocksize requires what's called a hardfork. That's a backwards incompatible change.…

Thanks for the explanation, that makes the bit about 80% of miners needing to adopt make sense.

Why do you lack confidence in the SegWit2X developers? It seems the miners would be the last ones wanting a potentially fatal bug. Do they have less to lose if an exploit/honest bug burns the blockchain?

Again, apologies if these are uninformed questions- I have only a layman's understanding of BTC.

Re: Bitcoin Is Having a Civil War as It Enters a Critical Month

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't control, but they have lots of power in the sense that 99% of people will just run the bitcoin core client without researching too much, what is in the code.

Not true, the miners are heavily vested and do their research. Speculators who just buy and sell go wherever the market is which is wherever the miners are.

>Speculators who just buy and sell go wherever the market is which is wherever the miners are.

Isn't "wherever the market is" wherever spending power is?

Re: Bitcoin Is Having a Civil War as It Enters a Critical Month

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin protocol is defined by bitcoin core client, and I would guess more than 99% percent of the services that process bitcoin transactions use that client. The services don't follow actively the hash rate and they won't change the client based on that - the network automatically adjusts to the hash rate available so that blocks come each 10 minutes. If there would exist some other cryptocurrency with more hash rat…

That's not what it means. You are right that those clients would begin rejecting blocks, but you can be sure that when customers are calling them asking why their transactions aren't being validated that they will switch. It's not economically feasible to run a business on a minority hash power chain with low transaction throughput.

"when customers are calling them asking why their transactions aren't being validated that they will switch."

If majority of hashpower would start mining invalid blocks, there would still be some amount of hashpower mining the real chain. Transactions would confirm, albeit more slowly. For the miners mining the real chain the situation would be very good, because less competition from other miners -> more found blocks, more money. Probably the hash rate would grow pretty quickly, and if it wouldn't, the difficulty target would adjust after the 2 week difficulty adjustment period, and confirmation speeds would be back to normal.

Re: Bitcoin Is Having a Civil War as It Enters a Critical Month

#127
post #123

This is a fight for control of Bitcoin. It is business interests on both sides fighting for a position of authority. SegWit2x is an attempt to remove control from the core dev team, which while technically strong is full of zealots with questionable motives and terrible management skills. Bitcoin ABC and Unlimited have their own parts to play as factions. It's getting tense, but it's been years in the making. Groups…

> I've said it before but anyone who put money into Blockstream You seem to have taken sides against BitcoinCore team, following the typical conspiracy theories. But FYI, Blockstream is not Core, Core is not Blockstream. More info: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/622bjp/bitcoin_cor...

I have taken sides, but against the general core development process and the corporate interests that are permeating it. Yes, blockstream is not core, but they have exerted a tremendous amount of influence on the team and direction. In addition to directly employing many core developers, sponsoring contractors, and tirelessly advocating for a vision of Bitcoin that frankly differs substantially from anything put forth in Satoshi's paper. It's not a conspiracy theory, I've watched it unfold in person for years.

Re: Bitcoin Is Having a Civil War as It Enters a Critical Month

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin protocol is defined by bitcoin core client, and I would guess more than 99% percent of the services that process bitcoin transactions use that client. The services don't follow actively the hash rate and they won't change the client based on that - the network automatically adjusts to the hash rate available so that blocks come each 10 minutes. If there would exist some other cryptocurrency with more hash rat…

That's not what it means. You are right that those clients would begin rejecting blocks, but you can be sure that when customers are calling them asking why their transactions aren't being validated that they will switch. It's not economically feasible to run a business on a minority hash power chain with low transaction throughput.

As long as one miner is still mining the core chain, the transaction will be validated. It may take a little while at first, but difficulty will adapt.

It's going to be 2 legitimate currencies that are going to differ in value in exchanges. And each current BTC holder will be able to spend 2 coins (provided they take precautions against replayability; like making at first a double-spend to different wallets on the two chains separately)

Now the question is: what will the most BTC-rich people do?

Re: Bitcoin Is Having a Civil War as It Enters a Critical Month

#129
post #2

TL;DR: Bitcoin is popping, and Ethereum is going to be the new bubble.

Not really. It's explaining the dynamics around the possible hard. Who wants what & why they want it. It's the most concise overview I've seen.

Sure, it is not a bubble, but a new paradigm... Oh, wait.
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