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A Critical Analysis of the Subscription Economy

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Re: A Critical Analysis of the Subscription Economy

#51
Interesting take on it. For historical accuracy this was something that Sun talked about in the 90's, you sold someone some software, and that was the last bit of revenue you ever got from them. Except you still had the programmers who wrote the software to pay.

This then is the fundamental problem, when you finish the software do you fire the engineers that worked on it? If not, what do they do?

The fact is that software can actually be "done" and it happens every where. And it takes a special kind of engineer who will work on simply removing blemishes (bugs) and not write any new features.

And that fundamentally points at a really really deep problem, engineering software rather than just writing it.

If your software has very well specified and defined interfaces, and no 'escapes' then you can say it is engineered to be partitionable. And an engineer can be tasked with fixing one part, they can fix that part, and do the qualification tests for that part and then when they integrate it they can be assured the system as a whole continues to work as it always did, but now with a slightly different part. Not surprisingly this was a part of, if not the major part of, the notions in object oriented programming. Once the part (object) worked, you didn't have to think about it any more. An auto-mechanic doesn't have to know the physics of a an ignition system to replace a spark plug, a spark plug manufacturer doesn't have to know the geometry of every cylinder to make a spark plug.

Software as books. You don't go to the library and periodically buy updates to the books you own. Textbooks pull that off but even they know its really a scam. Pythagorean's principle hasn't actually changed and the last text book was just fine.

Open source kind of wins and kind of loses here. The poster child is gcc. Looking at the code base changes over time for a given architecture they start with a flurry of functionality changes, then smooth out to just bug fixes and the occasional optimizer tweak, and then when the noise floor of change frequency gets to a certain level you start seeing really sort of adhoc changes or perhaps changes that only help a very very small part of the user base. Its hard to capture both a gcc for ARM9 and gcc for ARM9 embedded in an FPGA fabric that can have optimized bespoke instructions. And yet they will try.

The author calls them psychopaths but they are the current generation of entrepreneurs which are building businesses based on rents rather than sales. Its all the rage, is not Uber a rent seeking business that simply takes a tax or rent for you using their app? The 'sale' was the car ride, the 'tax' is everything else. This works because collecting rent of $1 a month from a million people is "easy" they hardly miss it, and you're $12M/year richer for it. Selling them $12M worth of value is so much harder. Why push yourself? Everybody is doing it, the streaming company, the phone company, and even the maker of your coffee machine. If you haven't got an ARR you aren't a 21st century company these days.

Re: A Critical Analysis of the Subscription Economy

#52

It's worth considering what a subscription would be worth as a fixed cost. Like say the company was going to invest the fixed cost into the market, and take the interest as if it was continuous income from subscriptions. Or if a user wanted to just invest a fixed amount of money so the interest will always be there for to pay for the subscription. At 5% interest, a subscription of $1 a month is worth a fixed cost of…

If you play World of Warcraft for 20 years, it's easily worth $3600, especially paid out in monthly installments.

Perhaps, I'm just comparing the cost to other games. If you buy a normal game you own it forever. If you wanted to go into debt and pay for a $60 game in unending monthly installments, you'd only need to pay 25 cents a month.

Re: A Critical Analysis of the Subscription Economy

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is exactly not the case that's being discussed here? What is discussed here is the case where you lose the right to use the software if you don't continue to pay, completely independently from what that money is used for, which is why it removes one important incentive to improve the software. And if your skillset and your data is locked up in some software, it's questionable whether you really would stop payin…

GP wrote: "...only reason they'll buy a new copy is if the new one is substantially better than the old..." The obvious, intuitive cause & effect isn't always the case. I bought software to encourage future development, vs wait for new release then decide to upgrade. Push vs pull.

1. Why you bought it is irrelevant to the question of what their incentives are.

2. That people are willing to effectively pay in advance for a future release without any guarantees what they will get for it is irrelevant to the question of whether you have the lever to shut off that cash flow if they continue to not deliver any updates of value to you, while still using the existing version.

In other words: You are simply missing the point.

Re: A Critical Analysis of the Subscription Economy

#54

The case of Adobe is interesting. I think the move to a subscription model has been a hostile move for customers. The second you stop paying for the software, you lose the ability to open your old files. This has allowed smaller software applications such as Sketch, The Affinity Suite and Capture One to grab marketshare. I think Sketch’s current business model is perfect. Customers pay for a year of updates. If a cus…

I personally hate the Adobe model and am still on Photoshop CS6 but my artist friends all love it. Maybe they don't realize they're paying at least double. All they concentrate on is it's cheap to stsrt.

But licenses for the old Creative Suite were an eyewatering $2500 USD for the full suite. Sure, you'll get there in four years with a full-on CC subscription, but for the large number of users who only want Photoshop, the ~ $10 USD / mo. plans are pretty appealing (and Adobe now makes money off of them, since it's easier than pirating it to pay for it).

Re: A Critical Analysis of the Subscription Economy

#55

It's worth considering what a subscription would be worth as a fixed cost. Like say the company was going to invest the fixed cost into the market, and take the interest as if it was continuous income from subscriptions. Or if a user wanted to just invest a fixed amount of money so the interest will always be there for to pay for the subscription. At 5% interest, a subscription of $1 a month is worth a fixed cost of…

Are you saying Blizzard doesn't provide a service for the $15/month that it takes to play WoW?

Re: A Critical Analysis of the Subscription Economy

#56
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But you do realize that the subscription model is exactly the thing that removes the incentive to do that, right? Can you name a single case where this has happened with subscription software, though? The big named examples in the article (as far as I could stand to read it, at least) are Adobe Creative Cloud and Microsoft Office 365. Here's the What's New page for Photoshop CC 2017, along with links to the changes…

>> But you do realize that the subscription model is exactly the thing that removes the incentive to do that, right? > Can you name a single case where this has happened with subscription software, though? Every single one of them. It's just a matter of logic that that incentive is removed. There might be other incentives that still keep them innovating or whatever (like, say, competition, if it's reasonably possible…

You said the incentive to do so, not an incentive to do so. If, as it turns out, there are many different competing incentives, the easiest way to find out what affect switching to subscriptions has on the addition of features to software is to look at software that has switched to subscription. If you do look at it, your concern has little to no practical impact; subscription software gets new features all the time.

Re: A Critical Analysis of the Subscription Economy

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain why considering the dollar amounts that would earn interest equal to subscription costs has any relevancy into how much these services cost? Or put another way -- what?

It seems like GP is calculating 20 years worth of subscription cost. Seems reasonable, but I'd also stop using most subscriptions before 20 years: 5 years seems more likely. I'd probably cancel a subscription if I stopped using the product after a few years or if the related hardware died.

> It seems like GP is calculating 20 years worth of subscription cost.

Well, yes and no. GP is calculating the discounted value of receiving $N annually forever (assuming a fixed constant interest rate r):

    N/(1+r) + N/(1+r)^2 + N/(1+r)^3 + ...
    = N/r
Thus, receiving N$ forever, given rates are 5%, is worth 20N.

(You can derive it from (for |q| Note, by the way, that currently rates are very low (say 1%), and thus receiving a perpetual stream of $N per year is very valuable, namely 100N. That makes the switch to subscriptions even more valuable to these psycho firms.

Re: A Critical Analysis of the Subscription Economy

#58
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> But you do realize that the subscription model is exactly the thing that removes the incentive to do that, right? > Can you name a single case where this has happened with subscription software, though? Every single one of them. It's just a matter of logic that that incentive is removed. There might be other incentives that still keep them innovating or whatever (like, say, competition, if it's reasonably possible…

You said the incentive to do so, not an incentive to do so. If, as it turns out, there are many different competing incentives, the easiest way to find out what affect switching to subscriptions has on the addition of features to software is to look at software that has switched to subscription. If you do look at it, your concern has little to no practical impact; subscription software gets new features all the time.

Which still doesn't tell you which features are missing because of the missing incentive, or how much more you then have to pay to get the new features (which is a different way to say: which features you wouldn't get if you were to pay the same price as otherwise).

Yes, of course, essentially nothing is monocausal, but that doesn't mean my point was fundamentally wrong: The subscription model (and by that I don't mean the setup where you have a contract for regular updates that you could just cancel and keep using the version you have now) removes the old version you already have as a competitor to the new version that you could pay for. That is most likely not going to be to the advantage of the customer, whichever form that disadvantage may take.

Re: A Critical Analysis of the Subscription Economy

#59
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like GP is calculating 20 years worth of subscription cost. Seems reasonable, but I'd also stop using most subscriptions before 20 years: 5 years seems more likely. I'd probably cancel a subscription if I stopped using the product after a few years or if the related hardware died.

> It seems like GP is calculating 20 years worth of subscription cost. Well, yes and no. GP is calculating the discounted value of receiving $N annually forever (assuming a fixed constant interest rate r): N/(1+r) + N/(1+r)^2 + N/(1+r)^3 + ... = N/r Thus, receiving N$ forever, given rates are 5%, is worth 20N. (You can derive it from (for |q| Note, by the way, that currently rates are very low (say 1%), and thus rece…

Except ... they are the ones lending you the money, so they would be the ones paying that high price now for the comparatively low future interest payments from you?

Re: A Critical Analysis of the Subscription Economy

#60
post #12

I know a lot of people here on HN think subscription models are pretty swell - personally I think they're not so great. Sure, they provide revenue that can support security fixes - but at the cost of decimating the incentive to improve features to generate upgrade revenue. After all, if spending more on development doesn't raise revenues much, but cutting down to a skeleton team of maintenance developers means that s…

In my opinion software doesn't have to add features all the time. It would be okay for me if it kept doing what it's doing, except bugs get fixed and performance improves.

Yes, this was particularly evident at Adobe where they were scratching around adding features to justify the upgrade costs.
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