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NASA admits it doesn’t have the funding to land humans on Mars

arstechnica.com

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Re: NASA admits it doesn’t have the funding to land humans on Mars

#311
post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Science fiction almost universally assumes the speed of light is not a hard limit. At this time we have every reason to believe that it is a limit. Our theories also say that if you were to go faster than light (which you cannot) it implies time dilation and time travel - again science fiction just assumes a loop hole so that doesn't happen. Many talk about travel at 10 times the speed of light (warp-10) as if that i…

Now this is rumor but I understand that through CERN particles were measured to be travelling faster then light. Just sayin....

In case this isn't just a joke, they later concluded it was a measurement error caused by a fiber-optical cable that wasn't properly plugged in.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faster-than-light_neutrino_ano...

Re: NASA admits it doesn’t have the funding to land humans on Mars

#312
post #229

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Yea, their research will now actually ship.

NASA is obligated to share their work with Americans. Many products ship with tech NASA invented that probably would not have been shared if a private enterprise came up with it.

Are you joking? The only point of doing private sector research is to build something out of it. We receive those advances as new products.

And NASA doesn't gift it's advances to americans, it shares technologies with private companies that share them in the exact same way. You and I still had to pay for our Tang, it was never free.

NASA is a huge inefficient bureaucracy hamstrung by a fickle and corrupt congress. As brilliant as it's engineers are, and they are very brilliant, their projects are extremely fragile, often getting canceled or not funded for ridiculous reasons, or having ridiculous conditions applied to them that slow development (such as parting work out to the less qualified across many congressional districts).

The largest project NASA is investing most of it's resources in is the SLS. It's not revolutionary. It's not a significant advance. It's just a large launch system that's mostly re-using old technologies. It does nothing to lower launch costs. It does nothing to advance re-usablity. It's not a solution to making deep space manned space exploration economically viable.

Any engineers who work on the SLS are engineers denied to SpaceX, Blue Origin, ULA, Sierra Nevada, or a dozen more cost-efficient space launch companies. NASA's competition for engineers raises engineering costs for everyone else. It's wasteful investment in a pork barrel project like SLS diverts revenues that could fund far more efficient launch systems at private companies, and give NASA far more manned launch capacity and much sooner.

Right now engineers at private companies are doing far more to advance economically viable space travel than NASA. Let's thank NASA for the Saturn program, but realize that everything they've done since has been hugely wasteful of resources and detrimental to advancing the cause of space travel.

Re: NASA admits it doesn’t have the funding to land humans on Mars

#313

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Wow, you are saying if you take a massive pile of money to hire a bunch of the smartest engineers away from private companies and pay them to solve problems, they'll do it? And if NASA didn't exist, and these engineers instead worked for less bureaucratic, more entrepreneurial businesses, they'd invent nothing?

Anecdotally, my group at NASA has seen several of our smartest engineers leave for the private sector in the last couple of years. They are all making heaps more money, but not one of them is doing the kind of innovative research that we do at NASA.

Please name any innovative research NASA is currently doing that will lower the cost of manned space travel. They are wasting $20B+ building a non-reusable launch system based on 1970s technology.

The future of space flight has to be cost effective. It almost certainly requires re-usabilty. Nowadays, SpaceX and Blue Origin are doing far more important research and actual development than NASA is. Thank you NASA for all the core technologies you've developed. But now that you have become hostage to congress and massive pork spending, and focused on creating massively uneconomic systems like the SLS, please get out of the way.

Re: NASA admits it doesn’t have the funding to land humans on Mars

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, you are saying if you take a massive pile of money to hire a bunch of the smartest engineers away from private companies and pay them to solve problems, they'll do it? And if NASA didn't exist, and these engineers instead worked for less bureaucratic, more entrepreneurial businesses, they'd invent nothing?

> hire a bunch of the smartest engineers away from private companies There would be no hiring away. That's not how the government works. They'd contract the private companies the engineers already work at.

If NASA hires a bunch of private companies to build the subsystems for the SLS, they are hiring engineers away from Blue Origin, SpaceX, ULA, etc. Those engineers may not work for NASA, or have worked at SpaceX, etc, but it's the same end.

And the SLS is a boondoggle, so the efforts of those engineers will be totally wasted.

Re: NASA admits it doesn’t have the funding to land humans on Mars

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NASAs manned space efforts have devolved into a scam to divert funds into the state of Alabama. It literally can't build any manned space systems unless they are gold plated and cost 20 times what they should.

The question should be, would you rather your tax dollars go towards a War machine? Or supporting the move of intelligent people to 3rd world Alabama to hopefully balance out the crazies and racists?

I'd rather NASA cancel the SLS instead of spend $2B per launch, when they can then go ahead and contract with SpaceX and Blue Origin to launch similar vehicles for less than $200M per launch.

Re: NASA admits it doesn’t have the funding to land humans on Mars

#316
If NASA built their manned space program around the SpaceX Falcon Heavy and Blue Origin New Glenn (and future uprated versions of both), they could start launching crewed vehicles into deep space next year at less than 1/10 the cost of the SLS that won't be launching humans for at least 4 years.

It's not just that they have been held hostage by congress to build the SLS as a pork delivery service. They've also become risk averse. The Saturn V was built with "all up" testing, rushed to testing a completed rocket instead of focusing on component testing. They only flew two Saturn V unmanned missions before they launched one with men on it. Today, SpaceX has launched the Falcon 9 over 20 times, and has a capsule with the safest abort mode ever, and NASA still hasn't man-rated it.

NASA could take a fraction of the money they are spending on the SLS, and start doing monthly deep space launches by the end of next year. They could use 140,000 lb capacity Falcon Heavies and Dragon Capsules to do lunar missions. They could put astronauts back on the moon, build a constantly manned moon base, develop and test rovers and other equipment they want to use on mars.

Astronauts would be lined up to volunteer, even if the Falcon Heavy only has unmanned two test flights. They are far more rational judges of what the safety levels should be than the PR department at NASA.

Then within a few more years, NASA could shift to doing Mars missions when SpaceX and Blue Origin or anyone else can start giving them 300,000+ lb cargo capacity launches for less than $1,000/lb. At that price again they could average a dozen or two dozen launches a year. All that launch capacity would enable them to launch a group of Aldrin Cyclers to provide regular transport to mars and back with heavy radiation shielding, supply storage and room for big crews. Other robot launches can pre-cache supplies, equipment and return fuel on Mars.

But they can never do it using the SLS path. It's going to start off costing near $20,000 per lb for LEO access, and even the later versions will still cost over $10,000 per lb. That just makes Mars missions almost economically impossible. The SLS could only do an Apollo style program, where a decade from now they launch a handful of all-in-one missions (two orbiters, a couple that land) before congress wilts under the enormous costs.

Re: NASA admits it doesn’t have the funding to land humans on Mars

#317
post #310

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For me it is all about the world building, the practicalness of the universe presented. Dune had a decade of planning go into it before the first book was written. The rest did not have that amount of background effort and it shows. After the first book it all feels like he's making it up as he goes along, instead of drawing on an encyclopedia. Children of Dune had the most egregious problem with this. Trying here to…

I hear what you're saying. I'm gradually arriving at a model of "good book" that includes what a person's particular transgressions of suspensions of disbelief are, and what degree is required to trigger them. For me, the biggest things are currently "must be at least this hard sci-fi" and "must have believably human characters." It sounds like one of yours is "must have book-spanning world-building." Which I get, bu…

Maybe world building is the wrong term? I consider civilizations, economics, infrastructure, etc, as another character in the story. They have background and develop over time. They should be as believable as the humans. This is common in the "future history" sub-genre but you find unexpected gems too. Discworld was remarkably good about it, for example.

Just found my copy of Ender's, one of the few OSC books I still have. I got the proportions very wrong. The story was "over" on page 295 of 324. So like 9%, the entire last chapter, was about the aftermath. Mostly Ender dealing with what happened. Still way more than the usual "happily ever after" and sequel hook you normally see, to give it credit.

The Honorverse is the purest of space opera. I have too many good memories to agree with you, but I won't push my luck with a re-reading. I seem to recall that it actually was pretty good at having their magic super weapons, drives and shields progress reasonably over the series. Weber was very good about having military tactics shift in step with the technology.

Re: NASA admits it doesn’t have the funding to land humans on Mars

#318
post #301

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Exactly. I can't think of many wars where the belligerents were really different from each other. American Civil War: many were actual relatives! ("brother vs. brother") WWI: English are descended from Germanic tribes, French are closely related to Germans too. WWII: Same as WWI mainly; Italians aren't very different from French/English/Americans. Americans/Japanese were a pretty big difference though. But Japanese/C…

> The people who promote wars frequently try to cast the enemy as alien, in order to rile up support for the war and to get soldiers to participate. I'd argue that the cultural perception of the belligerent humans towards their targets is far more important than objective differences. And you and parent are certainly being overly-reductive compared to the context of the times. What would a 1930s German have said abou…

My point was as a direct counter to your assertion that warfare increases with degree of difference between peoples.

That would predict that the Germans would prefer to ally with other Europeans against people like the Japanese, who they are maximally different from. Historically this did not happen. Yes, there are clear conflicts between each of the groups named, but they are more similar to each other than they are to most other populations of humans.

Let's say an alien combat spacecraft crash-lands in the middle of ISIS-controlled territory. Would you expect ISIS to immediately declare a cease-fire and surrender the craft and its weaponry to the UN so that humanity can work together to face this new threat, or do you think they would immediately go about using it as a tool to better murder their fellow humans?

Re: NASA admits it doesn’t have the funding to land humans on Mars

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I thought you (or the other people reading this thread) might be interested in how asteroids behave in the real world. I wasn't saying that's what was happening in the show.

I didn't mean to come off sounding so harsh. YORP is fascinating stuff, particularly when it can happen to such an extreme degree to make a stable asteroid break up.

I find YORP interesting because it makes things change in a part of the solar system that otherwise might be pretty boring... a lot more interesting than slowly outgassing volatiles and maybe an occasional collision.

Re: NASA admits it doesn’t have the funding to land humans on Mars

#320
post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The people who promote wars frequently try to cast the enemy as alien, in order to rile up support for the war and to get soldiers to participate. I'd argue that the cultural perception of the belligerent humans towards their targets is far more important than objective differences. And you and parent are certainly being overly-reductive compared to the context of the times. What would a 1930s German have said abou…

My point was as a direct counter to your assertion that warfare increases with degree of difference between peoples. That would predict that the Germans would prefer to ally with other Europeans against people like the Japanese, who they are maximally different from. Historically this did not happen. Yes, there are clear conflicts between each of the groups named, but they are more similar to each other than they are…

Both of your statements are straw men.

If you're proceeding purely from history, it's not supportive to say that armies on opposite sides of the world fight each other more rarely than armies next to each other.

A more apt test of my assertion would be the frequency with which civil wars (excluding cross-ethnic wars in poly-ethnic societies) are initiated vs non-civil wars (allowing for the variance caused by internal policing, international politics, etc).

Just because Poles and Germans are similar to you doesn't mean they're similar to each other.

On the latter, I'd prefer a more fair: ISIS and a non-ISIS armed force are engaged in a firefight. An alien ship crash lands and disembarks five non-humanoid aliens. These aliens immediately begin shooting at both parties. What happens?

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