Things to know about the A68 iceberg
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Things to know about the A68 iceberg
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Re: Things to know about the A68 iceberg
#2TLDR:
The calving of the 1.1 trillon ton ice berg (2x amount of water used in the US each year) marks the end of a decades long splintering, first seen by satellites in the 1960s.
1. What's next? It will drift north along the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, then northeast into the south Atlantic Ocean. Likely no threat to ships navigating the area. Can take months to splinter apart.
2. Is this climate change? Calving is a natural process and Antarctica is not breaking apart, but climate change can't be ruled out.
3. What does it mean for Antarctica? Not much on its own, but could be a signal that other major changes are on the way. Paying attention to the Thwaites Glacier, which could raise sea levels 10 feet if it collapses.
4. Will it make the oceans rise? barely (0.1 mm)
5. Politics: The calving was barely noticed on Capitol Hill, which is distracted by a bitter health care debate, federal budget bills, and the controversy surrounding President Trump and Russia.
P.S.: Read the full article -- it's worth it and has interesting illustrations showing the scale of the event.
Re: Things to know about the A68 iceberg
#3I think this advice which is in all reports of this event is quite tenuous:
"The calving of icebergs is a natural process. ... as news of the calving spread, many researchers were careful to note that they were not chalking it up to global warming."
The falling of trees is a natural process but when they fall in a storm we don't often say to not chalk it up to the storm.
Re: Things to know about the A68 iceberg
#4I think this advice which is in all reports of this event is quite tenuous: "The calving of icebergs is a natural process. ... as news of the calving spread, many researchers were careful to note that they were not chalking it up to global warming." The falling of trees is a natural process but when they fall in a storm we don't often say to not chalk it up to the storm.
People tend to blame the last straw for breaking the camel's back, but each individual straw shares equal responsibility.
When a tree falls, the rain that loosened the soil around the roots, the wind that pushed upon the end of the trunk-lever, and the beetle that damaged the bark such that the tree became less flexible are all responsible.
When it comes to icebergs calving from glaciers, warming is a contributing factor, but so is a snowfall upon the glacier further up the slope. Ice above pushes ice below away from the support of land, and like many crystalline minerals, water-ice has far less strength under tension than it has under compression.
Re: Things to know about the A68 iceberg
#5I think this advice which is in all reports of this event is quite tenuous: "The calving of icebergs is a natural process. ... as news of the calving spread, many researchers were careful to note that they were not chalking it up to global warming." The falling of trees is a natural process but when they fall in a storm we don't often say to not chalk it up to the storm.
If an iceberg falls in the forest, does it make a sound until someone politicizes it?
Re: Things to know about the A68 iceberg
#6TLDR: The calving of the 1.1 trillon ton ice berg (2x amount of water used in the US each year) marks the end of a decades long splintering, first seen by satellites in the 1960s. 1. What's next? It will drift north along the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, then northeast into the south Atlantic Ocean. Likely no threat to ships navigating the area. Can take months to splinter apart. 2. Is this climate change? Calvi…
Thank you. You actually make me want to read it
Re: Things to know about the A68 iceberg
#7I think this advice which is in all reports of this event is quite tenuous: "The calving of icebergs is a natural process. ... as news of the calving spread, many researchers were careful to note that they were not chalking it up to global warming." The falling of trees is a natural process but when they fall in a storm we don't often say to not chalk it up to the storm.
We don't have long enough experience with ice shelves to know what their baseline behavior is. And the effects of global warming in the Antarctic are less straightforward than in the Arctic. For example, winter sea ice extent there is increasing, not decreasing.
Re: Things to know about the A68 iceberg
#8I think this advice which is in all reports of this event is quite tenuous: "The calving of icebergs is a natural process. ... as news of the calving spread, many researchers were careful to note that they were not chalking it up to global warming." The falling of trees is a natural process but when they fall in a storm we don't often say to not chalk it up to the storm.
We don't have long enough experience with ice shelves to know what their baseline behavior is. And the effects of global warming in the Antarctic are less straightforward than in the Arctic. For example, winter sea ice extent there is increasing, not decreasing.
As I understand it - the sea ice extent is a quite different matter being thin and regenerating yearly. These lost iceshelves (including Larsen B in 2001) were hundreds of meters thick.
I wonder what age these shelves were and what a sustainable rate of such events would be. Without seeing such information I dont trust general statements on the events meaning.
As another massive iceshelf breaks off - it really looks like an event which we could connect with more for these environmentally crucial times.
Re: Things to know about the A68 iceberg
#9TLDR: The calving of the 1.1 trillon ton ice berg (2x amount of water used in the US each year) marks the end of a decades long splintering, first seen by satellites in the 1960s. 1. What's next? It will drift north along the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, then northeast into the south Atlantic Ocean. Likely no threat to ships navigating the area. Can take months to splinter apart. 2. Is this climate change? Calvi…
>"2. Is this climate change? Calving is a natural process and Antarctica is not breaking apart, but climate change can't be ruled out."
"Climate change" doesn't make specific enough predictions about this type of stuff to ever be ruled out, people could just keep coming up with ideas about X indefinitely:
Climate Change -> X -> Larsen C rift
At the same time I find it totally implausible that there is zero link between this event (or anything else that happens on earth) and the climate. So "no link" should be taken as shorthand "any influence due to climate change is a negligible factor".
Also, it is clear to me from reading the news and comments about this event that many people really, really want this to be linked to climate change. It is to the point that cognitive dissonance ensues when it is pointed out the experts are in disagreement with them. That is unhealthy.
Re: Things to know about the A68 iceberg
#10TLDR: The calving of the 1.1 trillon ton ice berg (2x amount of water used in the US each year) marks the end of a decades long splintering, first seen by satellites in the 1960s. 1. What's next? It will drift north along the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, then northeast into the south Atlantic Ocean. Likely no threat to ships navigating the area. Can take months to splinter apart. 2. Is this climate change? Calvi…
> Calving is a natural process and Antarctica is not breaking apart, but climate change can't be ruled out.
This is science's inherent weakness in the public eye: the pundits on both sides will make conclusive statements based on little data; the scientists, with all the data we have, only speak in chances, odds, and percentages.
It's not their fault, it's the correct way to speak. But both sides will spin this to suit their agenda, for better or worse, and continue to muddy the waters.