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Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

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Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#41

Post by _ptgt »

boomboomsubban wrote: post #28
_ptgt wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not going to take the time to find the link, but it's been reported in the WSJ that even Obama (who is presumably more dovish than Trump) said he would order strikes on NK if it was possible to do so without risk to Seoul. It seems unlikely Obama was willing to risk war with China over NK during his term

That's likely true for some sort of missile strike, but a missile strike also doesn't remove the problem. Even in the event we killed Kim in a strike, the replacement would be unlikely to be western friendly. This discussion is about "going in," which I take to mean an invasion. Any invasion attempt would start with the understanding that Seoul is going to look like London after the blitz at best.

The point of the strike would be to destroy threats to Seoul prior to an invasion (i.e. removing the obstacle). As even you noted, the US wouldn't strike and wait as that creates more problems than it solves.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#42

Post by thephyber »

Endama wrote: post #3

As a Korean American, this conflict has always been so strange to me. My family members fought in this war, my grandfather ran from his village, in the middle of the night, to join the US-led Korean Army so that he wouldn't be conscripted by NK as they moved south. My mom's father joined as an intelligence officer and later continued on to work in the middle east for the US gov. That left his wife (my grandmother) to…

The observation that native S Koreans are unaffected by the threat and US S Koreans are stimulated by it is interesting.

My observation is that we tend to remember the oversimplified ends of the spectrum and that almost everyone exists more in the gray area between the poles.

It's likely that those who live in S Korea are used to hearing many small nuggets of news about the N Korean conflict, so they are desensitized by it. The US news gives N Korea very little time in the headlines except during the occasional announcement when they did something dramatic, which trains Americans to think that everything N Korea does is dramatic. Also, the US doesn't have television shows that treat N Koreans (defectors) as humans -- we only have shows that talk about N Korea in the context of spies, military, or some other aggressive/nefarious way.

> the narrative I hear is of doom and gloom, NK is just weeks, if not hours, away from nuking me in SF

Where do you think this narrative comes from? The US corporate media companies push that because it's a juicy news story (even if there's nothing "new" about it). The DoD and State Department also manage to coordinate their their message when appearing on news shows -- through current and former military / intelligence leaders. It's not something I interpret as an organic feeling that the average person has. People on the street still talk about Trump, the economy / stock market -- not so much about NKorea or KJU.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#43

Post by boomboomsubban »

yladiz wrote: post #37
boomboomsubban wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Losing the buffer state would be seen as a direct threat on their land and people, and the UN would be powerless in a conflict between two security council members. Strong trading ties doesn't stop war. This is one of the largest lessons of WWI, and why an isolationist leader of the US is terrifying. It's sold as putting America first, but its scarily similar to the mad dash for guaranteed access to necessary resourc…

Are you joking? I know that China and USA do not have one, but there hasn't been a single conflict with any country that has a free trade agreement since WW2. Also, understand that the US has the backing (and mutual defect agreements) of South Korea, Japan, and NATO, and India would possibly join in a conflict against China as well. China wouldn't want a US backed state on its doorstep, but it would not want war agai…

There hasn't been a true war between great powers since WWII, and that's more likely due to nuclear bombs than free trade agreements.

Mutual defense agreements don't matter if the US invades North Korea, the US is not the defensive party in the war. And it's easy to say that all of these sides would back the US now, an aggressive war in the region could change a lot of alliances.

Invading North Korea is not a sane option for the US unless China consents. The best case scenario sees China allowing it while preparing for a future conflict, and all out war is very possible.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#44

Post by thephyber »

yongjik wrote: post #40
Endama wrote: post #3

As a Korean American, this conflict has always been so strange to me. My family members fought in this war, my grandfather ran from his village, in the middle of the night, to join the US-led Korean Army so that he wouldn't be conscripted by NK as they moved south. My mom's father joined as an intelligence officer and later continued on to work in the middle east for the US gov. That left his wife (my grandmother) to…

As a South Korean currently living in the US, let me add my perspective: 1. North Korea ceased to be an "existential threat" to South Korea a very long time ago. According to Wikipedia, South Korea's GDP is 1.4466 trillion USD; North Korea's is estimated to be 25 billion USD. That's a factor of 58. For comparison, USA's GDP is 17.95 trillion USD. Cuba's is 77.15 billion USD. That's a factor of 233. So, see how much A…

I largely agree with you, except

> he has a lot to gain by looking like a crazy, unstable dictator who could start a war any day: North Korea is the master of this mode of "crazy diplomacy".

I agree that KJU is acting and he is doing it for self-preservation reasons, but we also have a president that seems to want to try and play the same "unstable, wildcard" foreign policy.

> America does not like having such a "rogue" nation with a nuclear missile that can hit San Francisco

I'm not sure red states would mind that much if San Francisco were gone.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#45

Post by virtuabhi »

suhlash wrote: post #26

It is all about national security for China. China will not tolerate a unified Korea that is friendly to America. It is in China's interest to keep the Koreas divided and have influence over NK. NK not only provides a buffer from the US army but serves as a threat that ties up the military of USA, Japan and SK. Kind of like the way they use Pakistan to tie down India. Why would China help out and do a real sanction o…

I agree with your comments. But who knows, maybe one day China will decide that it should be a force for good in the world rather than a regional bully. Thankfully, the one-party-one-leader system of China allows for quick change in its policies. And regarding what is in it for China? A peaceful, democratic, free country is in the interest of every person in the world.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#46

Post by boomboomsubban »

_ptgt wrote: post #39
boomboomsubban wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has went to war with the US over North Korea before, at a time where they didn't even have a nuclear option. Saying things won't happen due to economic and military losses is the exact rhetoric you heard before WWI and a WWII.

China very nearly didn't go into the Korean war, and was betting on getting support from the Soviets when they did. Furthermore, the US wasn't under direct threat in the Korean war and was war weary from WW2. A new Korean war would likely have a more invested US, no outside help (except potentially on the US side), and a China with worse relations with NK. In addition, the primary fear for the CCP was that the US wou…

You are much more confident than I that no one would help an attacked China via North Korea and that the US would never march on Beijing for a third (fourth? Not sure how many US troops were involved in the Opium Wars) time. Both things seem very possible in a world where the US invades an ally of China.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#47

Post by owebmaster »

azernik wrote: post #34
ourmandave wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The North Korean threat is all bluster, no action. Nothing is ever going to happen. All that bluster is a very dangerous game and I don't understand why Kim plays it. It would be Mutually Assured Destruction without the Mutually, unless China joined in. My thought is he wants The Bomb so he doesn't go the way of Sadam, Gaddafi, or Noriega if he's considered "no longer useful." I think we're on a very short path to a…

Because the confrontation, and the perception of strength, is essential to the regime's legitimacy.

Which regime? South Korean, North Korean, Chinese or American?

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#48

Post by testores »

virtuabhi wrote: post #45
suhlash wrote: post #26

It is all about national security for China. China will not tolerate a unified Korea that is friendly to America. It is in China's interest to keep the Koreas divided and have influence over NK. NK not only provides a buffer from the US army but serves as a threat that ties up the military of USA, Japan and SK. Kind of like the way they use Pakistan to tie down India. Why would China help out and do a real sanction o…

I agree with your comments. But who knows, maybe one day China will decide that it should be a force for good in the world rather than a regional bully. Thankfully, the one-party-one-leader system of China allows for quick change in its policies. And regarding what is in it for China? A peaceful, democratic, free country is in the interest of every person in the world.

There is no good or bad in politics. Just interests.

If there really were "good countries," then Saudi Arabia would not be getting any support.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#49

Post by testores »

Terr_ wrote: post #31

Attempted TLDR: China tolerates North Korea because NK acknowledges that China's the big boss in the region, and restricts most of its bad behavior to places where China doesn't have to care. If the US seeks to "pressure" China into reigning in North Korea, it'll backfire, because that threatens the air of authority that China was trying to get in the first place. Lastly, China doesn't want a unified Korea which is i…

It's like when you decide to do something, but then someone else nags you to do it and you lose all interest.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#50

Post by RugnirViking »

_ptgt wrote: post #41
boomboomsubban wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's likely true for some sort of missile strike, but a missile strike also doesn't remove the problem. Even in the event we killed Kim in a strike, the replacement would be unlikely to be western friendly. This discussion is about "going in," which I take to mean an invasion. Any invasion attempt would start with the understanding that Seoul is going to look like London after the blitz at best.

The point of the strike would be to destroy threats to Seoul prior to an invasion (i.e. removing the obstacle). As even you noted, the US wouldn't strike and wait as that creates more problems than it solves.

The threat to Seoul is mobile artillery near the border. It doesn't even have to be cruise missiles on anything like that; Seoul is close enough to the border that indiscriminate shelling at the city is probable

Mobile artillery is a very difficult problem to remove all with one strike, because it is mobile for the precise reason that its difficult to know where they all are. That's why many nuclear missiles have been deployed on trucks, so that they can be stationed in remote areas and moved at a moments notice, similarly to submarines

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