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Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

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Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#21

Post by owebmaster »

komali2 wrote: post #12
Endama wrote: post #3

As a Korean American, this conflict has always been so strange to me. My family members fought in this war, my grandfather ran from his village, in the middle of the night, to join the US-led Korean Army so that he wouldn't be conscripted by NK as they moved south. My mom's father joined as an intelligence officer and later continued on to work in the middle east for the US gov. That left his wife (my grandmother) to…

Hah, I wonder if you're my coworker, we just had this argument during lunch today (about whether NK missiles are a threat to us in Mountain View). >What I hear from my native-born Korean friends is a lot of nonchalance. The NK threat is all bluster, no action. Nothing is ever going to happen. I remember this from my time living in Japan and Taiwan - everyone was convinced NK was not a threat because it hadn't been...…

Sometimes a turning point happens and something that looked unreal becomes real. Look at Libya and Syria from 10 years ago and today. Most people there probably didn't see it coming, and most still don't understand why did it happened.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#22

Post by boomboomsubban »

_ptgt wrote: post #17
boomboomsubban wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US can't go in without either a direct act of war by North Korea or a UN resolution, anything else would allow China to declare war and that would be the US start of WWIII. Removing Kim would just provoke a new round of discussion about a unified Korea an China loosening control over Burma and other areas. They would be a five minute hero with negative long term results.

This is a pretty big misunderstanding of the situation imo. The reason the US won't directly strike NK is because of the risk to Seoul. It has nothing to do the UN (which is essentially a useless and meaningless body at this point, as Russia and China don't agree with the West on almost literally anything). Moreover, China isn't going to risk a war with the US over NK.

Yes, China would take an invasion of a bordering ally as an act of war on them. It wouldn't be a risk of war, it would be the US declaring war on China, and much of the world's favor would go to the defender.

And yeah, the UN resolution is incredibly unlikely. That's why it would work, if China consented to the move it wouldn't trigger WWIII.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#23

Post by owebmaster »

ourmandave wrote: post #20
Endama wrote: post #3

As a Korean American, this conflict has always been so strange to me. My family members fought in this war, my grandfather ran from his village, in the middle of the night, to join the US-led Korean Army so that he wouldn't be conscripted by NK as they moved south. My mom's father joined as an intelligence officer and later continued on to work in the middle east for the US gov. That left his wife (my grandmother) to…

The North Korean threat is all bluster, no action. Nothing is ever going to happen. All that bluster is a very dangerous game and I don't understand why Kim plays it. It would be Mutually Assured Destruction without the Mutually, unless China joined in. My thought is he wants The Bomb so he doesn't go the way of Sadam, Gaddafi, or Noriega if he's considered "no longer useful." I think we're on a very short path to a…

> All that bluster is a very dangerous game and I don't understand why Kim plays it.

It is not difficult to understand. They consider the US and South Korea a threat to their existence and, as you pointed out, he doesn't want to finish like Saddam and Gaddafi and NK the new Iraq or Libya.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#24

Post by _ptgt »

vkou wrote: post #19
_ptgt wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a pretty big misunderstanding of the situation imo. The reason the US won't directly strike NK is because of the risk to Seoul. It has nothing to do the UN (which is essentially a useless and meaningless body at this point, as Russia and China don't agree with the West on almost literally anything). Moreover, China isn't going to risk a war with the US over NK.

The United States risked a nuclear war with the USSR over Cuba. What makes you 100% certain that China won't risk a war over North Korea? North Korea is an important buffer state for China.

The US was facing a direct nuclear threat. Risking nuclear war with the USSR was hardly an escalation. Also, there's a large difference between "risking"and "acting."

China has much more to lose than gain (economically and militarily) by warring with the US over NK.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#25

Post by _ptgt »

boomboomsubban wrote: post #22
_ptgt wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a pretty big misunderstanding of the situation imo. The reason the US won't directly strike NK is because of the risk to Seoul. It has nothing to do the UN (which is essentially a useless and meaningless body at this point, as Russia and China don't agree with the West on almost literally anything). Moreover, China isn't going to risk a war with the US over NK.

Yes, China would take an invasion of a bordering ally as an act of war on them. It wouldn't be a risk of war, it would be the US declaring war on China, and much of the world's favor would go to the defender. And yeah, the UN resolution is incredibly unlikely. That's why it would work, if China consented to the move it wouldn't trigger WWIII.

I'm not going to take the time to find the link, but it's been reported in the WSJ that even Obama (who is presumably more dovish than Trump) said he would order strikes on NK if it was possible to do so without risk to Seoul. It seems unlikely Obama was willing to risk war with China over NK during his term

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#26

Post by suhlash »

It is all about national security for China. China will not tolerate a unified Korea that is friendly to America. It is in China's interest to keep the Koreas divided and have influence over NK. NK not only provides a buffer from the US army but serves as a threat that ties up the military of USA, Japan and SK. Kind of like the way they use Pakistan to tie down India. Why would China help out and do a real sanction of NK. A real sanction of NK by cutting off food and fuel would collapse the regime. Followed by a unification under South Korean leadership. The last thing they want. China will continue to pretend to sanction NK or say that they have no influence over NK. Always ask what is in it for China to figure out what is going on.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#27

Post by vkou »

_ptgt wrote: post #24
vkou wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The United States risked a nuclear war with the USSR over Cuba. What makes you 100% certain that China won't risk a war over North Korea? North Korea is an important buffer state for China.

The US was facing a direct nuclear threat. Risking nuclear war with the USSR was hardly an escalation. Also, there's a large difference between "risking"and "acting." China has much more to lose than gain (economically and militarily) by warring with the US over NK.

Serious wars between evenly-matched participants always result in said participants losing more then they gain. Somehow, though, we never learn from history.

If the US invaded North Korea, and China did nothing, it would be the equivalent of China invading Canada and Mexico, and the United States doing nothing but issuing nasty diplomatic protests. Even if it did not threaten its interests directly, the loss of face would be immense. Wars have been started over far less.

Have you forgotten how half of the US government wanted war with Russia over Crimea? A little Ukranian province, on the other side of the world? Completely insignificant to US interests?

Compared to the Crimean war, unilaterally invading North Korea is like striking a match in a gunpowder factory. I'm sure that the fools who will authorize and cheerlead it will not for one moment think that it will turn nuclear.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#28

Post by boomboomsubban »

_ptgt wrote: post #25
boomboomsubban wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, China would take an invasion of a bordering ally as an act of war on them. It wouldn't be a risk of war, it would be the US declaring war on China, and much of the world's favor would go to the defender. And yeah, the UN resolution is incredibly unlikely. That's why it would work, if China consented to the move it wouldn't trigger WWIII.

I'm not going to take the time to find the link, but it's been reported in the WSJ that even Obama (who is presumably more dovish than Trump) said he would order strikes on NK if it was possible to do so without risk to Seoul. It seems unlikely Obama was willing to risk war with China over NK during his term

That's likely true for some sort of missile strike, but a missile strike also doesn't remove the problem. Even in the event we killed Kim in a strike, the replacement would be unlikely to be western friendly.

This discussion is about "going in," which I take to mean an invasion. Any invasion attempt would start with the understanding that Seoul is going to look like London after the blitz at best.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#29

Post by yladiz »

boomboomsubban wrote: post #22
_ptgt wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a pretty big misunderstanding of the situation imo. The reason the US won't directly strike NK is because of the risk to Seoul. It has nothing to do the UN (which is essentially a useless and meaningless body at this point, as Russia and China don't agree with the West on almost literally anything). Moreover, China isn't going to risk a war with the US over NK.

Yes, China would take an invasion of a bordering ally as an act of war on them. It wouldn't be a risk of war, it would be the US declaring war on China, and much of the world's favor would go to the defender. And yeah, the UN resolution is incredibly unlikely. That's why it would work, if China consented to the move it wouldn't trigger WWIII.

No it wouldn't, because China doesn't really consider NK an ally worth fighting over, especially against USA, because unlike with NK China and USA are very strong trading partners. Of course China strongly prefers a buffer between South Korea and itself, but if some action did happen, likely China would just not participate in the war and then help with the cleanup and new government since they are a border state and would require any UN resolution to have compromises. The only way China would get involved is if it involved or risked their land or people, not NK.

Re: Why Won’t China Help with North Korea? Remember 1956

#30

Post by boomboomsubban »

_ptgt wrote: post #24
vkou wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The United States risked a nuclear war with the USSR over Cuba. What makes you 100% certain that China won't risk a war over North Korea? North Korea is an important buffer state for China.

The US was facing a direct nuclear threat. Risking nuclear war with the USSR was hardly an escalation. Also, there's a large difference between "risking"and "acting." China has much more to lose than gain (economically and militarily) by warring with the US over NK.

China has went to war with the US over North Korea before, at a time where they didn't even have a nuclear option. Saying things won't happen due to economic and military losses is the exact rhetoric you heard before WWI and a WWII.
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