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SFO near miss might have triggered aviation disaster

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Re: SFO near miss might have triggered aviation disaster

#251

Before crying pilot error, we must all read Sydney Dekker's A Field Giude to Understading "Human Error" (and fully appreciate why he uses those quotes). Don't immediately assign blame to the sharp end. Take a look at the blunt one first. Most likely not a pilot error. Assigning blame is a very human need, but assigning it to the most visible and accessible part is almost always wrong.

I can't imagine any scenario where this is not pilot error (unless you had a power failure of the airport lighting systems).

Re: SFO near miss might have triggered aviation disaster

#252
post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> WTF? Looking forward to reading the investigation results. I'm not an expert, but given what you said, I suppose it'll just end up equating to "Human error. Happens."

I suggest you read ntsb investigations of some major commercial aviation events like this. It is never just "human error. Happens." They are always full of excellent recommendations, points of failure, etc.

I agree. Check out the NTSB report[1] for the crash into a neighborhood in Queens[2]. 200-odd pages of very sober, rational (and interesting) discussion of how a pilot ended up snapping the vertical stabilizer off an A300. There are many factors leading up to what ends up being summarized as pilot error.

[1] https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Airlines_Flight_587

Re: SFO near miss might have triggered aviation disaster

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the pilot is almost never looking at a map on final approach. He is looking out the window, and in the dawn/dusk light, or with a setting sun in the background or inclement weather etc., a taxiway can look exactly like a runway. Don't forget that almost all taxiways run parallel to the runway, for about the same length. (NB: I used to be a commercial pilot.) In most airports I flew into, the surface material…

Thank you! That raises the question, (a) why is there no kind of warning system for when you're about to land on the wrong runway (there's a GPS system in the aircraft that knows where you're going, right?) and (b) why is the pilot (or at least co-pilot) never looking at a map on final approach? Is it really that dangerous for anyone to take a quick glance?

It would be like looking at a map of California and expect to be able to get around San Francisco - the aeronautical charts are generally for long haul navigation purposes. There are approach plates for instrument landings, but for landing there you'd be looking at your instruments, which you've dialed into the correct runway, not the plate, in order to land the plane. In this situation, however, I can only imagine the pilot was on visual approach because otherwise the plane wouldn't have been lined up to land on the taxi way.

Re: SFO near miss might have triggered aviation disaster

#254
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SFO is said to be a somewhat abnormal/difficult approach [0]. This could cause stress and fractured attention in the pilot. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that there was some other complicating factor. Planes don't usually crash (or nearly crash) without several safety factors being breached. 0: https://jethead.wordpress.com/2013/07/09/how-do-you-land-at-...

When the Asiana flight 214 crash landed in SFO in 2013, there was a blog post from a pilot who claimed to be a Lufthansa Air pilot. He wrote that because of city of San Francisco's unusually stringent noise mitigation rule for airliners flying over the city to land at the SFO airport, an airliner has to make a very steep descent from an altitude higher than normal. So instead of bringing down an airliner gradually, a…

that's only in the (quite rare) case that the wind is coming from the south and the planes are coming in over Daly City .... normally planes land in the other direction and (like the Asiana flight) come in over the Bay.

They do however take off over a lot of homes in Daly City and are required to fly a flight plan that seems to postpone a lot of their climb until they are out over the Pacific

Re: SFO near miss might have triggered aviation disaster

#255
post #101

There's an mp3 of the radio chatter here: https://forums.liveatc.net/atcaviation-audio-clips/7-july-ks... > Audio from the air traffic controller communication archived by a user on LiveATC.net and reviewed by this newspaper organization showed how a the confused Air Canada pilot asks if he’s clear to land on 28R because he sees lights on the runway. > “There’s no one on 28R but you,” the air controller responds. > A…

Those fixed wings people are unflappable.

You monster.

Re: SFO near miss might have triggered aviation disaster

#256
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When flying visually (VFR), taxiway lighting and runway lighting are visually very different. Taxiway lighting is almost always blue, whereas runway lighting is white (with any displaced threshold marked with red lights). In daylight, the markings on the runway are unmistakably different. I'm not instrument rated but my understanding is that with ILS, instrument approaches can handle multiple parallel runways precise…

So many people use 'begs the question' as 'raises the question' now that it's a valid meaning for the phrase. EDIT: To the downvoters: I don't think you understand how human language works.

Does not something wrong enough times doesn’t make it correct.

For example using “because” without a preposition doesn’t become correct just because Buzzfeed makes it popular.

People make grammar/useage mistakes not because they consciously want to change the language but because they don’t know any differently. It’s quite different than how slang enters a language. Begs vs. raises the question isn’t some kind of colloquial thing, it’s just a misuse. I get things wrong when the language frequently enough, but when it’s pointed out, I don’t continue doing it; in fact, I am happy for the opportunity to increase my precision with the language.

Re: SFO near miss might have triggered aviation disaster

#257
post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the pilot is almost never looking at a map on final approach. He is looking out the window, and in the dawn/dusk light, or with a setting sun in the background or inclement weather etc., a taxiway can look exactly like a runway. Don't forget that almost all taxiways run parallel to the runway, for about the same length. (NB: I used to be a commercial pilot.) In most airports I flew into, the surface material…

Side question: do you think one day commercial pilots aren't necessary anymore, i.e. totally unmanned commercial airlines? If so, how far away in the future are they?

There has been some talk of remote piloting (like drones,) but personally, I want whoever is flying the plane to have some skin in the game. Unmanned - fully autopilot aircraft are certainly possible and I sure Boeing probably has a Skunkworks looking into it, but I’ve seen enough source code over the years that I would have a hard time trusting an autonomous airplane unless they had escape pods. Autonomous airplanes seen to be solving a problem that doesn’t seem critical to solve – given the statistically exceptional safety record of commercial air travel. Pilot error is a very rare cause of airliner crashes.

I think electric airplanes powered by Mr. Fusion mini nuclear reactors would be the future I’d like to see!

Re: SFO near miss might have triggered aviation disaster

#258
post #176

English is not my native language, but shouldn't the headline have read "SFO near miss would have triggered aviation disaster"? "Might" seems to indicate that something else happened afterwards as a possible result of the near miss

the problem is that while Could is technically preferable to Might in this situation for exactly this reason, the proper distinguishing between the two conditions has long been vague.

People will often use Could have when they mean might have.

To be accurately and unambiguously understood by everyone it should be SFO near miss could have triggered aviation disaster but didn't. Since the completely unambiguous phrasing is not very elegant then Could have would be preferable, but with the understanding that for some people it will still have some ambiguity that needs resolving by actually reading the article.

Re: SFO near miss might have triggered aviation disaster

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is facilitated by the fact that in some airports, taxiways and runways are similar and sometimes even used interchangeably (!), i.e. a runway may be remarked as taxiway and vice versa. So it's not 'how can he be so dumb' moment, in some case you have no way to tell the difference unless you just know.

It’s SFO though. And he’s an airline captain, so he should know.

The absolutely stellar safety record of the airline industry exists because they have repeatedly and consistent pushed past human error as an explanation for a crash.

Understanding that if a human made this mistake, another future human will likely make the exact same mistake, they push to understand _why_ an airline captain that should know made this error. Then try to correct for that.

If every crash was written off as "the captain should have known better", aviation would not be nearly as safe as it is.

Re: SFO near miss might have triggered aviation disaster

#260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay so let me get this straight: you're telling me that passenger airplanes currently fly by dead reckoning or stellar navigation or ground-based triangulation or something else? When a pilot doesn't know where he is, he doesn't have any kind of certified GPS-based system handy to tell him? And moreover, even beyond GPS: how the hell can a plane's navigation system be capable of (and certified for!) landing the mons…

Automatic landing systems rely on ground support by way of microwave signals from transmitters installed near autoland-capable runways. There's no general position information, and the airborne part of the system can't operate independently of the part on the ground. Civilian GPS signals are limited in terms of position accuracy, too. I believe the CEP is ten meters. That's not bad, but it's not good enough to land a…

Thanks for the detailed response.

> Automatic landing systems rely on ground support by way of microwave signals from transmitters installed near autoland-capable runways. There's no general position information, and the airborne part of the system can't operate independently of the part on the ground.

Yes, I understand the landing portion has other kinds of support. However, I don't understand how it can not have the positioning information we need, because {see next response below}.

> Civilian GPS signals are limited in terms of position accuracy, too. I believe the CEP is ten meters. That's not bad, but it's not good enough to land an aircraft. Altitude information from GPS is (IIRC) either nonexistent or severely limited, too. About any aircraft with a glass cockpit is going to support a moving map display, and those do see use - but, as a couple of professional pilots in this thread have noted, during final approach the main concern with regard to aircraft position is relative to the glide slope and the runway, and a moving map has nothing to do with any of that.

This seems to contradict with what I read [1]. See this quote, for example:

Generally, the pilot will handle takeoff and then initiate the autopilot to take over for most of the flight. In some newer aircraft models, autopilot systems will even land the plane.

OK, so I don't have much of an expectation for older plane models, but my interpretation of the above is that in newer models, autopilot need not disengage before landing and require manual intervention in order to align the plane with the correct track (barring bad weather or other unusual situations like bird collisions, etc.). This is supported by the fact that they later explicitly mention that autopilot occasionally disengages. So it seems clear in normal situations autopilot has plenty of positioning available to it, enough to find the runway and locate the plane on a display of some sort. That goes pretty clearly against what you said. Am I missing something?

> On a more general note, it is remarkable to me that so many otherwise apparently sensible software engineers seem to regard aviation as a problem trivially susceptible of perfect solution

I hope this isn't referring to me, because I've been trying pretty hard not to give that impression (which I don't have). I never suggested anything about aviation perfection in general. I'm specifically talking about this particular kind of problem, because it seems to me that with current technology, pilot errors of this kind should be completely avoidable using current technology and, basically, non-problems in the first place. (Again: note that I said these types of pilot errors should be avoidable. I didn't say all faulty landings on the wrong tracks should be unavoidable.)

In other words, nowhere did I suggest that I think airplanes can fly or land themselves perfectly in unfavorable conditions. But this was quite a favorable condition for an automated system. And, as a computer scientist, what seems ridiculous to me is the idea that "Oh, but this system you just described won't work if there is a hurricane and there are turkeys getting rammed through our engines while the pilots are asleep and ATC happens to be on strike in the middle of a nuclear holocaust, so let's "be conservative" and never approve it because it's clearly going to make things worse on average".

[1] http://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/26/autopilot-what-the-system-can...

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