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The Uninhabitable Earth

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Re: The Uninhabitable Earth

#11
post #7
post #3

It sounds very grim, is there any chance/hope of us getting out of this situation or is it just beyond any action at this point? I get the feeling from the article we're doomed.

It's the little things the author mentions, that impressed me. For example the prevalence of Malaria. A higher temperature can increase the lifecycle rate of the parasite by a factor of 10. I was also unaware that higher temperatures increased sport fouls and criminal behaviour.

>> I was also unaware that higher temperatures increased sport fouls and criminal behaviour.

They also cause an increase in air traffic.

Re: The Uninhabitable Earth

#12
post #3

It sounds very grim, is there any chance/hope of us getting out of this situation or is it just beyond any action at this point? I get the feeling from the article we're doomed.

First off, the author is prodding people into action by scaring/alarming them. Thus, the entire point of this article is to highlight many of the bad long-tails (note I did not say WORST long tails, eg Clathrate Gun, or phytoplankton crash leading to global anoxia, because they almost instantly wipe out human life), which could give the impression we are more screwed than we are;

In other words, all of these happening is not a probable outcome (the article is not based on a statistical inference or climate model). However, as we climb up the \delta +C ladder, all of these effects/implications become increasingly probable. If you crank up \delta +C to +5C for instance, at least half if not all of these will occur (due to positive feedbacks eg albedo);

I would not say we are beyond the hope of any action at this point. There are two sub-sets of conventional actions being discussed in the context of official orgs, eg UNFCCC at the moment:

-Mitigation- reduce emissions directly,- eg turn off coal plants or plan to do so to dozens within the next few years, massively scale up solar adoption

-Adaptation- take actions now to reduce devastation from past [inertial] and unavoidable future emissions, e.g, invest in heat-proof seeds and crops for certain tropical biomes

Broadly, both are still possible. The former is notably more susceptible to political landmines and fossil fuel monopoly blocking than the latter, so a lot of climate scientists are urging folks to focus on the latter. Is it enough to save us? In terms of physics and climate systems--no, but metaphorically it could reduce pain like palliative care for the swathes of humanity, largely from tropical regions, who probably wont make it. The real heartbreaker here: mitigation is crucial to avoiding all the evil long-tails, but our poltical and economic systems seem allergic to it. How about just a little mitigation- eg lukewarm Paris implementation-- do we still miss some of the worst evils? Very unclear-- now we need to consult the statistical physicists.

There's a third bin too which I would call pure engineering solutions; These could involve for instance, building plants to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere [1], seeding the oceans with certain chemicals to increase Co2 oceanic uptake [2], or straight up engineering the atmosphere [3]. I listed those in increasing order of possible risk/backfiring (complexity of the climate engineering operation).

I invite anyone to clarify or add to which they think are feasible and infeasible amongst these; I listed this all for context, and not to advance a particular legal, moral, or political argument, although clearly there are a litany to be made.

[1] http://www.climeworks.com/ [2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/06/070608142214.h... [3] https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection_...

Re: The Uninhabitable Earth

#15
It's pretty hopeless. I used to think we'd adjust in time, but that was when the decline looked more linear (or at least I thought it looked more linear).

Of the many people who I know who are seriously concerned re climate change, I'd say 2 have taken truly meaningful steps .

It's not the handful of climate change deniers that's the problem. It's the overwhelming number of people who want to say they're green, but still own two cars, never take public transport, eat meat daily, live in big houses, and buy buy buy.

If you think climate change is a serious issue. If you're concerned that scientists are now talking about the low single-digit years we have to change. If you have kids. Why the *@#! aren't you taking drastic change?

Re: The Uninhabitable Earth

#16
post #3

It sounds very grim, is there any chance/hope of us getting out of this situation or is it just beyond any action at this point? I get the feeling from the article we're doomed.

Don't worry, this is a pure climate alarmist. You can tell by this quote and others: "But no matter how well-informed you are, you are surely not alarmed enough." This person is literally saying we need to be alarmed. I really didn't understand the part where they said methane has 34 times the greenhouse effect as carbon over a period of time and then changes the timeframe to bring the multiplier put to 84 times. To…

your post reminds me of when actual bad guys call the investigation against them a witch hunt.

Re: The Uninhabitable Earth

#17
post #3

It sounds very grim, is there any chance/hope of us getting out of this situation or is it just beyond any action at this point? I get the feeling from the article we're doomed.

Don't worry, this is a pure climate alarmist. You can tell by this quote and others: "But no matter how well-informed you are, you are surely not alarmed enough." This person is literally saying we need to be alarmed. I really didn't understand the part where they said methane has 34 times the greenhouse effect as carbon over a period of time and then changes the timeframe to bring the multiplier put to 84 times. To…

>> This person is literally saying we need to be alarmed.

And why shouldn't we (he) be doing that? Actually the author's goal is transparent, to shake up perception, to provide fodder in the imagination of folks to ultimately change how urgently we treat this in public forums. I thought this was a quite trenchant point (from the article):

>>Over the past decades, our culture has gone apocalyptic with zombie movies and Mad Max dystopias, perhaps the collective result of displaced climate anxiety, and yet when it comes to contemplating real-world warming dangers, we suffer from an incredible failure of imagination. The reasons for that are many: the timid language of scientific probabilities, which the climatologist James Hansen once called “scientific reticence” in a paper chastising scientists for editing their own observations so conscientiously that they failed to communicate how dire the threat really was; the fact that the country is dominated by a group of technocrats who believe any problem can be solved and an opposing culture that doesn’t even see warming as a problem worth addressing;

Back to you: >>I really didn't understand the part where they said methane has 34 times the greenhouse effect as carbon over a period of time and then changes the timeframe to bring the multiplier put to 84 times.

I also thought this statement was scientifically unclear, but I think the author was trying to say that the rate of methane release increases, thus, the impact on climate systems multiplies relative to an equivalent release of CO2 in that period (100 yrs v 24 yrs). If someone else can mention exactly how he got from 34x to 84x though, id love to hear it; i didn't get it.. I do want to mention, however the 30x GHG effect number is not set in stone. In fact, depending on the rate of release, there may be 'force multipliers' depending on how (quickly) ecosystems can absorb and use these gases. Ominously, this multiplier seems to go up anyways as temps rise. [1]

[1] http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v507/n7493/full/nature1...

Re: The Uninhabitable Earth

#19
post #14

An analysis of possible solutions: http://www.drawdown.org/solutions-summary-by-rank

Number 1 based on plausibility is refrigerant management.

I have a story about that. Someone I knew in Eastern Europe working with large refrigeration equipment hoarded the bad kind of Freon knowing it would go up in price as the supplies dwindle. Then they charged an increasingly high price for it on the black market. Eventually equipment that uses that king of refrigerant will break down beyond repair but that might take a while. Industrial equipment like that often built reliably and is pretty maintainable.

This is just one individual business owner. I am sure there are more. So officially on paper it might look it's all good and "we've eliminate CFCs" but with corruption mixed in things are not that simple.

Re: The Uninhabitable Earth

#20
We need to accelerate our search for carbon capture technologies. AND prevent the effect of induced demand with carbon taxes!

https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/january/the-potential...

Or perhaps it came time to really have a conversation about which families are having 7-10 kids?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_population_growth

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