Emails show Kalanick's suspicions about Google's self-driving cars • Hacker News Board

Re: Emails show Kalanick's suspicions about Google's self-driving cars

#21

Post by toomuchtodo » Fri, Jul 07, 2017, 6:13 PM UTC

malandrew wrote: post #20

toomuchtodo wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it's a fairly frequent occurrence to have brand new accounts on HN rush to Uber's defense. And it's pretty sad to see people rush to Uber's defense because they're a despicable company with a proven track record of breaking many laws, abusing their employees, abusing their drivers, and treating their customers like cattle. Looking through your comment history, it appears you're an Uber apologist, which is you…

I've seen at least one comment on a previous thread explain that the reason for their anonymity is due of the number of completely unmerited downvotes regardless of how well thought out and considered the comment. People like you who have a clear conflict of interest because you've got an economic interest in the success of a competitor are no different than that of an Uber employee. I wouldn't be surprised that the…

You're entitled to your opinions. I hope you land on your feet after Uber.

Re: Emails show Kalanick's suspicions about Google's self-driving cars

#22

Post by malandrew » Fri, Jul 07, 2017, 6:20 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #19

SilasX wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's like saying, if you make cars, why let Avis take the profits from renting them out? In both cases, because that car related business (rentals or ride hailing apps) is outside your core specialty.

May the most efficient vertically integrated conglomerate win then.

So to play devil's advocate if that's how you believe things will play out... what happens to the existing car companies once new car sales start dropping precipitously? There are more car manufacturers that will be fighting over the same shrinking pie of new car sales than there are global TNCs. Their valuations will likely drop to the point where they could become an acquisition target for Uber. The only competitive advantage Tesla has is in batteries, and that will likely become a commodity insofar as TNCs are concerned far before it's a competitive advantage. The daily driving distances a battery needs to support for TNC use is a lot lower than an individual looking to do long road trips.

Re: Emails show Kalanick's suspicions about Google's self-driving cars

#23

Post by toomuchtodo » Fri, Jul 07, 2017, 6:23 PM UTC

malandrew wrote: post #22

toomuchtodo wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

May the most efficient vertically integrated conglomerate win then.

So to play devil's advocate if that's how you believe things will play out... what happens to the existing car companies once new car sales start dropping precipitously? There are more car manufacturers that will be fighting over the same shrinking pie of new car sales than there are global TNCs. Their valuations will likely drop to the point where they could become an acquisition target for Uber. The only competitiv…

Uber won't last long enough to acquire a traditional automaker before technology creates a death spiral for those automakers. I'm wrong if they can find additional investors willing to gamble on the expected duration of time till that happens (~5 years at least).

Tesla has a product people will buy today (with ~25% margins!), as well as a team to transition to ridesharing in the future. They're collecting millions of miles per day of autopilot data and that'll only increase with the model 3 rollout.

Re: Emails show Kalanick's suspicions about Google's self-driving cars

#24

Post by Aron » Fri, Jul 07, 2017, 11:13 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #17

Aron wrote: post #12

Travis also tried to partner with Tesla on this by using Tesla as a source for the vehicles (not sure who was responsible in this case for the software -- prolly uber), and Musk declined. Soon thereafter, Musk published his grand plan part 2 for Tesla, which included a home grown ride-sharing network where in grand Musk style they are going to do everything themselves.

If you have the vehicles, why partner with someone who just wrote a platform you can replicate yourself? Uber has no value to those doing the actual self-driving work. They are the MBA in your startup to the CTO building the actual product.

I'm a fan and investor in Tesla, but there's 3 parts to winning the ridesharing, autonomous, BEV future and the most important part is the role that Uber has right now which is the customer-ridesharing-relationship. The platform technology is going to largely escalate in multiple places simultaneously and thus be the commodity bit. It is definitely an advantage to Tesla if they manage to get the hardware\software right via Tesla Network with a 2-3 year headstart, but the capital required to expand is so high that this head-start is less substantial than say a Facebook style adoption curve. It'll be a battle. We'll see.