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Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

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Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#171

Post by brianwawok »

sqeaky wrote: post #150
baq wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and on a close to reasonable time frame woah, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. when elon says years, it's martian years as the meme goes, and not without reason. he's getting a better at estimation but is still an extreme optimist.

But Musk's numbers are much lower than everyone else's and he usually some percentage late, Not decades. Sometimes he is even on time. He does things that many claim are literally impossible, who cares if they come 10% later and that is 3 months. If Telsa hits the production numbers by June they are still doing something that GM and Ford once said was decades in the future.

This is where I am too, I could see him aiming for 500k cars in 2018 and only shipping 425k due to some shortage. I could not see it taking until 2022 for him to get to the 500k mark.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#172

Post by zerohp »

tcoppi wrote: post #132
zerohp wrote: post #70

Not that it means much, but I saw a semi trailer full of new Model 3 on I-80 heading east near Des Moines Iowa today. All of them were black and still had factory wrap on the panels.

Model 3 or Model S? I suspect you mean Model S.

The front ends were covered by plastic wrap but I am certain they were Model 3 by the shape of the headlights and the overall length of the car. I regret that I didn't get a picture.

I assume they are press cars.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#173

Post by wand3r »

Munkum wrote: post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

There is no way anyone could ever profitably produce a rapidly reusable rocket. No one can make an online bank. No one can do solar profitably. No one can replace the yellow pages (Zip2 got passed on when an investor threw the yellow pages on the table). No one can make an electric vehicle that doesn't suck...

You might not be wrong, but the shorts get squeezed Everytime someone says this. I wouldn't bet against Tesla and the market is more than tolerant of these delays

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#174

Post by more_corn »

woobar wrote: post #140
jdcarr wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can only speak for the brakes. Teslas use regenerative braking on the motor before falling back to traditional frictional brake pads as I understand it. Essentially the motor is put in reverse and that drains off speed. That means less wear on the brakes and so they last much, much longer than an ICE car.

My ICE car has regenerative braking. So this is not something exclusive to the EVs.

Really? Don't you need a big electric motor for that... and some substantial lithium ion batteries? Is your ICE car a hybrid?

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#175

Post by more_corn »

arethuza wrote: post #86
nradov wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If electric cars are so simple, why is the Tesla Model S so unreliable? https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-Model-S/reliability-1095 Conversely, the Toyota Prius is one of the most reliable cars. Yet it is mechanically complex with both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor, plus a CVT. So clearly engineering skill and manufacturing quality are bigger factors than the drive train.

How unreliable are ICEs these days - maybe its just me, but I've never had an engine problem in nearly 20 years of owning cars. Electrical problems, suspension problems, drainage problems - had all of them but never had a problem with the actual engine.

Car guy here. Internal Combustion Engines have some pretty complex systems that pure electric systems don't need. Water cooling and engine oil spring to mind. Timing belts need to be changed, transition systems have problems with some regularity. (Granted, most performance electric cars have a transmission too, but you can almost get away without one, so I'm going to assume more simplicity of design)

Not arguing one way or another just providing data. My only electric car is an old converted Porsche. (Transmission is still there but you can basically slap it in third and leave it there) I'll never have to change the oil on that one again, and the electric motor is simple as can be. Battery management is kind of a pain, but that's because I don't have the kind of advanced battery management a mass market car would have.

I don't have enough data yet, but my experience suggests that electric cars will have a much lower maintenance load simply because of the reduced complexity. Of course all the automation and bells and whistles will still break, and the computer control systems will get wonky.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#176

Post by sxp »

taneq wrote: post #85
sxp wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The nice thing about a car with Autopilot is that it makes driving in heavy traffic less stressful. You still lose the time, but the trip is almost as relaxing as being a passenger during heavy traffic.

How's the reliability on the new Autopilot these days? Last I heard it still didn't inspire much faith but I know they've been pumping out updates.

I wouldn't trust it on high-speed high-traffic roads, but it's good in high-speed & low-traffic (cruise control on long trips) and low-speed & high-traffic (traffic jams).

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#177

Post by scott_karana »

stupidcar wrote: post #67
Munkum wrote: post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set. Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things a…

Even just using Tesla's numbers, it's unlikely they can ramp up production.

They currently produce ~25K Model X and S per quarter, and they're having supply issues with battery packs. (see the other, recent thread on them)

How in the world are they going to be producing 20K Model 3s by December, without cannibalizing their more profitable existing sales, and judging by their own previous growth rate and demand problems?

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#178

Post by scott_karana »

sqeaky wrote: post #146
Munkum wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The body on an electric car is basically no different to an ICE car. The floor is flatter and thicker to accommodate the battery pack and no need for a tunnel to accommodate the drive train, but other than that they're about the same. Tesla will almost certainly be using a combination of materials on the model 3; mild steels (cheap and cheerful, easy to press), aluminium (lightweight) and boron steels (strong). To jo…

Is it possible that Musk has solved the problem, much like he or his employees have solved countless other tech problems, but Musk also knows what makes a sexy headline. Spot welding is hard to sell as flashy and new. If you can't do it on mars, it might not make good headlines.

If Musk solved the problem, they'd be producing the Model S faster already. ;)

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#179

Post by tcoppi »

zerohp wrote: post #172
tcoppi wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Model 3 or Model S? I suspect you mean Model S.

The front ends were covered by plastic wrap but I am certain they were Model 3 by the shape of the headlights and the overall length of the car. I regret that I didn't get a picture. I assume they are press cars.

That is quite interesting. I didn't think they made anywhere near that many beta Model 3s to be shipping them like that.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#180

Post by mowenz »

mowenz wrote: post #49
imron wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we fire up the dirty, old oil-fired power plants as the generators of last resort. But it's probably still a net win if that extra electricity is going to power electric cars, because a power plant is more efficient than thousands of internal combustion engines. See: https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesla-will-change-your-li...

Good lord that is a long-winded post. Not just in scope, but the writing style rambles and opines endlessly. For the record, I'm excited for the Model 3, and would buy a Model S if I could afford it. That said, the claim in that reference is problematic for many reasons, which I didn't notice were addressed: 1) Thermal efficiency in a vehicle is converted directly to mechanical energy. A power plant must convert ther…

If someone downvote, can you point out what is incorrect? It feels like saying anything negative about Tesla/EVs on HN is just downvoted without regard for merit.
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