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Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

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Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#131

Post by mikeash »

csomar wrote: post #80
gambiting wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have some people at work who really want a Tesla. Like they would never ever consider spending 100k Euro on a Merc S class or an Audi A8, but they are willing to take on a huge financial commitment just to drive a Tesla - it's a brand + hype thing. I suspect that most of them will end up getting a Model 3 instead since that's far more into their price bracket. I still think you are right - if you can "easily" drop…

I don't think these people are a big segment of the market. When you drop from 100k to 35k you are opening the doors for a whole bigger market.

They wouldn't be a big segment of the typical market for a car in this price range, but Tesla is different. A huge number of Tesla owners upgraded from Priuses or similar, and never would have considered a $70,000+ car otherwise. I was one of them, and if the Model 3 had been available a couple of years ago I really doubt I would have purchased a Model S. (Not that I regret it in the least, I just would have taken a cheaper option if there had been one.)

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#132

Post by tcoppi »

zerohp wrote: post #70

Not that it means much, but I saw a semi trailer full of new Model 3 on I-80 heading east near Des Moines Iowa today. All of them were black and still had factory wrap on the panels.

Model 3 or Model S? I suspect you mean Model S.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#133

Post by dwighttk »

dwighttk wrote: post #93
izacus wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how realities of production get beaten by "ideas". Yes, Tesla has excellent design and approach. That won't help them magically build in volume. Or quality - even very expensive Model S cars aren't really a paragon of build quality in their class. Steve Jobs didn't promise production of 300mil iPhones in a year when they announced it.

I don't know if you've heard of this little thing called The Law of Accelerating Returns. It's the law.

Ok, I get it, do not mock The Law of Accelerating Returns.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#134

Post by sah2ed »

mikeash wrote: post #126
xorcist wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set A little context here might be good. The supposed disbelief of Blackberry was their carrier deal, as they themselves were not _allowed_ to sell phones with that feature set. It wasn't unthinkable to build it engineering-wise. (It was expensive yet with underwhelming features, a 2G phone with no apps at…

The carrier deal was also a surprise to them, but if you believe this anonymous former RIM engineer they also didn't think it was possible to do what the iPhone did and still have acceptable battery life: "RIM was even in denial the day after the iPhone was announced with all hands meets claiming all manner of weird things about iPhone: it couldn't do what they were demonstrating without an insanely power hungry proc…

The iPhone is now a 10 year old device still selling like crazy. Thanks for the link.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#135

Post by bjelkeman-again »

calafrax wrote: post #115
Munkum wrote: post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

I would have more confidence in this announcement if it was not made a day before Tesla announced that they are experiencing falling demand for their existing line and barely hit the bottom of their production forecast. Their initial "hand over" is to employees, not real customers, so it is really just internal testing and does not indicate anything about when actual deliveries will begin. Hitting delivery deadlines…

Falling demand, really?

"After delivering 25,051 vehicles during the first quarter, it pushes deliveries to “approximately 47,100” according to the company. [For the year.] It represents a 53% increase over deliveries during the same period last year and both Model S and Model X deliveries were higher than during Q2 2016"

Maybe a plateau could be argued looking at the graph here.

https://electrek.co/2017/07/03/tesla-delivers-vehicles/

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#136

Post by vkou »

jdcarr wrote: post #113
jbmorgado wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I found the most interesting in that comparison is that the Tesla, although having a lot more problems in other areas, had 0% issues in brakes and suspension. Are they using some different much more advanced technology for those parts, or it's just some problem with the repair data?

I can only speak for the brakes. Teslas use regenerative braking on the motor before falling back to traditional frictional brake pads as I understand it. Essentially the motor is put in reverse and that drains off speed. That means less wear on the brakes and so they last much, much longer than an ICE car.

ICE hybrids use regenerative breaking.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#138

Post by stevenj »

Munkum wrote: post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

What do you think is a realistic goal for its production (numbers wise) of the Model 3 by the end of the year?

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#139

Post by aquadrop »

kbob wrote: post #96
aquadrop wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think they don't know about "boring" problems? They've been producing cars for years, it's their third model... Also, Musk isn't promoting himself as autonomous driving messiah, but as Mars colonization messiah :)

Model 3 is the fourth model. Roadster, S, X, 3. Unless you're counting S and X as one, since they share the same platform.

Yes, you're right it's 3rd or 4th model depending on the way you count, main point still is it's not the first model :)

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#140

Post by woobar »

jdcarr wrote: post #113
jbmorgado wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I found the most interesting in that comparison is that the Tesla, although having a lot more problems in other areas, had 0% issues in brakes and suspension. Are they using some different much more advanced technology for those parts, or it's just some problem with the repair data?

I can only speak for the brakes. Teslas use regenerative braking on the motor before falling back to traditional frictional brake pads as I understand it. Essentially the motor is put in reverse and that drains off speed. That means less wear on the brakes and so they last much, much longer than an ICE car.

My ICE car has regenerative braking. So this is not something exclusive to the EVs.
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