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Why Tesla Is Worth More Than GM

technologyreview.com

21–30 of 55 posts

Re: Why Tesla Is Worth More Than GM

#21
Conflating market cap and total worth is a pet peeve of mine.

Market cap is "price of one share" multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding.

If you want to buy a small number of shares, you can probably just multiply to find the total price you would pay.

If you want to buy a large number of shares, or the whole company, you can't just multiply. You would need to get the current owners to sell to you, and they might either charge you a premium or refuse to sell. The total worth of a company depends on the distribution and type of ownership (among many other things).

Market cap is a fine shorthand, but serious analysis about comparing worth should control for several other things.

Re: Why Tesla Is Worth More Than GM

#22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may know much more about this than me. Is Enterprise Value too simple a calculation to compare the companies? (you seem to be looking at the entire balance sheet, not just cash/debt) Certainly GM could issue stock tomorrow to increase their market cap to be more than Tesla's? Market cap just seems a bit arbitrary of a metric (as it doesn't take into account cap structure) when you're comparing the value of the di…

@adventured But certainly if the GM entity had $10B more cash tomorrow, it might not be worth $10B more, but certainly it would be worth $5-$10B more (or at the very least >0 more)? And of course, they could use that $10B to pay off $10B of their existing debt as well. All I'm trying to say is that you probably shouldn't compare market caps of companies with vastly different capitalization structures to try and deduc…

> But certainly if the GM entity had $10B more cash tomorrow, it might not be worth $10B more, but certainly it would be worth $5-$10B more (or at the very least >0 more)?

No, again, that's not how it works. Shareholders value companies primarily based on a multiple of earnings with an overwhelming tilt toward future expectations, not based on cash. Cash can receive anywhere from a medium to a near-total discount, depending on the context & company. As an easy example: Apple's cash has stopped growing at the rate it used to (they're paying a lot of it out), while it has taken on immense debt in a short time, and its earnings have not expanded in years (in fact they've fallen as with sales, re fiscal 2016 vs fiscal 2015) - meanwhile, its stock has been given an increased multiple lately, AAPL is up 47% (adding $200+ billion in market cap, while earnings went down and debt went up) in the last year despite those theoretical negatives. Why? Shareholders mostly don't care about the accumulated debt or the slowdown in cash accumulation.

There are a few exceptions, for example if a company is under serious bankruptcy risk. That can dramatically damage the valuation given to a company via its income. In that specific case, adding a ton of cash to relieve the bankruptcy risk, can produce a greater than 1x release in value as shareholders shift back to operating fundamentals & future expectations. Valeant Pharmaceuticals is a walking example of that right now. To the extent Valeant manages to lift the dark cloud of bankruptcy off of it, their market valuation will rise (every time they announce they've paid down some debt, or sell an asset for a good price, their stock tends to spike; they have something like $29b in long-term debt and the debt interest is threatening their existence; if they magically added $10 billion in cash tomorrow, their market cap would expand by something near a 1 to 1 basis or likely greater (depending on the bankruptcy pressure, relief from it can generate an amplified upside)). Another exception example: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), the casino giant, was under serious risk of bankruptcy during the economic crash in 2009; its founder, Sheldon Adelson, decided to back the company with a large amount of money, the stock proceeded to increase by 5x to 6x in a matter of a few months afterward, due to the relief that bankruptcy was no longer nearly so likely (shareholders shifted back to valuing the company on its future earnings/growth/operating expectations). LVS gained so much so quickly, because the risk of bankruptcy was viewed as being so severe it had drastically depressed the market cap of the company.

Re: Why Tesla Is Worth More Than GM

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

@adventured But certainly if the GM entity had $10B more cash tomorrow, it might not be worth $10B more, but certainly it would be worth $5-$10B more (or at the very least >0 more)? And of course, they could use that $10B to pay off $10B of their existing debt as well. All I'm trying to say is that you probably shouldn't compare market caps of companies with vastly different capitalization structures to try and deduc…

> But certainly if the GM entity had $10B more cash tomorrow, it might not be worth $10B more, but certainly it would be worth $5-$10B more (or at the very least >0 more)? No, again, that's not how it works. Shareholders value companies primarily based on a multiple of earnings with an overwhelming tilt toward future expectations, not based on cash. Cash can receive anywhere from a medium to a near-total discount, de…

Certainly if there were two identical companies, and one had $10B more in cash, the one with $10B more in cash would be worth more than the other company? I understand it's not 1-1.

I'm thinking completely theoretically, so if the world doesn't work like finance theory, fine. But I just can't see any way in which leverage, debt, cash, etc don't substantially alter the market cap of a company.

Re: Why Tesla Is Worth More Than GM

#24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may know much more about this than me. Is Enterprise Value too simple a calculation to compare the companies? (you seem to be looking at the entire balance sheet, not just cash/debt) Certainly GM could issue stock tomorrow to increase their market cap to be more than Tesla's? Market cap just seems a bit arbitrary of a metric (as it doesn't take into account cap structure) when you're comparing the value of the di…

@adventured But certainly if the GM entity had $10B more cash tomorrow, it might not be worth $10B more, but certainly it would be worth $5-$10B more (or at the very least >0 more)? And of course, they could use that $10B to pay off $10B of their existing debt as well. All I'm trying to say is that you probably shouldn't compare market caps of companies with vastly different capitalization structures to try and deduc…

Equity valuation in the real world doesn't really work as in theory. But for what it's worth I don't think adventured is right and I find that your point about enterprise value being more meaningful than market capitalisation is mostly valid.

The "best" capital structure for GM has been widely discussed recently, see for example: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-28/hedge-fun...

Re: Why Tesla Is Worth More Than GM

#25
1) Because investors with too much money in their pockets believe the self-driving hype.

2) Because GM (and Ford and Chrysler) has a lot more unknowns and risks given its increasingly outdated dealer-based sales channel, along with decades of pension liabilities, and is ultimately in a precarious situation, see: the near collapse of the US auto industry in 2008.

3) Maybe most importantly, investors believe that ultimately Tesla will be purchased by a big tech company with money to burn (or by a traditional automaker in full panic mode). Apple could pay _cash_ for all of Tesla's outstanding stock and still have the biggest cash stockpile of any corporation in the world.

Re: Why Tesla Is Worth More Than GM

#26

It is just not true that Tesla is worth more than GM in the common understanding of that. The real answer to "Why Tesla is Worth More Than GM" is one sentence: GM has more debt than Tesla. People understand (and the article gives reasons why) "worth more than" to be that the GM brands + factories + assets + future prospects are worth less than Tesla brands + Tesla factories + Tesla assets + Tesla future prospects. Bu…

Except that the MARKET values GM's stock at...exactly what it is priced.

Re: Why Tesla Is Worth More Than GM

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But certainly if the GM entity had $10B more cash tomorrow, it might not be worth $10B more, but certainly it would be worth $5-$10B more (or at the very least >0 more)? No, again, that's not how it works. Shareholders value companies primarily based on a multiple of earnings with an overwhelming tilt toward future expectations, not based on cash. Cash can receive anywhere from a medium to a near-total discount, de…

Certainly if there were two identical companies, and one had $10B more in cash, the one with $10B more in cash would be worth more than the other company? I understand it's not 1-1. I'm thinking completely theoretically, so if the world doesn't work like finance theory, fine. But I just can't see any way in which leverage, debt, cash, etc don't substantially alter the market cap of a company.

> Certainly if there were two identical companies, and one had $10B more in cash, the one with $10B more in cash would be worth more than the other company?

Not necessarily. If shareholders believe the company with the less cash has a better future, that is if future earnings/growth expectations are higher for the company with less cash, then said company may be granted a dramatically higher market cap.

Two companies with identical balance sheets, identical growth rates, and identical net income numbers, can have radically different market caps. It depends on how shareholders regard the companies, what they think their futures look like (and sometimes it even depends just on more ridiculous things like hype / herd insanity, as eg with the dotcom bubble, in which Cisco was given an extraordinary multiple off its earnings).

Walmart's balance sheet & profit picture were far superior to Amazon's at the time when Amazon became larger than Walmart in terms of market cap. Shareholders came to believe that Amazon had a far brighter future, in regards to growth etc etc. Amazon has been granted an unusual valuation for a very long time, on the basis of expectations of future growth.

Re: Why Tesla Is Worth More Than GM

#29

It is just not true that Tesla is worth more than GM in the common understanding of that. The real answer to "Why Tesla is Worth More Than GM" is one sentence: GM has more debt than Tesla. People understand (and the article gives reasons why) "worth more than" to be that the GM brands + factories + assets + future prospects are worth less than Tesla brands + Tesla factories + Tesla assets + Tesla future prospects. Bu…

Except that the MARKET values GM's stock at...exactly what it is priced.

[deleted]

Re: Why Tesla Is Worth More Than GM

#30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your premise is entirely wrong. GM has positive $37 billion in net tangible assets. That has climbed from $27b, to $33.9b, to $37b over the last three fiscal years. Their net balance sheet is not only improving, it's dramatically in the positive. To go with that, they have $24 billion in cash and are currently capable of earning around $12 billion in net income on an annualized basis (meaning they can easily afford t…

You may know much more about this than me. Is Enterprise Value too simple a calculation to compare the companies? (you seem to be looking at the entire balance sheet, not just cash/debt) Certainly GM could issue stock tomorrow to increase their market cap to be more than Tesla's? Market cap just seems a bit arbitrary of a metric (as it doesn't take into account cap structure) when you're comparing the value of the di…

Issuing stock does precisely nothing to the valuation.

IE, imagine if they double the amount of stock.

Each stock is now half of the equity that is was before, so price would be cut in half.

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