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I might be a complete failure (after 8 years of work)

pathdependent.com

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Re: I might be a complete failure (after 8 years of work)

#71

Post by mistermann »

barrkel wrote: post #60
rue wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All this is only undermined by the fact that the financial sector and the stock market in particular involves mostly fictitious money. There is no problem that it solves that could not also be solved by saying "here, I conjured you a million dollars out of thin air, act as if you had it". The market is, as it were, a MUSH. There are certainly plenty of talented people working in finance. That talent is just completel…

All money is fictional, in that it only has value to the degree that people agree and believe it has value. This is no less true for the US dollar than it is for gold, silver, oil, cattle, etc.

Not entirely true....not all forms of money are the same. Some can be conjured essentially from thin air (US dollar and all fiat currencies) while all others have supplies limited by nature (gold, silver, oil, cattle, etc.)

Now, this isn't to say that paper money shouldn't exist, but with its benefits come some serious risks and responsibilities.

Re: I might be a complete failure (after 8 years of work)

#72

Post by shasta »

dmfdmf wrote: post #36
mbateman wrote: post #28

A lot of people are leaving comments critical of his goal of beating the market as playing a zero-sum game, just pushing wealth around, having no value for society, etc. This strikes me as dubious and high-handed, to say the least. First, as to the value of the endeavor. He is trying to, in his words, "come up with an algorithm that finds pockets of profitability in a cloud of probable randomness." If he could really…

I agree. Disparaging speculation as "zero-sum" and therefore inherently bad is non-sense. In almost all mature industries such as grocery stores, auto sales, lumber, appliances, etc., any individual seller's gain is some other seller's loss. So what? They are providing a valuable service and if profitable in the long-run are doing so at lowest cost, highest value to their customers. Financial speculation has a long h…

> any individual seller's gain is some other seller's loss.

How do you figure? Generally, the way one seller beats out another is by providing some combination of increased value or decreased cost.

Re: I might be a complete failure (after 8 years of work)

#74

Post by mwerty »

jey wrote: post #14

Seems like it'd be a better bet to apply all your skills to creating value (wealth) instead of just trying to push it around a smidge more efficiently. In other words: find a real problem and solve it, increasing global wealth in the process, and collect the economic reward.

The median startup does not offer a better outcome.

Re: I might be a complete failure (after 8 years of work)

#75

Post by lionhearted »

edw519 wrote: post #19

After eight years, I have nothing concrete to show for my efforts. So sad, so true. This is what happens when you play a zero-sum game. Even if you win, someone has to lose. Here's an idea. For the next 8 years, why don't you do something that helps others by making the pie bigger for everyone instead of just trying to game a bigger piece of a smaller pie for yourself. When you do for others, you always have somethin…

> This is what happens when you play a zero-sum game. Even if you win, someone has to lose.

That's why I quit playing poker[1], even though I was a winning player after a lot of study. Zero sum games are no good. Creating things makes more winners and the capability for an unlimited amount of winning.

[1] Well, that and the culture with all the cigarette smoke, alcohol, late neon lights screwing up your sleep schedule, and general degeneracy. But that stuff didn't bother me before so much before I put it in greater perspective.

Re: I might be a complete failure (after 8 years of work)

#76

Post by jey »

mwerty wrote: post #74
jey wrote: post #14

Seems like it'd be a better bet to apply all your skills to creating value (wealth) instead of just trying to push it around a smidge more efficiently. In other words: find a real problem and solve it, increasing global wealth in the process, and collect the economic reward.

The median startup does not offer a better outcome.

If you're only going to get the median outcome, don't do a startup. If you have a real chance at making it, do a startup.

Yes, people mis-estimate their ability all the time, but that's part of life. If you want a safe good outcome, become a doctor or something.

Re: I might be a complete failure (after 8 years of work)

#77

Post by noahc »

John,

95% of people would agree with you. But they (and you) are wrong. What is your end game? Do you want to be worshiped on HN or do you want a six figure job some where?

If you want either of those, you could just as well write up all you know spit it out in blog posts and free eBooks. Someone is going to recognize your skills and take it from there. At this point the worst thing you can do is keep all your failures to your self, because then no one can benefit from them.

Re: I might be a complete failure (after 8 years of work)

#78

Post by danbmil99 »

I suspect you could get a pretty good job as programmer for some hedge fund. Not only would it leverage your command of this domain, you might learn a few things that will explain why it is difficult to impossible for you to win in a vacuum.

There are social engineering aspects to this game that you have not been exposed to yet. Also, you may just not be sophisticated enough, or you have pursued a dead end approach. This is a very rich field of study.

If it's your passion, I say stick with it, but expand your circle of knowledge and influence.

And screw all this 'zero sum' crap, capitalism is the least zero-sum game humanity has ever come up with. And speculation, market-making, betting on winners & losers is one of the most important driving forces of capitalism.

Re: I might be a complete failure (after 8 years of work)

#80

Post by WalterBright »

edw519 wrote: post #19

After eight years, I have nothing concrete to show for my efforts. So sad, so true. This is what happens when you play a zero-sum game. Even if you win, someone has to lose. Here's an idea. For the next 8 years, why don't you do something that helps others by making the pie bigger for everyone instead of just trying to game a bigger piece of a smaller pie for yourself. When you do for others, you always have somethin…

Trading stocks isn't a zero-sum game. The value you deliver is to (more) accurately price the shares. It also isn't zero sum in that the person on the other side of the trade values what you're giving in exchange more than you do, by definition.
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