Like the author in the original article, I used to be all about TDD. Now, I like to tell people that "I'm apostate in the ways of TDD". I specifically use the language of religion because I think strict adherence to TDD is itself a religion.
I somewhat disagree with the statement he makes, "we know that most developers do not have great design/refactoring skills". I've certainly worked at places that all but ordered me to never refactor code, and I suspect my experience is very far from unique. They thought "refactoring" was a made-up word that programmers used to cover up dicking around and wasting time. From a non-programmer's perspective, all they see is the programmer spending several hours with the end result being that nothing has visibly changed. Mind you, no visible changes is the ideal case for refactoring, so you have no easy means to explain why that is wrong.
He says that TDD only works if the programmer is good, but I think it's more the case that test-first only works in cases where we have very well-defined problems. For these TDD trainers that he's talking about, they've gone through the same problem set over and over again. For an experienced programmer, if you're encountering the same sorts of problems, you know what the pitfalls are and can look ahead, even if you aren't violating YAGNI, you can still do yourself some favors.
To put it to a specific metric, if you have a specification from which you're working, you basically have an answer sheet for your code. You can then write code that automatically verifies that your code matches that answer sheet. The more like "having a spec" your problem is, the more likely TDD will work very well for you.
But I don't do that kind of work very frequently. Most of my work is extremely experimental, fluid, and in a lot of ways, its behavior is arbitrary. Does a padding of 5px or 10px look better? Should the surface of a polygon be more or less smooth? Should running over the ground be 3m/s or 5m/s? Should the user have two hand tools that are identical, or should they be different tools? A lot of it has to be visually verified, because it would otherwise require a computer vision algorithm of some kind to know that the code I wrote to go from text to screen pixels worked correctly.
It's much more design than development, just that design is expressed in code rather than in Photoshop PSDs.
As a result, I focus much more on REPLs, saved REPL sessions, demo code, and making the iteration time between code change and test run as narrow as possible. What I think TDD provides (poorly) for people in this situation is this REPL-like behavior, in languages that don't particularly provide a good REPL (let us consider RoR a separate "language" from Ruby, in this case, as the expectations tend to be completely separate).
So if I'm writing an implementation of a rope data structure as part of a syntax highlighting text editor that renders into a WebGL texture, yeah, I have tests for that. Ropes and text editors are well-understood data structures, there's lots of information available about them, and there are right and wrong answers to what operations each should have and how they should behave. But that's not where the work ends. I still need to figure out how to let people interact with that text editor, be it with touch gestures or motion controllers or a keyboard or a gamepad or what have you, and that has no easy-mode.