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A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

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201–210 of 235 posts

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#201
post #35

So low wage workers are getting cut but unemployment is still at 3.2%? Which is ~1.5% lower than the national average? Kind of sounds like this study might be looking at only half the story.

The unemployment rate only counts people looking for work. If they quit the labor force completely, they're no longer counted as unemployed. Minimum wage workers are usually the lowest skilled workers in the economy. When they're displaced they have the fewest alternative jobs available to them, so they tend to drop out of the labor force. Either temporarily, while they go and learn new skills, or permanently.

But that's really flexible, though, right? If a lot of people lost their jobs from minimum wage increases, wouldn't you expect the unemployment rate to increase at least temporarily around the same time while they initially look for new work before falling out of the market?

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#202
post #43

I really dislike this framing. By any contemporary definition I'm a "liberal": * I support higher taxes, particularly on higher income people, almost for its own sake. * I oppose almost all military intervention abroad. * I believe the federal government needs to intervene with local governments to prevent police abuses. * I strongly support public schools and oppose public-funded charters. ... and I could go on and…

[deleted]

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#203
post #43

I really dislike this framing. By any contemporary definition I'm a "liberal": * I support higher taxes, particularly on higher income people, almost for its own sake. * I oppose almost all military intervention abroad. * I believe the federal government needs to intervene with local governments to prevent police abuses. * I strongly support public schools and oppose public-funded charters. ... and I could go on and…

I know this is unrelated to the post but I am genuinely/respectfully curious (since you left it as a bullet) as to the chain of logic that makes it okay to tax higher income people more. I've never understood that. Full disclosure: if it were up to me, we would go with either a flat tax or something more sensible that an economist has proposed (i.e. Friedman's negative income tax). But that would, of course, largely…

Higher tax rates impact the quality of life of higher income earners less than lower income earners.

An extreme case would be that someone who earned a billion dollars and paid a 99.9% tax on it would still be much better off than someone who earned 16K and paid a negative 1% rate.

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#205
post #42

The problem I have with the minimum wage is that it transfers wealth from the very poorest to the mid-working class/lower middle class. Who am I to tell a homeless person that she is legally forbidden to engage in a voluntary, hourly employment contract for less than $15/hr? I would effectively be guaranteeing that she stays unemployed/homeless. Regardless of practical effects (which are ambiguous at best), it's wron…

When a person is desperate, 'voluntary' starts to lose all meaning. If you are dead broke and half starved and I offered you a take it or leave it offer to work carrying rocks for $2 an hour so you can get a sandwich and you agree, is that really voluntary? I do agree with you about teenagers and other people that don't need the money in order to live. For dependents and people that agree not to get public assistance…

Do you assume that the person will be in the $2 job forever?

Social Security is a transfer from current workers to retirees. Does that meet your definition of public assistance?

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't say that the person should take the exploitative job. The term you're looking for is opportunity cost. And yes, the opportunity cost of A is !B. Similarly the opportunity cost for B is !A. We could come up with all sorts of stuff that happens in the time that would otherwise be devoted to the exploitative job, but that wouldn't clarify the point being made here. We are in adversarial agreement.

Exploitative employment can be defined as one being paid much less than one's time is worth. So the 'slightly less bad' assessment of the exploitative employment is incorrect because having all of the time at full value is better than selling some for lesser value.

Is this the only place in town that needs rocks toted?

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Explicit endorsement?

All you're saying is "there are libertarian economists who like libertarian-leaning pop science". Sure, that's true.

Right. Just like there are left-leaning scientists who like left-leaning science popularizers.

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How do you suggest to make up the gap? How about first reducing the gap by reducing taxation of labor income, including employer-side payroll taxes (which both reduces the nominal wage necessary for livable income and makes it less expensive for employees to hire workers at any given nominal wage.)

I admit I've never been on the employer side of the payroll equation, but I'd be shocked if that was enough to make up the gap, especially when you consider the reduction in social services that would be required to balance it. Kansas is going down the "no tax" route and is on the verge of falling apart.

I am an employer. Sharpen your pencil and work it out from the other side. You’d probably be a generous boss. See what you can do.

There lies enlightenment.

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#209
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This line of thinking leads to allowing people to sell themselves into slavery. Do we need to solve homelessness? Absolutely. We do not do this by propping up businesses and properties that rely on below livable wages. I can buy some level of slippery slope at play here. But, by and large, this frames it in a way that allows sub-livable wages. So, you can think my "side" is framing this in a way to justify it. This d…

> This line of thinking leads to allowing people to sell themselves into slavery. I think there is a fundamental difference between selling labor and selling legal rights. You might say that someone so financially desperate has de-facto given some rights to their employer, but coercion is always illegal (whether or not this kind of person is likely to seek legal help is another story). > So, you can think my "side" i…

    I think there is a fundamental difference between
    selling labor and selling legal rights. You might
    say that someone so financially desperate has de-facto
    given some rights to their employer, but coercion is 
    always illegal (whether or not this kind of person is
    likely to seek legal help is another story).
I question that difference. Selling labor is merely selling the legal rights to the product of your labor. Building a dependence into the system by allowing below living wages is something I just don't see ending well.

I'm not convinced I'm correct on this. But at face value, I don't see how it works.

    Sounds like you dislike exploitative businesses more than
    you care about the homeless. That isn't necessarily right
    or wrong, but I think it explains your inclination on the
    issue.
I view them as distinct things. And while I certainly encourage ways to get homeless people feeling productive, I don't think getting them below living wage jobs is doing them a favor. Reliable shelter where they are able to get food and necessities while possibly building skills is something I'm incredibly for. And I hate the NIMBY syndrome that is pervading a lot of the city.

Unfortunately, I don't think there is an easy answer. :(

Re: A ‘very credible’ new study on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage has bad news

#210
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OTOH if they draw conclusions from data that only very poorly reflects the Seattle labour market the study's got a problem

Your commment implies they were cherry-picking the data, which isn't true. They only included data that could definitively be marked as within Seattle vs outside Seattle.

Sometimes you cherry-pick data not to get the results you are looking for, but because it is easier to do so.

No matter the reason for the cherry-picking, it does add uncertainty to the results. In the malicious case, the uncertainty is easy to predict in the direction it will go. In the "ease of picking" case, it is not.

Which is to say, it does not throw out the results. This is a useful paper and more folks should look at it. Hopefully someone has the necessary energy/effort to get all of the data and we can clear up the uncertainty that it introduced.

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